Traders May Need Frequent Portfolio Adjustments In 2024: BlackRock
Traders May Need Frequent Portfolio Adjustments In 2024: BlackRock
Chaudhuri identified opportunities to deploy cash selectively across asset classes:BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK) doesn't anticipate rate cuts until the second half of 2024. The shape of the yield curve and the trajectory of growth will be key drivers of returns.
貝萊德公司（紐約證券交易所代碼：BLK）預計要到2024年下半年才會降息。收益率曲線的形狀和增長軌跡將是回報的關鍵驅動力。
Gargi Pal Chaudhuri, head of iShares Investment Strategy Americas at BlackRock, shared her view on the outlook.
貝萊德iShares美洲投資策略主管Gargi Pal Chaudhuri分享了她對前景的看法。
"The shape of the yield curve is now signaling that it's time to consider allocating out of cash," noted Chaudhuri. She believed that sitting in cash in 2024 would mean missing out on bond and equity market returns.
喬杜裏指出：“收益率曲線的形狀現在表明，是時候考慮用現金進行分配了。”她認爲，在2024年持有現金將意味着錯過債券和股票市場的回報。
Chaudhuri identified opportunities to deploy cash selectively across asset classes:
Chaudhuri 發現了跨資產類別有選擇地部署現金的機會：
- Fixed income: pairing intermediate duration core holdings with differentiated income-seeking exposures.
- Equities: adding downside protection in core exposures while taking targeted risk in loveable laggards.
- 固定收益：將中期核心持股與差異化的尋求收益的風險敞口相結合。
- 股票：增加核心風險敞口的下行保護，同時對可愛的落後者承擔有針對性的風險。
An interesting fact that came to light from the report was that in the previous five hiking cycles since 1990, the Fed paused an average of 10 months between its last hike and its first cut. On average, stock and bond returns have been higher during the pause period than in easing periods immediately following the first cut.
報告揭示的一個有趣事實是，在自1990年以來的前五個加息週期中，美聯儲在上次加息和首次加息之間平均暫停了10個月。平均而言，暫停期內的股票和債券回報率要高於首次下調後的寬鬆期。
Frequent portfolio adjustments may be needed in 2024, owing to:
2024年可能需要頻繁調整投資組合，原因是：
- Geopolitical risks
- Election cycles
- Worsening U.S. fiscal backdrop, and
- Shifting central bank narratives
- 地緣政治風險
- 選舉週期
- 美國財政背景惡化，以及
- 改變央行的敘述
For equity allocations, managing macro risks in a slowing growth backdrop will be key.
對於股票配置而言，在增長放緩的背景下管理宏觀風險將是關鍵。
"In a shifting macro environment, remaining invested can be paramount, but adding downside resiliency to core equity holdings could make sense for many investors," said Chaudhuri.
喬杜裏說：“在不斷變化的宏觀環境中，剩餘的投資可能至關重要，但增加核心股票持有的下行彈性對許多投資者來說可能是有意義的。”
Using ETFs as investment vehicles could be a good strategy in such a macro-environment, per BlackRock, as these efficiently adjust to rapidly changing realities.
根據貝萊德的說法，在這樣的宏觀環境中，使用ETF作爲投資工具可能是一個不錯的策略，因爲它們可以有效地適應快速變化的現實。
For reference, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:IVV), Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSE:VTI) and Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) are the most popular and biggest U.S. equity tracking ETFs in the U.S.
作爲參考，SPDR標準普爾500指數ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPY）、iShares Core標準普爾500指數ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：IVV）、Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：VTI）和景順QQQ Trust 1系列（納斯達克股票代碼：QQQ）是美國最受歡迎和最大的美國股票追蹤交易所交易基金。
The most popular intermediate-term bond ETFs are Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:VCIT), iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:IEF) and Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (NYSE:VGIT).
最受歡迎的中期債券ETF是Vanguard中期公司債券ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：VCIT）、iShares 7-10年期國債ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：IEF）和Vanguard中期國債ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：VGIT）。
Photo: Shutterstock
照片：Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。