KINGDEE(268.HK):STEADY REV GROWTH WITH ON-TRACK LOSS REDUCTION
KINGDEE(268.HK):STEADY REV GROWTH WITH ON-TRACK LOSS REDUCTION
Kingdee reported 2023 financial results: revenue was RMB5.7bn, up 17% YoY (2022: 17% YoY), and net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB210mn (2022: loss of RMB389mn), both in line with our estimate and Bloomberg consensus. Kingdee's loss reduction effort was on track, with loss margin narrowing from -17.9% in 2022 to -12.1% in 2023, driven by 2.6ppt improvement in gross margin, on an increase in subscription revenue, cloud infrastructure cost optimization, as well as operating efficiency improvement. We remain positive that Kingdee is well-positioned to benefit from the domestic substitution trend, backed by strong and continuously enhanced product capability and partner ecosystem. We roll forward our valuation to 2024E, and our new target price of HK$15.5 (prior HK$15.1) is based on 6.4x FY24E EV/sales, in-line with the one-year mean. Maintain BUY.
金蝶公佈了2023年財務業績：收入爲人民幣57億元，同比增長17％（2022年：同比增長17％），歸屬於普通股股東的淨虧損爲2.1億元人民幣（2022年：虧損3.89億元人民幣），均符合我們的估計和彭博的共識。金蝶的減虧工作已步入正軌，虧損率從2022年的-17.9％縮小至2023年的-12.1％，這要歸因於訂閱收入的增加、雲基礎設施成本的優化以及運營效率的提高，毛利率提高了2.6個百分點。我們仍然堅信，在強大且持續增強的產品能力和合作夥伴生態系統的支持下，金蝶完全有能力從國產替代趨勢中受益。我們將估值延期至2024年，新的目標價爲15.5港元（之前爲15.1港元），是基於6.4倍的 FY24E 電動汽車/銷售額，與一年平均水平一致。維持買入。
2023 results in line with cloud contributing 79% of revenue. Kingdee delivered in-line 2023 results with revenue growth of 17% YoY to RMB5.7bn. Cloud revenue grew 21% YoY to RMB4.5bn (79% of revenue; +3ppt YoY). ERP business and others revenue also grew by 2% YoY (2022: 19% YoY decline), driven by one-off revenue from the implementation of some offline SOE projects. Although facing macro headwinds, the 34% YoY growth in ARR (2022: 36%) and 30% YoY growth in subscription contract liabilities (2022: 38%) still suggest Kingdee's solid SaaS growth outlook in 2024, in our view.
2023 年的業績與雲計算相符，貢獻了 79% 的收入。金蝶公佈了2023年業績，收入同比增長17％，達到57億元人民幣。雲收入同比增長21％，達到45億元人民幣（佔收入的79％；同比增長3個百分點）。ERP業務和其他收入也同比增長2％（2022年：同比下降19％），這得益於一些線下國有企業項目實施的一次性收入。儘管面臨宏觀阻力，但在我們看來，ARR同比增長34％（2022年：36％）和訂閱合同負債同比增長30％（2022年：38％）仍然表明金蝶在2024年穩健的SaaS增長前景。
Small- and medium-sized enterprises: Galaxy maintained solid margin expansion. Kingdee's core SaaS product Galaxy achieved revenue of RMB2.0bn, up 16.3% YoY (2022: 18.4%). Galaxy recorded over 39,000 customers by end-2023, indicating over 8,000 YoY net adds (2022: 5,600), and saw 29% YoY growth in subscription ARR. Dollar retention rate remained stable at 97.2% in 2023, flat YoY. Management highlighted that the operating margin of Galaxy business further increased to 22% in 2023 (2021: 20%), and would be ~30% if excluding the impact from investment in the Galaxy Flagship version.
中小型企業：Galaxy保持了穩健的利潤增長。金蝶的核心軟件即服務產品銀河實現收入20億元人民幣，同比增長16.3％（2022年：18.4％）。到2023年底，銀河記錄了超過39,000名客戶，同比淨增加超過8,000人（2022年：5,600人），訂閱年率同比增長29％。2023年，美元留存率穩定在97.2％，同比持平。管理層強調，銀河業務的營業利潤率在2023年進一步增長至22％（2021年：20％），如果不包括對銀河旗艦版投資的影響，則將達到約30％。
Large enterprises: expecting revenue growth to reaccelerate in 2024. Benefiting from ongoing software localization demand, as well as enhanced product capability, Kingdee Cosmic & Constellation (C&C) revenue grew 40.9% YoY to RMB981mn (17.3% of revenue). In view of a strong project pipeline and ARR growth (+48.7% YoY), management expects C&C revenue growth to reaccelerate in 2024E.
大型企業：預計收入增長將在2024年重新加速。受益於持續的軟件本地化需求以及產品能力的增強，金蝶宇宙與星座（C&C）收入同比增長40.9％至人民幣9.81億元（佔收入的17.3％）。鑑於強勁的項目規劃和ARR增長（同比增長48.7％），管理層預計C＆C收入增長將在2024E重新加速。
Update on financial guidance. Management guided for: 1) a 2023-2026E revenue CAGR of 15-20%; 2) a 2023-2026E subscription ARR CAGR of 30%; 3) at least RMB900mn in operating cash flow in 2024, indicating at least 38% YoY growth. Also, management vowed to continuously improve operating efficiency in 2024, and targets to achieve breakeven no later than 2025.
財務指導的最新情況。管理層的指導是：1）2023-2026年的收入複合年增長率爲15-20％；2）2023-2026E的訂閱年複合年增長率爲30％；3）2024年的運營現金流至少爲9億元人民幣，表明同比增長至少38％。此外，管理層發誓要在2024年持續提高運營效率，並計劃不遲於2025年實現盈虧平衡。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。