Glonghui, January 10 | Morgan Stanley published a research report saying that MTR's railway and retail business has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. No real estate development projects were completed in the second half of last year. At the same time, land tenders were affected by market weakness. Taking into account the initial recording of the property development profits of Sunrise Kangcheng Phase 11 in the second half of last year, it is predicted that the 2023 dividend will remain flat year-on-year, and will increase 2% year-on-year compared to earlier expectations. The MTR indicated that it will continue to adhere to a progressive dividend policy, but the total dividend of $8.2 billion is already higher than Damo's forecast for recurring profit in 2024. Accordingly, Damo lowered MTR's earnings forecast per share by 3% for 2023, and 5% and 1% for 2024 and 2025, respectively, to reflect the additional costs of early termination of the Stockholm Pendeltag project and the slowing recovery of railway and retail businesses. The basic profit for 2023 is expected to drop 39% year-on-year to HK$6.5 billion, maintaining a target price of HK$29 and a “reduced holdings” rating.