Gold Investors Should Own These ETFs, Says Bank Of America: Why Analysts Expect Gold Spike To $2,600
Gold Investors Should Own These ETFs, Says Bank Of America: Why Analysts Expect Gold Spike To $2,600
Gold prices are projected to rise to $2,500-$2,600 per ounce, representing an attractive portfolio hedge for equity investors, according to a Bank of America report published this week.
根據美國銀行本週發佈的一份報告，預計黃金價格將上漲至每盎司2500-2600美元，這對股票投資者來說是一個有吸引力的投資組合對沖工具。
As the precious metal surged to fresh record highs following the Fed March meeting, investment and ETF strategist Jared Woodard from Bank of America identified two primary engines driving gold's unprecedented rally: its hedging quality and central bank purchases.
隨着聯儲局3月會議後貴金屬飆升至歷史新高，美國銀行的投資和ETF策略師賈裏德·伍德德確定了推動黃金前所未有上漲的兩個主要引擎：其套期保值質量和央行購買量。
Chart: Gold Hit Record Highs Post-Fed March 2024 Meeting
圖表：金價在聯儲局2024年3月會議後創下歷史新高
Key Drivers Sending Gold To Record Highs
關鍵驅動因素使黃金創下歷史新高
"Gold has the lowest correlation to the S&P 500 of almost any asset class and can act as a haven if inflation reaccelerates or growth slows later this year," Woodard wrote.
伍德德寫道：“在幾乎所有資產類別中，黃金與標準普爾500指數的相關性最低，如果今年晚些時候通貨膨脹重新加速或增長放緩，黃金可以充當避風港。”
Woodard highlighted that "central banks have been hoarding gold like never before," accumulating over 2,100 tons in the past two years.
伍德德強調說，“中央銀行以前所未有的方式囤積黃金”，在過去兩年中積累了超過2,100噸黃金。
The expert also stressed that unlike previous rallies, the current surge in gold's value has largely bypassed retail investors. This is evidenced by a 25% drop in total ETF gold holdings, suggesting that prices could have been even higher if retail participation mirrored that of institutional entities.
該專家還強調，與之前的漲勢不同，當前黃金價值的飆升在很大程度上繞過了散戶投資者。ETF黃金總持有量下降了25％就證明了這一點，這表明如果零售參與度反映機構實體的參與度，價格可能會更高。
This gap presents a potential for increased demand, especially if yields decrease, possibly driving prices to the $2500-$2600 range, as predicted by Bank of America technical analyst Paul Ciana.
正如美國銀行技術分析師保羅·西亞納所預測的那樣，這種缺口有可能增加需求，尤其是在收益率下降的情況下，可能會將價格推高至2500美元至2600美元的區間。
A Preference for Physical Gold ETFs Over Miners
與礦業相比，更偏愛實物黃金ETF
When considering how to get exposure to gold, Woodard and his team advocate for physical gold ETFs, such as iShares Gold Trust Micro (NYSE:IAUM) and SPDR Gold Minishares Trust (NYSE:GLDM), which are less expensive than the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:IAU).
在考慮如何獲得黃金敞口時，伍德德和他的團隊主張實物黃金ETF，例如iShares Gold Trust Micro（紐約證券交易所代碼：IAUM）和SPDR黃金迷你股信託（紐約證券交易所代碼：GLD）和iShares Gold Trust（紐約證券交易所代碼：IAU）便宜。
Physical gold ETFs are also preferred versus miner ETFs, as the former offers a more stable and direct exposure to the commodity's value.
與礦業ETF相比，實物黃金ETF也更受青睞，因爲前者爲大宗商品的價值提供了更穩定、更直接的敞口。
Bank of America showed that in the long timeframe, gold mining ETFs have not kept pace with their physical counterparts, partly due to the presence of mining companies disproportionately affected by downturns, diluting potential gains.
美國銀行表示，從長遠來看，金礦開採ETF跟不上實物交易所買賣基金的步伐，部分原因是礦業公司的存在受到經濟衰退的影響尤其嚴重，削弱了潛在收益。
The expert recommended prioritizing mining stocks with a higher ratio of upside to downside beta, such as Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:GOLD) or Newmont Corp. (NYSE:NEM), to capitalize on gold's positive trajectory while mitigating risk.
該專家建議優先考慮上行/下行貝塔值比率較高的礦業股，例如巴里克黃金公司（紐約證券交易所代碼：GOLD）或紐蒙特公司（紐約證券交易所代碼：NEM），以利用黃金的積極走勢，同時降低風險。
In the mining ETFs arena, Bank of America's preference is on the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:RING) and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) as it "offers above average risk-adjusted returns and buy-rated stock exposure" compared to Sprott Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:SGDM) and VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDXJ)
在礦業ETF領域，美國銀行偏愛iShares MSCI全球黃金礦業ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：RING）和VanEck Gold Miners ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：GDX），因爲與Sprott Gold Miners ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：GDM）和VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：GDM）相比，它 “提供高於平均水平的風險調整後回報和買入評級股票敞口”
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Photo: Shutterstock
照片：Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。