We released Samsonite's first coverage report in June 2022, “Overseas Travel Has Resumed Steadily, and the Leading Luggage Market Has Set Sail Again”. The company's performance has picked up significantly from quarter to quarter, along with the final restoration of the Asia-Pacific region in 2023-2024. This report will explore the company's growth logic after the industry's growth base has returned.

2023H1's eBitda margin reached 18.8%, a record high since listing. We believe this is due not only to the boost brought about by the recovery of the mobility industry, but also from improving its operational efficiency and further stabilizing its leading position in the world. We judge that the continued rise in the company's future profit level is mainly due to ① Tumi's expansion of scale in the Asia-Pacific and European markets, ② the scale advantage under the trend of increasing concentration of leaders, ③ the increase in sales share of Samsonite brands due to consumption upgrades in India, and ④ further contraction in fixed costs and financial expenses.

Profit forecasting and valuation. We expect the company's 2023/2024 net profit of US$406/464 million, giving the company a 2023 PE valuation range of 15-17X, corresponding to a reasonable value range of HK$32.89-37.27 per share based on the US dollar = HK$7.83 exchange rate, maintaining the “superior to the market” rating.

Risk warning. The global epidemic is not under stable control, the retail environment is weak, and the recovery in travel consumption falls short of expectations.