El Niño's "Sweet Tooth" Leads To Disruptions In Sugar Production And Action In The Markets
El Niño's "Sweet Tooth" Leads To Disruptions In Sugar Production And Action In The Markets
The global sugar market is likely to see a surge in prices in 2024 driven by an unusual dry spell in sugar-producing regions like India and Thailand. The dry spell is a knockdown effect of the climate pattern known as El Niño and is marked by above-average temperatures.
受印度和泰國等糖產區異常乾旱的推動，全球糖市場可能會在2024年出現價格飆升。乾旱是被稱爲厄爾尼諾的氣候模式的衝擊效應，其特徵是氣溫高於平均水平。
Driven by warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Niño has caused extreme weather globally, leading to abnormally dry conditions in Asia and impacting sugar production.
在熱帶太平洋溫暖海水的推動下，厄爾尼諾在全球範圍內造成了極端天氣，導致亞洲異常乾燥並影響了糖產量。
This effect leads some to say that El Niño has a "sweet tooth", gobbling up sugar production as it shifts weather across the globe. Speaking to CNBC, the head of agri commodities market research at Netherlands-based Rabobank, Carlos Mera quipped, "You can say El Niño has a sweet tooth because it sort of eats or takes away much of the sugar in the world..."
這種影響使一些人說厄爾尼諾有 “愛吃甜食”，隨着全球天氣的變化，它吞噬了糖的產量。總部位於荷蘭的荷蘭合作銀行農業大宗商品市場研究主管卡洛斯·梅拉在接受CNBC採訪時打趣道：“你可以說厄爾尼諾愛吃甜食，因爲它會吃掉或帶走世界上大部分的糖...”
Effects On Pricing
對定價的影響
Retail prices for sugar and sweets are predicted to increase by 5.6% in 2024 according to the US Department of Agriculture, well above the historical average.
根據美國農業部的數據，預計2024年糖和糖果的零售價格將增長5.6％，遠高於歷史平均水平。
Developing countries, where sugar is a significant caloric source, are particularly vulnerable to rising prices. The potential consequences pose challenges to at-risk populations.
糖是重要的熱量來源的發展中國家，特別容易受到價格上漲的影響。潛在的後果對高危人群構成挑戰。
US consumers on the other hand may be shielded from much of these increases thanks to domestic pricing regulations.
另一方面，由於國內定價法規，美國消費者可能免受其中大部分上漲的影響。
Opportunities For Investors
投資者的機會
Understanding the impact climate has on US agriculture is critical for investors looking to get involved. Individual investors can get involved in the commodities markets by trading futures, but this can be a complicated practice out of reach of many investors. Even for seasoned traders, pitfalls abound.
了解氣候對美國農業的影響對於希望參與的投資者至關重要。個人投資者可以通過交易期貨來參與大宗商品市場，但這可能是許多投資者無法企及的複雜做法。即使對於經驗豐富的交易者來說，陷阱也比比皆是。
Another alternative is investing in a commodity ETF, like those offered by Teucrium Investment Advisors, LLC. The firm offers a host of agricultural funds carefully curated to give investors simple, liquid access to commodities, funds like Teucrium Sugar ETF (NYSE:CANE).
另一種選擇是投資大宗商品ETF，例如Teucrium Investment Advisors, LLC提供的ETF。該公司提供一系列精心策劃的農業基金，爲投資者提供簡單、流動的商品交易渠道，例如Teucrium Sugar ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：CANE）。
The Charts
排行榜
According to Benzinga's Melanie Schaffer, CANE is trading in a quintuple inside bar pattern on the daily chart, which is currently in neutral territory. On Friday, the fund was falling below the eight-day exponential moving average, which leans bearish for at least short-term continuation to the downside.
根據本辛加的梅蘭妮·謝弗的說法，CANE在日線圖上以五倍內柱形圖進行交易，目前處於中性區間。週五，該基金跌破八天指數移動平均線，該平均線傾向於看跌，至少短期內會持續下行。
Traders and investors can watch for the ETF to eventually break up or down from the Dec. 28 mother bar on higher-than-average volume to indicate the future direction of the fund.Photo by Alexander Grey on Unsplash
交易者和投資者可以觀察ETF最終會因交易量高於平均水平而從12月28日的母柱上漲或下跌，以表明該基金的未來走向。照片來源 亞歷山大·格雷 上 Unsplas
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。