YUEXIU PROPERTY(123.HK):GROWTH CONTINUES TO LEAD MARGIN AFFECTED BY MARKET CORRECTION
YUEXIU PROPERTY(123.HK):GROWTH CONTINUES TO LEAD MARGIN AFFECTED BY MARKET CORRECTION
Despite the adverse market condition in 2023, Yuexiu still exceeded its contracted sales target set at the beginning of the year. Factoring in the company's stronger contracted sales growth, we lifted our 2023E revenue by 2.4%. On the other hand, the decline of property price in 2023 exceeded our expectation, considering which, we lowered our 2023E gross margin by 1.8ppts from 17.8% to 15.9%. As a result, we cut our 2023E core net income by 14.4% to RMB3.67bn, representing a 13.5% YoY decline. We also cut our TP by 14.3% to HK$9.85. Thanks to its stronger contracted sales, we expect financial position to remain solid, with net gearing at below 70%, which continues to support Yuexiu's active landbanking. As such, we believe Yuexiu will continue to deliver leading growth ahead, and see the 0.3x 2023E P/B as undemanding. Maintain BUY rating on the stock.
儘管2023年市場狀況不佳，但越秀仍超過了年初設定的合同銷售目標。考慮到公司更強勁的合同銷售增長，我們將2023E收入提高了2.4％。另一方面，2023年房地產價格的下跌超出了我們的預期，考慮到這一點，我們將2023年的毛利率從17.8％下調了1.8個百分點至15.9％。結果，我們將2023年核心淨收入削減了14.4％，至36.7億元人民幣，同比下降13.5％。我們還將目標價下調了14.3％，至9.85港元。得益於其強勁的合同銷售額，我們預計財務狀況將保持穩健，淨資產負債率低於70％，這繼續爲越秀的活躍的土地儲備提供支持。因此，我們認爲越秀將繼續在未來實現領先的增長，並認爲2023年0.3倍的市盈率要求不高。維持股票的買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Despite impact from the deeper-than-expected correction in property market during 2H23, Yuexiu still managed to achieve RMB142bn contracted sales in 2023, representing 13.6% YoY growth, outperforming almost all peers. The contracted sales number also exceeded RMB132bn, which the management targeted at the beginning of the year.
儘管受到23年下半年房地產市場調整幅度超出預期的影響，但越秀在2023年仍成功實現了1420億元人民幣的合同銷售額，同比增長13.6％，表現優於幾乎所有同行。合同銷售額也超過了1320億元人民幣，這是管理層在年初的目標。
Going forward, we expect Yuexiu to continue outpacing peers, supported the company's active landbanking. While Yuexiu ranked 12th among peers in terms of contracted sales in 2023, the company ranked 10th in terms of land spending according to CRIC. This implies that the company's ranking in terms of contracted sales is likely to further improve in the future. We calculated that Yuexiu's total land spending in 2023 amounted to RMB59.7bn, which equals to 42% of its contracted sales. Attributable land spending amounted to RMB35.0bn.
展望未來，我們預計越秀將繼續超越同行，爲該公司活躍的土地儲備提供支持。根據CRIC的數據，越秀在2023年的合同銷售方面在同行中排名第12位，而該公司在土地支出方面排名第10位。這意味着該公司在合同銷售方面的排名將來可能會進一步提高。我們計算出，越秀在2023年的土地總支出爲人民幣597億元，相當於其合同銷售額的42％。應占土地支出爲350億元人民幣。
We expect 2023E financial position of the company to remain solid, thanks to its relatively strong contracted sales. We estimate net gearing to remain below 70%, and expect the company to continue meeting the criteria of the green category under "three red lines". We estimate short-term debt to be 10-15% of total debt, and average financing cost to remain at a low level of 3.8-3.9%.
我們預計，由於合同銷售相對強勁，該公司2023E的財務狀況將保持穩定。我們估計淨資產負債率將保持在70％以下，並預計該公司將繼續符合 “三條紅線” 下綠色類別的標準。我們估計短期債務佔總債務的10-15％，平均融資成本將保持在3.8-3.9％的低水平。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Property market recovery may be slower than expected
房地產市場的復甦可能慢於預期
Valuation
估價
We cut our estimated NAV by 14.3% to HK$12.31, factoring lower gross margin. The stock currently trades at 0.3x 2023E P/B and 66% discount to NAV, which we see as undemanding, given the company's industry leading contracted sales growth, and solid financial position.
考慮到毛利率的降低，我們將估計的資產淨值下調了14.3％，至12.31港元。鑑於該公司業內領先的合同銷售增長和穩健的財務狀況，該股目前的市盈率爲2023年的0.3倍，資產淨值折扣66％，我們認爲這並不苛刻。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。