Soft Landing? Don't Bet On It Just Yet: Fed's Barkin Indicates Further Rate Hikes Possible
Soft Landing? Don't Bet On It Just Yet: Fed's Barkin Indicates Further Rate Hikes Possible
Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin delivered a mixed message about the U.S. economy in his recent speech, signaling a cautious optimism regarding the potential for a so-called "soft landing," while also not ruling out additional rate hikes.
里士滿聯儲主席湯姆·巴金在最近的講話中對美國經濟發出了喜憂參半的信息，這表明人們對所謂的 “軟着陸” 的可能性持謹慎樂觀態度，同時也沒有排除進一步加息的可能性。
"A soft landing is increasingly conceivable, but in no way inevitable," Barkin said, regarding the economy slowing enough to bring inflation down to the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
巴爾金說：“軟着陸越來越可以想象，但絕不是不可避免的。” 他談到經濟放緩到足以將通貨膨脹率降至美聯儲2％的目標。
This scenario involves reducing inflation, which spiked post-pandemic, without triggering a significant economic setback.
這種情況涉及在不引發重大經濟挫折的情況下降低通貨膨脹，通貨膨脹率在大流行後飆升。
The economy has shown resilience post-pandemic, but Barkin's words remind us that we're not out of the woods yet. The balance between controlling inflation and maintaining economic growth is delicate, and the path ahead is still unpredictable.
疫情後的經濟表現出了韌性，但巴金的話提醒我們，我們還沒有走出困境。控制通貨膨脹和維持經濟增長之間的平衡是微妙的，前進的道路仍然不可預測。
According to Barkin, there's a risk that the cumulative effect of tighter monetary policy might hit the economy harder in the future. Additionally, geopolitical events or other unforeseen shocks could destabilize the economy.
根據巴爾金的說法，緊縮貨幣政策的累積效應有可能在未來對經濟造成更大的打擊。此外，地緣政治事件或其他不可預見的衝擊可能會破壞經濟穩定。
More Rate Hikes? Maybe
進一步加息？也許吧
A key point from Barkin's address was his hint at more rate increases. "The potential for additional rate hikes remains on the table," he stated, suggesting that the Fed might continue to raise interest rates to keep inflation in check.
巴金講話中的一個關鍵點是他暗示要進一步加息。他說：“進一步加息的可能性仍然擺在桌面上，” 他暗示美聯儲可能會繼續提高利率以控制通貨膨脹。
The Fed official emphasized that continued strong consumer spending and tight labor markets might necessitate further rate hikes.
這位美聯儲官員強調，持續強勁的消費者支出和緊張的勞動力市場可能需要進一步加息。
Barkin stressed the importance of being guided by data: "There's no autopilot. The data that come in this year will matter." This approach indicates that the Fed's future decisions will be heavily influenced by how economic indicators, especially inflation, are trending in the coming months.
巴金強調了以數據爲指導的重要性：“沒有自動駕駛儀。今年公佈的數據將很重要。”這種方針表明，美聯儲未來的決策將在很大程度上受到未來幾個月經濟指標，尤其是通貨膨脹趨勢的影響。
Market Reactions
市場反應
The U.S. dollar index extended gains after Barkin's remarks, with the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) up 0.4% at 10.00 a.m. in New York trading, on track for its fourth straight sessions of gains.
巴金髮表講話後，美元指數延續漲勢，景順數據庫美元指數看漲基金ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：UUP）在紐約交易中上午10點上漲0.4％，有望連續第四個交易日上漲。
Treasury yields moved higher by about 4 basis points across key maturities. The 10-year yield approached the 4% mark, with the US Treasury 10-Year Note ETF (NYSE:UTEN) down 0.4%.
美國國債收益率在關鍵期限上漲了約4個點子。10年期國債收益率接近4％大關，美國國債10年期國債ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：UTEN）下跌0.4％。
Stocks continued to fall, with both the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) down 0.5%. Small caps underperformed, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) tumbling 1.3%.
股市繼續下跌，SPDR標準普爾500指數ETF信託（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPY）和景順QQ信託（納斯達克股票代碼：QQQ）均下跌0.5％。小型股表現不佳，iShares Russell 2000 ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：IWM）下跌1.3％。
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立即閱讀：悲觀的ETF報告顯示，比特幣暴跌9％以上：“我們預計美國證券交易委員會將在一月份拒絕所有提案”
Image: Shutterstock
圖片：Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。