The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that under the impetus of various parties such as policies, technology, and demand, nuclear power approval is gradually returning to normal. It is estimated that the number of nuclear power approvals will be around 8 units in 24-25, and equipment manufacturers may take the lead in benefiting. It is recommended to focus on equipment aspects such as main nuclear power equipment, castings, valves, and spent fuel treatment.
▍ The main views of CICC are as follows:
Nuclear power has the dual properties of clean energy and baseload energy, or plays an important role in the energy transition.
The nuclear power process is environmentally friendly, low-carbon and environmentally friendly. Nuclear power has contributed about half of low-carbon electricity in the past half century. It has become the main clean energy force in the world, and nuclear power is stable and efficient, and has the characteristics of baseload energy. On the one hand, the transformation of green power requires increasing the share of clean energy, and on the other hand, it is necessary to ensure the stability of the power system. Nuclear power is expected to play a stable role in the new power system.
Industry drivers have gradually accumulated, and nuclear power approval has returned to normalization.
Technological iteration is expected to enhance the overall competitiveness of nuclear power and broaden its downstream application scenarios. With the maturity and large-scale application of third-generation nuclear power technology, as well as the verification and implementation of fourth-generation technology, development factors such as safety, economy, and sustainability of nuclear power may continue to be improved. Driven by technological maturity and demand, the policy guidelines for the development of nuclear power gradually became positive, nuclear power approval returned to normalization, and moved towards a stage of active, safe and orderly development.
Nuclear power equipment has a high moat, and leading companies are expected to enjoy the dividends of industry growth.
Nuclear power equipment manufacturers have multiple technical, qualification, and capital barriers, high entry thresholds to the industry, and supply is sticky. They are optimistic about equipment links with high certainty and flexibility.
On the one hand, the main equipment for nuclear power has a high value, direct contact with nuclear components, higher technical and qualification barriers, a good level of profit, and an excellent industry pattern. It is a part where the benefits of nuclear power equipment are strong. Furthermore, castings and forgings are important components of nuclear power equipment, and early delivery is expected to benefit first. On the other hand, although nuclear power valves are accessories and are of low value, they are important for the safe and reliable operation of nuclear power plants. There are many categories of nuclear power valves, enterprises have a certain misaligned competitive situation, and they are potentially highly flexible in the nuclear power business.
The issue of spent fuel disposal is becoming more and more urgent, and attention is being paid to the pioneering equipment manufacturers.
Spent fuel treatment is a post-cycle for nuclear power. China's development is lagging behind, and there is plenty of room for equipment localization. As the accumulated amount of spent fuel continues to increase, the water pool inside the reactor is gradually filling up, and post-treatment technology still needs to be broken through, the urgency of storing spent fuel outside the reactor is increasing. Storage and transportation equipment continues to achieve breakthroughs in the first set of localization, or the equipment link that first benefits in spent fuel treatment.
Under policy guidance, China's spent fuel treatment is on a closed cycle path. Post-processing technology is a key part of the closed cycle. As post-processing technology gradually matures, Purex's special equipment and supporting valves and intelligent equipment may usher in broad development space over the long term.
risks
Nuclear power plant approval falls short of expectations; nuclear safety incidents; qualification renewal risks; project construction and revenue confirmation pace falls short of expectations; spent fuel processing progress falls short of expectations and technical route risks.