One of “Yu Xiaoli”$XPeng (XPEV.US)$Next week's finale will be announced for the fourth quarter of 2023 before the US stock market on March 19 (next Tuesday).
Since this year, Xiaopeng Motor's US stock has fallen by a total of 35.64%, while the decline in Hong Kong stocks is as high as 33%. Currently, the market generally expects Xiaopeng Motor to achieve revenue of 12.561 billion yuan (RMB, same below) in the fourth quarter, an increase of 144.38% year on year; loss per share was 3.4 yuan, and the loss increased year on year. A total of 18 analysts recently rated, with an average target price of $12.75.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, Xiaopeng Motor delivered more than 20,000 units per month in the fourth quarter, with a cumulative total of 60,158 new vehicles in the fourth quarter, an increase of 171% over the previous year, breaking the 60,000 delivery milestone; in 2023, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 14,161 new cars, an increase of 17% over the previous year; as of December 31, 2023, Xiaopeng Motor's historical delivery volume reached 400,311 units, breaking the 400,000 delivery milestone.
In the previous quarter, Xiaopeng Motor's revenue was 8.53 billion yuan, up 25% year on year; net loss was 3.89 billion yuan. Net loss for the same period last fiscal year was 2.38 billion yuan, an increase in year-on-year losses. Furthermore, the gross margin for automobiles was -6.1%, up 250 basis points from the previous quarter. Overall, Xiaopeng Motor's revenue has improved, but losses are increasing, gross margin is improving month-on-month, and free cash flow will improve.
Looking ahead to Xiaopeng Motor's fourth quarter results, CMB International said:
The gross margin of Xiaopeng Vehicle is expected to improve to about 0.1% month-on-month, but this is still insufficient to cover current R&D and marketing management expenses. It is estimated that its total R&D and marketing expenses for the fourth quarter were 3.4 billion yuan, reaching a record high, although the cost ratio was 26% or a record low. In summary, it is estimated that Xiaopeng's net loss for the fourth quarter of last year is expected to narrow to 2.6 billion yuan month-on-month.
Regarding the 2024 outlook, CMB International maintains its sales forecast for this year of 260,000 units. The main driving force for growth comes from new cars in the second half of the year. The annual sales volume of the X9 is predicted to be 35,000 units, with a gross profit margin of 12%, driving Xiaopeng's overall gross margin to 8.1% this year, but this is still insufficient to cover R&D and sales management expenses. In summary, it is estimated that Xiaopeng's net loss in 2024 was 8.8 billion yuan.
Click to make an appointment:Xiaopeng Motors 2023 Q4 results live
editor/tolk