UNITY GROUP(1539.HK):EMERGING ENERGY SAVING COMPANY EXPANDING TO MALAYSIA AND MIDDLE EAST
UNITY GROUP(1539.HK):EMERGING ENERGY SAVING COMPANY EXPANDING TO MALAYSIA AND MIDDLE EAST
Unity, a LED light energy management contract (EMC) service provider, has solidified its presence in Malaysia following a couple of agreements signed with the local governments since 2022. We expect these agreements will potentially boost Unity's leasing service revenue with a CAGR of 100% in FY25E-26E (Mar year-end). Financially, Unity has gone through the difficult years following the completion of its debt structuring scheme. More importantly, the introduction of Abu Dhabi capital in 2023 will not only enhance the shareholding structure and balance sheet, but also open the door to business expansion in the fast-growing Middle East market. We forecast Unity to deliver core EPS CAGR of 1.8x in FY25E-26E, and breakthroughs in the Middle East to offer further upside to our current forecast. Initiate with BUY and TP of HK$0.64.
自2022年以來，LED光能管理合同（EMC）服務提供商Unity與地方政府簽署了幾項協議，鞏固了其在馬來西亞的影響力。我們預計，這些協議有可能提高Unity的租賃服務收入，FY25E-26E（3月底）的複合年增長率爲100％。財務方面，Unity在債務結構計劃完成後經歷了艱難的歲月。更重要的是，2023年引入阿布扎比資本不僅將改善股權結構和資產負債表，還將爲快速增長的中東市場的業務擴張打開大門。我們預計，Unity將在FY25E-26E 中實現1.8倍的核心每股收益複合年增長率，而中東的突破將爲我們目前的預測提供進一步的上行空間。初始買入價，目標價爲0.64港元。
Company background. Unity is mainly engaged in (1) LED lighting systems (mainly EMC model and trading), and (2) renewable energy project construction. The business covers Hong Kong (China), the Chinese mainland, Japan and Indonesia traditionally, with Malaysia and the Middle East being the growth regions.
公司背景。Unity主要從事（1）LED照明系統（主要是EMC模型和交易），以及（2）可再生能源項目建設。該業務傳統上涵蓋香港（中國）、中國大陸、日本和印度尼西亞，馬來西亞和中東是增長地區。
Malaysia project the key growth driver. Back in Feb 2022, Unity undertook a large-scale energy-saving project from a Malaysia state government agency, namely "Light Source in the Darkness" project. The project aims to help local condominiums in Selangor solve lighting problems and improve energy efficiency through the installation of LED lighting system, with Unity enjoying revenue sharing from energy saving throughout the contract period. The ultimate target of the project is to install 6mn units of LED lights for 8,320 condominiums in Selangor by around 2025E. Given that the target is ambitious, we only model 1.5mn units in total by FY26E.
馬來西亞預計將是關鍵的增長動力。早在2022年2月，Unity就承擔了馬來西亞州政府機構的一項大型節能項目，即 “黑暗中的光源” 項目。該項目旨在通過安裝LED照明系統來幫助雪蘭莪州的當地公寓解決照明問題並提高能源效率，Unity在整個合同期內享受節能收益共享。該項目的最終目標是到2025年左右爲雪蘭莪州的8,320套公寓安裝600萬套LED燈。鑑於目標雄心勃勃，我們在 FY26E 之前總共只建模 150 萬個單位。
ORIX Finance to provide funding. To satisfy the growing capital requirement for the Malaysia project, Unity has started cooperating with ORIX Finance (a wholly-owned subsidiary of ORIX Corporation [8591 JP / IX US, NR]) since early 2023. ORIX Finance will provide Unity with receivables-based financing. We think such cooperation could help Unity reduce the initial cash outflow at the fast-growing stage of LED lights installation.
歐力士金融提供資金。爲了滿足馬來西亞項目不斷增長的資本需求，Unity自2023年初開始與歐力士金融（歐力士公司的全資子公司 [8591 JP/IX US，NR]）合作。歐力士金融將爲Unity提供基於應收賬款的融資。我們認爲，在LED燈安裝的快速增長階段，這種合作可以幫助Unity減少初始現金流出。
Valuation. Given that we forecast 1.8x earnings CAGR over FY25E-26E, we believe PEG is a good valuation methodology the captures Unity's robust growth outlook. Our TP of HK$0.64 is based on 100x FY25E P/E, on the back of ~100% EPS growth in FY26E, which is equivalent to 1x PEG.
估值。鑑於我們預測盈利複合年增長率將是 FY25E-26E 的1.8倍，我們認爲PEG是一種很好的估值方法，它反映了Unity強勁的增長前景。我們的目標股價爲0.64港元，基於 FY25E 市盈率的100倍，這是 FY26E 每股收益增長約100％，相當於1倍的PEG。
Key risks: (1) Interest rate risk; (2) currency risk, (3) a lack of operating cash flow at the initial stage, and (4) potential project delays.
主要風險：（1）利率風險；（2）貨幣風險，（3）初始階段缺乏運營現金流，以及（4）潛在的項目延遲。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。