HORIZON CD(9930.HK):SELL-OFF UNJUSTIFIED; EXPECT PRESSURE TO END IN2-3 DAYS; BUY ON PRICE WEAKNESS
HORIZON CD(9930.HK):SELL-OFF UNJUSTIFIED; EXPECT PRESSURE TO END IN2-3 DAYS; BUY ON PRICE WEAKNESS
Horizon CD's share price declined 50% over the past two days, which we believe was a result of share sales from some shareholders of FE Horizon (3360 HK) who need to cash in, regardless of share price level, to fulfil their own financial purposes. While we are surprised by the lack of buying force, our analysis suggests that it would only take another 2-3 days to digest the selling pressure. We see the sharp pullback a buying opportunity as the sell-off is not fundamentally driven. Horizon CD is trading at 5x 2024E P/E, which is attractive in our view. We believe its transformation to the asset-light model will enhance balance sheet and earnings. The overseas expansion will become a new growth driver over the coming years. Maintain BUY.
Horizon CD的股價在過去兩天中下跌了50％，我們認爲這是FE Horizon（3360 HK）一些股東出售股票的結果，無論股價水平如何，他們都需要套現來實現自己的財務目的。儘管我們對缺乏購買力感到驚訝，但我們的分析表明，僅需2-3天即可消化拋售壓力。我們將大幅回調視爲買入機會，因爲拋售不是從根本上推動的。Horizon CD的市盈率爲2024年的5倍，在我們看來，這很有吸引力。我們認爲，其向輕資產模式的轉型將改善資產負債表和收益。未來幾年，海外擴張將成爲新的增長動力。維持買入。
Rising trading volume following the distribution of shares. A total of 160mn Hoirzon CD's shares were distributed to the shareholders of FE Horizon on 16 Jan. Trading volume of Horizon CD on 17/18 Jan amounted to 6.6mn/15mn, much higher than the two-month average of 0.37mn. We assume the incremental trading volume came largely from the shareholders of FE Horizon.
股票分配後交易量增加。1月16日，Horizon CD共向FE Horizon的股東分配了1.6億股股票。1月17日至18日，Horizon CD的交易量爲660萬股/1,500萬股，遠高於兩個月的平均水平37萬股。我們假設增量交易量主要來自FE Horizon的股東。
Our estimate on maximum potential share sales. Sinochem is the largest shareholder of FE Horizon with 21.3% interest. Fanxing KONG, the CEO of FE Horizon, owns a 20.8% stake. DCP Capital Partners, an institutional investor with a seat in the board, owns 8.4%. We believe these three major shareholders, with a total of ~50.5% interest combined, have no intention to sell the shares of Horizon CD. Therefore, assuming the remaining shareholders of FE Horizon to offload all the shares of Horizon CD, there are a total of ~79mn shares to be sold potentially. Subtracting the trading volume over the past two days and assuming 20mn trading volume per day going forward, it would take another 2-3 days to complete the remaining share sales.
我們對最大潛在股票銷售額的估計。中化是FE Horizon的最大股東，持有21.3％的權益。FE Horizon的首席執行官孔繁星擁有20.8％的股份。擁有董事會席位的機構投資者DCP Capital Partners持有8.4％的股份。我們認爲，這三位主要股東的總利息約爲50.5％，無意出售Horizon CD的股份。因此，假設FE Horizon的其餘股東卸下Horizon CD的所有股份，則總共有約7900萬股股票可供出售。減去過去兩天的交易量，假設未來每天有2000萬筆交易量，還需要2-3天才能完成剩餘的股票銷售。
Maintain BUY. We maintain our TP of HK$5.2, based on 13x P/E which is equivalent to the two-year average P/E of Huatie (603300 CH, NR). Key drivers: (1) solid 2023E earnings to be released on 12 Mar, and (2) better liquidity.
維持買入。根據13倍市盈率，我們維持5.2港元的目標價，相當於華鐵股份（603300 CH，NR）的兩年平均市盈率。關鍵驅動因素：（1）將於3月12日公佈穩健的2023年度收益，以及（2）更好的流動性。
Key risks: (1) reduction of rental rates and utilisation rates; (2) weakness of manufacturing capex; and (3) unsuccessful overseas expansion.
主要風險：（1）租金和利用率下降；（2）製造業資本支出疲軟；（3）海外擴張失敗。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。