Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and a $10 price target. QuantaSing is the largest online individual learning service provider in China, by revenue. It launched in 2019 with a focus on adult financial literacy courses, before expanding to personal interest courses. Additionally, the company operates an e-commerce platform focused on liquor, which could expand product offerings in the future. Our favorable rating is based on the company’s positive cash flow growth outlook.
Scalable business model. The company acquires customers at a low cost by offering free introductory courses advertised through online sources, providing a large audience to which it can sell its premium courses, Currently, the company has over 94 million total registered users on its free course offerings. Notably, the company can quickly develop new courses tailored to customer needs, which provides flexible monetization opportunities.
Favorable outlook. In our view, the company is well positioned for profitable revenue growth. We are forecasting fiscal 2024 revenue growth of 15.1% to RMB3.547 billion ($486.6 million) and adj. EBITDA margins of 12.6%, resulting in adj. EBITDA of RMB446.0 million ($61.2 million). In fiscal 2025, we anticipate revenue growth of 14.4% and adj. EBITDA margins of 14.7%, resulting in adj. EBITDA of RMB599.0 million ($82.2 million).
Strong financial position. As of June 30, the company had RMB764.3 million ($104.9 million) in cash and no long-term debt. Given the company’s free cash flow generation, which we estimate will be RMB370.0 million ($50 million) in fiscal 2024, we do not anticipate that it will require additional capital. On the other hand, the company could seek to repurchase shares through a recently announced 1-year, $20 million share repurchase program.
Compelling valuation. Near current levels, the shares trade at 0.2 times enterprise value to our 2024 revenue forecast, well below the industry peer group average of 3.7 times 2024 revenue. We are initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and a price target of $10 per share (ADS). Our conservative price target reflects a target enterprise value of roughly 1.0 times our 2024 revenue forecast
以跑贏大盤的評級和10美元的目標股價啓動保險。按收入計算，QuantaSing是中國最大的在線個人學習服務提供商。它於2019年推出，重點是成人金融知識課程，之後擴展到個人興趣課程。此外，該公司運營着一個專注於酒類的電子商務平台，該平台可能會在未來擴大產品供應。我們的有利評級基於公司的積極現金流增長前景。
可擴展的商業模式。該公司通過提供通過在線資源宣傳的免費入門課程以低成本獲得客戶，從而向大量受衆出售其高級課程。目前，該公司免費課程的註冊用戶總數超過9400萬。值得注意的是，該公司可以快速開發針對客戶需求量身定製的新課程，從而提供靈活的獲利機會。
前景樂觀。我們認爲，該公司完全有能力實現盈利的收入增長。經調整後，我們預計2024財年的收入將增長15.1％，達到人民幣35.47億元（4.866億美元）。經調整，息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率爲12.6％息稅折舊攤銷前利潤爲人民幣4.460億元（合6,120萬美元）。經調整後，我們預計2025財年的收入將增長14.4％。經調整，息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率爲14.7％息稅折舊攤銷前利潤爲人民幣5.99億元（合8,220萬美元）。
強勁的財務狀況。截至6月30日，該公司擁有人民幣7.643億元（合1.049億美元）的現金，沒有長期債務。鑑於該公司產生的自由現金流，我們估計在2024財年將達到人民幣3.7億元（合5000萬美元），我們預計這將不需要額外的資本。另一方面，該公司可能尋求通過最近宣佈的爲期1年、價值2000萬美元的股票回購計劃來回購股票。
令人信服的估值。接近當前水平，股票的交易價格是我們2024年收入預測的企業價值的0.2倍，遠低於2024年收入3.7倍的行業同行平均水平。我們正在啓動保險，評級爲跑贏大盤，目標股價爲每股10美元（ADS）。我們保守的目標股價反映了目標企業價值約爲2024年收入預測的1.0倍
