Investors and analysts are closely watching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday with the potential for the first of several rate cuts that were said to be coming in 2024.
What Happened: The Federal Reserve hinted at three rate cuts for 2024, which would follow two years that saw the federal funds rate raised by more than 10 times.
Higher than expected inflation in February may lead to a delay in cutting rates until later in 2024.
Most economists are now predicting that the Federal Reserve will keep the rates unchanged at the March meeting and most likely at the May meeting.
The key question mark is on the June FOMC meeting where financial experts are now mixed on if this will mark the first Fed rate cut in years.
Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips still sees rate cuts coming in 2024, but cuts the estimate from four down to three.
"We now expect three cuts in 2024 in June, September and December versus four previously, mainly because of the slightly higher inflation path," Phillips said.
The economist cites recent inflation trends and uncertainty as a reason the rate cuts could come later than originally anticipated.
Related Link: Fed Officials Confident Inflation Is Easing, But Want More Evidence Before Cutting Rates
Crypto Bettors Make Their Prediction: Crypto prediction market Polymarket offers betting on items in categories such as politics, Middle East, sports, cryptocurrency, pop culture, business and science.
A prediction market for when the first-rate cut from the Federal Reserve will take place has attracted over $3.1 million in wagers.
On Polymarket, users deposit to Polygon (CRYPTO: MATTIC) using USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) and can deposit with Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) or from crypto accounts on Coinbase, Robinhood or PayPal, according to the company's guides.
Each betting market cashes out at $1 for the option(s) that ends up being the winner.
The current market for "Fed Rate Cut By...?" has the following options with the percent odds of happening listed.
- March 20: 1%
- May 1: 10%
- June 12: 52%
- July 31: 78%
- Sept. 18: 89%
- Nov. 7: 90%
- Dec. 18: 93%
The highest wagered market is surprisingly March 20 with $1.8 million bet on either yes or no. With odds of around 1%, the market is listed at around one cent, meaning if the Fed surprises and does cut rates, bettors backing yes would see a massive win paying out $1.
The May date has around $898,000 wagered and June has $307,000, making the first three dates the three leading markets.
Over 50% of bettors see a rate cut happening by June 12. For this market, all the wagers will cash out that happen after the date of the first-rate cut.
Based on comments from economists and the crypto betting market, June is currently the heavy favorite to see the first-rate cut. Comments from the Federal Reserve this week could change that outlook.
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