GEELY AUTOMOBILE(175.HK):MOST BUSINESSES ARE TRENDING UP
GEELY AUTOMOBILE(175.HK):MOST BUSINESSES ARE TRENDING UP
Maintain BUY. We are of the view that Geely's FY23 earnings quality was better than FY21-22. We believe most of its businesses are poised to enjoy higher profits in FY24E. Some investors may overlook Geely's recent assets disposal to ease its lingering D&A burden by leveraging its parent's resources.
維持買入。我們認爲，吉利23財年的收益質量好於 FY21-22。我們認爲，其大多數業務有望在 FY24E 中獲得更高的利潤。一些投資者可能會忽略吉利最近的資產處置，以利用其母公司的資源來減輕其揮之不去的併購負擔。
2H23 OP in-line, NP beat. Geely's 2H23 revenue was largely in line while GPM was about 0.8ppt higher than our forecast, underscoring our prior argument that Geely brand's margins could be more resilient than expected. SG&A expenses were higher than expected, which led to an in-line operating profit in 2H23 (2% lower than our estimates). Net profit in 2H23 beat our estimates by 18% on lower share-based payment, tax expenses and higher interest income. Zeekr's net loss of RMB1.1bn in FY23 was also better than our prior forecast of RMB2bn. Although we estimate the IP licensing and R&D support service still accounted for about 1/3 of Geely's FY23 net profit, we believe its earnings quality has improved compared with FY21-22, especially as Geely expensed R&D of RMB3.3bn in FY23, 71% higher than that in FY22.
2H23 OP 在線，NP 節拍。吉利23年下半年的收入基本持平，而GPM比我們的預測高出約0.8個百分點，這凸顯了我們先前的論點，即吉利品牌的利潤率可能比預期更具彈性。銷售和收購費用高於預期，這使23年下半年的營業利潤保持在預期（比我們的估計低2％）。由於股票支付減少、稅收支出和利息收入增加，23下半年的淨利潤比我們的預期高出18％。極客在23財年淨虧損11億元人民幣也好於我們先前預測的20億元人民幣。儘管我們估計知識產權許可和研發支持服務仍佔吉利23財年淨利潤的三分之一左右，但我們認爲其盈利質量與 FY21-22 相比有所改善，尤其是吉利在23財年的研發支出爲33億元人民幣，比22財年增長71％。
Profitability of Zeekr and equity-method entities to improve in FY24E. We are of the view that management's guidance of Zeekr's breakeven under HKFRS in FY24E is feasible. We slightly revise up our FY24E sales volume by 10,000 units to 0.22mn units, given its current order backlog. We project equity income in FY24E to surge 156% YoY to RMB1.5bn, amid Lynk & Co's loss cut, Livan's disposal and Proton's full-year contribution. Although we project lower GPM for the Geely brand (incl. Geometry and Galaxy) in FY24E, we believe the fall could be limited, given higher portion of exports.
在 FY24E 中，極客和股票法實體的盈利能力將得到改善。我們認爲，管理層在 FY24E 中對 Zeekr 在《香港財務報告準則》下的盈虧平衡的指導是可行的。鑑於目前的訂單積壓，我們將 FY24E 的銷量略微上調了 10,000 輛，至 0.22 萬輛。我們預計，在領克減虧損、利文出售和寶騰全年出資的情況下，FY24E 的股權收益將同比增長156％，達到15億元人民幣。儘管我們預計吉利品牌（包括Geometry和Galaxy）在 FY24E 中的GPM會降低，但鑑於出口份額的增加，我們認爲下降幅度可能有限。
Assets disposal to cut D&A and focus on core brands. Apart from Livan's disposal to cut loss, Geely has also planned to sell its stakes in Aurobay in exchange for shares in the JV with its parent and Renault. Such disposal could reduce Geely's depreciation and amortization by more than RMB1bn every year, on our estimates. We revise up our FY24E net profit by 7%.
資產處置以削減併購並專注於核心品牌。除了出售利文以減少虧損外，吉利還計劃出售其在Aurobay的股份，以換取與母公司和雷諾合資企業的股份。根據我們的估計，這種處置每年可以使吉利的折舊和攤銷減少超過10億元人民幣。我們將我們的 FY24E 淨利潤上調了7％。
Valuation/Key risks. We value Zeekr at 1.3x (unchanged) our revised FY24E core revenue (excluding Viridi's battery pack sales and R&D services), which implies HK$80bn for Zeekr's valuation. We value Geely's all other businesses excluding Zeekr at 13x (unchanged) FY24E P/E . We maintain our BUY rating and target price of HK$14.00. Key risks to our rating and target price include lower sales volume and GPM, especially for NEVs, than we expect and sector de-rating.
估值/主要風險。我們對Zeekr的估值爲修訂後的 FY24E 核心收入（不包括Viridi的電池組銷售和研發服務）的1.3倍（不變），這意味着極客的估值爲800億港元。我們對吉利除極客以外的所有其他業務的估值爲13倍（不變）FY24E 市盈率。我們維持買入評級和目標價14.00港元。我們評級和目標價格的主要風險包括銷量和GPM，尤其是新能源汽車的銷量和GPM，低於我們的預期，以及行業評級下調。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。