Key points of the announcement: The company released its 2023 annual report. For the full year of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 25.087 billion yuan, +6.21% year on year, net profit of 2,456 billion yuan, +119.66% year on year, net profit after deducting 1,553 billion yuan, +69.68% year on year; 2023Q4 achieved revenue of 5.518 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 178 million yuan, year-on-year net profit of -61.4% year on year; 23Q4 performance performance was basic It met our expectations.
The global semi-trailer business is improving steadily, and the leading position is stable; the special vehicle loading business continues to develop.
The 23Q4 company achieved a gross profit margin of 19.52%, +3.5/+1.9 pct, respectively. The main reason was that the average bicycle price of Q4 companies increased markedly and the business structure improved. Q4 achieved sales volume of 22,700 units, and the average price of converted bicycles was 242,700 yuan, a significant increase over the same period last month. In terms of cost ratio, the company's 23Q4 sales management and research expenses rates were 2.63%/8.06%/2.35%, respectively, +0.9/+1.1 pct year over year, and -0.1/+2.2/+0.8pct, respectively. The management/R&D cost ratio increased significantly compared to the same period. Mainly, the company implemented the Starlink Plan and carried out comprehensive organizational development adjustments and optimization. The optimization organization continued to generate large one-time expenses in Q4. At the same time, due to the large profit base in 23, the assessment bonus was also calculated. It has a certain impact. In addition, the Q4 subsidiary's asset clean-up and impairment accrual resulted in an additional loss of about 100 million yuan. The company continues to maintain its leading position in global product segments such as global supply chain layout advantage of its trans-ocean operation, industry leading position advantage, technological innovation advantage, lighthouse manufacturing network advantage, modular development advantage, and organizational collaborative development advantage. It continues to maintain its leading position in the global product segment such as semi-trailers and urban muck truck mountings, and actively carries out new energy structural product upgrades to give full play to the advantages of lighthouse manufacturing and Starlink planning to promote high-quality development. By region, the company's business development in Europe and emerging market countries was smooth in 23 years, and the pace was relatively fast; in 2023, European and emerging market countries accounted for 22.33% of total revenue, +4.35pct compared to the previous year, and globalization continued to increase.
Looking forward to the future, business expansion at home and abroad will help the company continue to consolidate its leading position. 1) The company actively promotes the construction of a new pattern of domestic semi-trailer development, focusing on the Starlink plan, using the Lighthouse LTP+Lom factory as a starting point, to comprehensively increase the company's domestic semi-trailer market share, sales volume and profit contribution; 2) Overseas businesses such as the North American business, Europe and other emerging markets will continue to be stable and contribute positively; 3) EVRT new energy concrete mixers will enter the domestic trial operation stage and open a new chapter.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Considering the intense competition in the semi-trailer business in the North American market, we slightly lowered the company's net profit forecast for 2024-2025, from 1.48 billion yuan to 1,42/1.68 billion yuan. The net profit forecast for 2026 was 1.97 billion yuan, and the net profit for 2024 to 2026 was -42%/+18%/+18% year-on-year, corresponding to EPS of 0.7/0.8/1.0 yuan, corresponding to PE 14/12/10 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Global geopolitical risks exceeded expectations; domestic logistics industry recovery fell short of expectations.