HAITIAN INTERNATIONAL(1882.HK):2023 RESULTS PREVIEW
HAITIAN INTERNATIONAL(1882.HK):2023 RESULTS PREVIEW
We slightly trim the revenue and net profit in 2H23 due to the weaker- than-expected domestic market. We forecast sales and net profit to increase by 12.5% and 18.1% YoY in 2H23, while the still nice growth is mainly driven by the low base. Gross margin is estimated to remain flat YoY at 33%. We forecast annual revenue and net profit to grow by 4.8% and 7.4% YoY in 2023 respectively. We also forecast sales and net profit to grow by 10% and 13% YoY in 2024E, much better than most other cyclical industrial peers. The decent growth will be driven by the overseas portion, whose contribution is estimated to rise to over 40% in 2024E from 35.7% in 2022. We roll over and derive the new TP of HK$27.99 by applying the same target multiple 14x 24E P/E, representing 54% upside. Reiterate BUY as Haitian remains our top pick.
由於國內市場低於預期，我們在2H23年略微削減了收入和淨利潤。我們預計下半年的銷售額和淨利潤將同比增長12.5％和18.1％，而仍然不錯的增長主要是由低基數推動的。毛利率預計同比持平，爲33％。我們預計2023年年收入和淨利潤將分別同比增長4.8％和7.4％。我們還預測，到2024E年，銷售額和淨利潤將同比增長10％和13％，遠好於大多數其他週期性工業同行。可觀的增長將由海外部分推動，海外部分的貢獻預計將從2022年的35.7％上升到2024E的40％以上。我們通過應用相同的目標倍數14倍24股市盈率，延續並得出27.99港元的新目標價，上漲幅度爲54％。重申買入，因爲海天仍然是我們的首選。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
We expect Haitian to be the best outperformer in the cyclical industrial sector, thanks to the strong sales momentum of the overseas legs. Haitian is the early bird that arranged the move of production capacity to overseas with the downstream clients. Haitian has mapping covering Vietnam, India, Turkey, East Europe, and Mexico. Starting from 2H23, Haitian's overseas new order obviously has been ramping up to over 20% YoY growth, especially in India and Mexico. With the help of overseas market, the total new order is estimated to grow by 15-20% YoY in 2H23 and would be even higher in 2024.
我們預計，由於海外分部的強勁銷售勢頭，海天將成爲週期性工業板塊中表現最好的公司。海天是與下游客戶一起安排將產能轉移到海外的早起者。海天的地圖覆蓋了越南、印度、土耳其、東歐和墨西哥。從2023年下半年開始，海天的海外新訂單顯然同比增長了20％以上，尤其是在印度和墨西哥。在海外市場的幫助下，新訂單總額預計將在23年下半年同比增長15-20％，到2024年還會更高。
In 2024, Haitian is poised to fully benefit from the global market recovery on the US$ interest rate cut cycle. The overseas sales portion would rise from 30% in 2021 to over 40% in 2024E. Downstream clients like the auto manufacturing sector, home appliance, and electronic products are moving to Vietnam, India, and Mexico. In addition, Haitian has learned from the past lesson of how to manage the risk of transferring the profit out of India. The anticipated US$ interest cut in 2024 would bring the global demand recovery in cyclical products. Haitian would be the greatest beneficiary in the global recovery cycle.
2024年，海天有望充分受益於美元降息週期的全球市場復甦。海外銷售比例將從2021年的30％上升到2024E的40％以上。汽車製造業、家用電器和電子產品等下游客戶正在轉移到越南、印度和墨西哥。此外，海天從過去的教訓中吸取了如何管理將利潤轉移出印度的風險的教訓。預計的2024年美元降息將帶來週期性產品的全球需求復甦。海地將是全球復甦週期的最大受益者。
We expect gross margin to remain at high level 33% in 2H23, due to good sales growth and low commodity price. In 2024E, we expect gross margin and net margin will expand further in 2024E due to strong sales growth and still low steel price.
我們預計，由於良好的銷售增長和低廉的大宗商品價格，毛利率將在23年下半年保持在33％的高水平。由於強勁的銷售增長和鋼鐵價格仍然低迷，我們預計，在2024E年，毛利率和淨利潤率將進一步擴大。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Domestic leg and domestic valuation may bring some uncertainty.
國內分段和國內估值可能會帶來一些不確定性。
Valuation
估價
We slightly cut sales and net profit estimate in 2H23, but raise the estimate in 24E and 25E to factor in the good sales growth of overseas leg. We roll over and derive the new TP of HK$27.99 by applying the same target multiple, 14x 24E P/E. New TP HK$27.99 represents 54% upside. Reiterate BUY rating as Haitian remains to be our top pick.
我們在2H23略微下調了銷售額和淨利潤預期，但上調了24E和25E的預期，以考慮海外分部的良好銷售增長。我們採用相同的目標倍數，即14倍的24倍市盈率，展期並得出27.99港元的新目標價。27.99港元的新目標價上漲幅度爲54％。重申買入評級，因爲海天仍然是我們的首選。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。