HAITIAN INTERNATIONAL(1882.HK):A GOOD REBOUND AFTER THREE DECLINING INTERIM RESULTS
HAITIAN INTERNATIONAL(1882.HK):A GOOD REBOUND AFTER THREE DECLINING INTERIM RESULTS
Haitian had experienced earnings decline earlier than most peers as the shrinking global demand for medical plastics resulted in declines in sales and net profit since 2H22. The lower base and the ramp up of the overseas legs help offset the domestic sales trend. 2H23 witnessed good rebound, both sales and net profit rose by 15.4% YoY in 2H23, much better higher than the almost flat YoY trend in 1H23. Cash dividend payout further raised to 38.3% in 2023. The results are in line with consensus. We retain earnings and TP unchanged, and reiterate Haitian as our key recommendation.
由於全球對醫用塑料的需求萎縮導致自22年下半年以來的銷售額和淨利潤下降，海天比大多數同行更早出現盈利下滑。較低的基數和海外業務的增長有助於抵消國內銷售趨勢。下半年出現了良好的反彈，下半年的銷售額和淨利潤同比增長了15.4％，遠高於23年上半年幾乎持平的同比趨勢。2023年，現金分紅派息進一步提高至38.3％。結果符合共識。我們保持收益和目標收益不變，並重申海天是我們的主要建議。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Sales and net profit increased by 6.2% and 10.1% YoY in 2023, and 15.4% and 15.4% YoY in 2H23. It indicates Haitian has successfully stepped out of the earnings decline in the pasted three interims. Sales growth, margin, and net profit growth all performed better in 2H23 than in 1H23, with sales and net profit both rose by 15.4% YoY in 2H23 than the flat trends in 1H22. By geography, overseas sales rose by 17.3% YoY while domestic sales delivered flat YoY trend in 2023. Overseas sales' contribution climbed to 39.4% in 2023, a meaningful jump from the original level of 30% in 2021.
2023年銷售額和淨利潤同比增長6.2％和10.1％，下半年同比增長15.4％和15.4％。這表明海天在過去三個中期中成功擺脫了收益下降的局面。銷售增長、利潤率和淨利潤增長在23年下半年的表現都好於23年上半年，銷售額和淨利潤在23年下半年的同比增長了15.4％，高於22年上半年的持平趨勢。按地域劃分，海外銷售同比增長17.3％，而國內銷售在2023年實現了持平的同比增長。海外銷售的貢獻在2023年攀升至39.4％，較2021年最初的30％水平大幅上升。
Gross margin was 32.1% in 2023, slightly better than 31.8% in 2022. SG&A cost expanded by 12% YoY in 2023. Operating cash flow was RMB2.0bn, 13% YoY. Cash holding was RMB10.8bn by yearend 2023, 8.9% YoY. Cash situation is solid, the best among industrial peers. Cash dividend payout ratio increased to 38.3% in 2023, from 33.9% in 2022. The increased cash dividend payout indicates Haitian's motivation to share with minority shareholders.
2023年的毛利率爲32.1％，略好於2022年的31.8％。2023年，銷售和收購成本同比增長了12％。運營現金流爲20億元人民幣，同比增長13％。截至2023年底，現金持有量爲108億元人民幣，同比增長8.9％。現金狀況穩健，是業內同行中最好的。現金股息支付率從2022年的33.9％提高到2023年的38.3％。現金股息支付的增加表明了海天與少數股東分享的動機。
Overseas leg strategy comes more aggressive than expectation, more geography coverage and a broad global strategy. Haitian is not satisfied with only developing countries, but starts to build facility in Japan, Germany, and dual head office in Singapore. They also build new facility in Serbia to serve the developed countries in Europe. The production facility will commerce operation during 2H24-2025, and fully contribute since 2026. Haitian aims the overseas leg will contribute 50% of sales in medium term, from the current 39.4% in 2023.
海外分支策略比預期更具侵略性，地域覆蓋範圍更廣，全球戰略也更廣泛。海天不僅對發展中國家感到滿意，而是開始在日本和德國建造工廠，並在新加坡建立雙總部。他們還在塞爾維亞建造了新設施，爲歐洲的發達國家提供服務。該生產設施將在 2H24-2025 期間商業運營，並自 2026 年起全額投入。海天的目標是，海外分公司將在中期內貢獻50％的銷售額，而目前的2023年爲39.4％。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Global demand recovery comes later than expected if US$ interest rate cut comes late.
如果美元降息較晚，全球需求的復甦將晚於預期。
Valuation
估價
We retain earnings estimate unchanged. The same TP HK$27.99 indicated
我們保持收益預期不變。目標價與27.99港元相同
21.7% upside. Its global strategy will work well. We highly recommend Haitian.
上漲21.7％。其全球戰略將運作良好。我們強烈推薦海天的。
2023 results were in line with consensus and our estimate. Haitian is one of the first industrial manufacturers that have sales and net profit rebound after 18 months of weak results. Haitian is one of the early birds that kicked off the overseas expansion in the pasted ten years, with the highest overseas sales contribution portion of 39.4%
2023 年的結果符合共識和我們的估計。在經歷了18個月的疲軟業績之後，海天是首批銷售額和淨利潤反彈的工業製造商之一。海天是過去十年來開啓海外擴張的早起者之一，其海外銷售貢獻率最高，爲39.4％
What really surprises us on the positive side is Haitian announced an aggressive and realistic global expansion strategy. Their vision is not limited to Vietnam, India, Mexico, but a broad and wide global strategy. They also plan to build up a second headquarter in Singapore, besides Ningbo. We summarise the global strategy as:
從積極的方面來看，真正令我們驚訝的是，海天宣佈了一項積極而切合實際的全球擴張戰略。他們的願景不僅限於越南、印度、墨西哥，還包括廣泛而廣泛的全球戰略。除寧波外，他們還計劃在新加坡建立第二個總部。我們將全球戰略總結爲：
Dual headquarters: to build Singapore and Ningbao as dual headquarters for global strategy.
雙總部：將新加坡和寧波建設爲全球戰略的雙總部。
Six global administration centers: to build regional management centres in Germany, Turkey, India, Mexico, Singapore, and Japan. It is the first time Haitian includes Japan as part of the global strategy.
六個全球管理中心：在德國、土耳其、印度、墨西哥、新加坡和日本建立區域管理中心。這是海天首次將日本列爲全球戰略的一部分。
Six global manufacturing centers: to build the regional manufacturing centers in Serbia, India, Mexico, Japan, and Malaysia, besides the production centres and capacity in China.
六個全球製造中心：除了在中國的生產中心和產能外，還將在塞爾維亞、印度、墨西哥、日本和馬來西亞建立區域製造中心。
Sales mix target: plan to have 50% sales from overseas in medium term from the current 39.4% in 2023.
銷售組合目標：計劃在中期內將海外銷售額從目前的2023年39.4％提高到50％。
Manufacturing capacity planning: In India, a second new plant in Chennai will commence in 2H24, will work together with the plant in Gujarat. The new plant in Serbia will start the operation in 2025. A new plant is under construction in Japan. In addition, the new plants in Southeast China will be put into operation in 2025.
製造能力規劃：在印度，位於欽奈的第二座新工廠將於24年下半年開工，將與古吉拉特邦的工廠合作。塞爾維亞的新工廠將於2025年開始運營。日本正在建設一座新工廠。此外，中國東南地區的新工廠將於2025年投入運營。
With the overseas experience in the pasted ten years in Vietnam, India, Turkey and Mexico, Haitian is able to roll out a full global expansion strategy. Haitian is able to run the global strategy successfully. Haitian is the most diversified industrial manufacturers. The long-term global exposure will much help the valuation of Haitian. We reiterate our key recommendation for Haitian Int'l.
憑藉過去十年在越南、印度、土耳其和墨西哥的海外經驗，海天得以推出全面的全球擴張戰略。海天能夠成功實施全球戰略。海天是最多元化的工業製造商。長期的全球風險敞口將大大有助於海天的估值。我們重申我們對海地國際的關鍵建議。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。