Incident: On the evening of January 22, Bosware released a performance forecast. It is expected to achieve net profit of about 325-356 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 28%-40% compared with the same period last year, and the performance is in line with expectations.
Q4 was in line with expectations, and net profit to mother grew rapidly. According to the company's performance forecast, the 23Q4 single quarter is expected to achieve net profit to mother of 308-338 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32%; the full year of 2023 will achieve a net profit center of about 34% year-on-year, achieving rapid growth; and net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss in 2023 will be 308-338 million yuan, which is higher than the equity incentive requirements. We believe that against the backdrop of heavy pressure on fiscal expenditure in 2023, the company closely followed policies to promote revenue, strengthen control and reduce costs, increase collection and repayment, achieve rapid growth, and is full of momentum for performance.
Digital tickets, smart finance, and digital procurement are driving high growth. For digital tickets, the company grasps the four-phase gold tax and electronic accounting certificate reform opportunities, and relies on its own ticket experience to provide collaborative solutions for the medical, state-owned, retail and other fields, with broad prospects; for smart finance, on the finance department side, the company occupies the market share of the Ministry of Finance and 11 provincial regions, and is expected to continue to benefit from the second phase of integrated budget management. On the budget unit side, the company continues to provide services such as internal control, asset management, and electronic files to achieve growth; for digital procurement, the company continues to provide internal control, asset management, electronic files and other services to achieve growth; for digital procurement, the company has the highest procurement market share in China's government procurement market, along with the first share of the Chinese government procurement market, along with the first share of the government procurement market, along with the first share of the Chinese government procurement market, with the first market share of government procurement. Digital penetration The rate continues to rise, and the digital acquisition business is expanding rapidly to state-owned enterprises, medical care, etc., and it is expected to maintain a high growth trend.
Investment advice: The company is based on the competitive advantage of financial informatization, and the troika drives rapid growth. We expect the company to achieve operating income of 23.61/29.64/3.804 billion yuan in 2023-2025, and net profit of 347/4.38/559 million yuan to mother. The corresponding PE was 26.92/21.36/16.71 times, respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning: policy promotion falls short of expectations, risk of innovation failure, G-end customer repayment falls short of expectations, etc.