Dollar Dumps In November As Fed Rate Cut Optimism Increases
Dollar Dumps In November As Fed Rate Cut Optimism Increases
The U.S. dollar made something of a comeback in the last two days of November, following a month of losses as markets leveraged rising expectations the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in the first quarter of 2024.
由於市場對美聯儲將於2024年第一季度開始降息的預期不斷上升，美元在經歷了一個月的跌勢之後，在11月的最後兩天有所回升。
Although the dollar index (DXY) was fractionally lower on Friday, during the final two days of November the DXY gained a cumulative 0.6%.
儘管週五美元指數（DXY）小幅走低，但在11月的最後兩天，美元指數累計上漲0.6％。
But analysts believed the rally would be short-lived while equities continued to surge and rate cut optimism remained high. Bank of America FX strategist Athanasios Vamvakidis said: "We are bearish on the dollar into 2024 — we could see a correction from oversold positions into the year end, but would sell the bounce for a 2024 decline."
但分析師認爲，漲勢將是短暫的，而股市繼續上漲，降息的樂觀情緒仍然很高。美國銀行外匯策略師阿薩納西奧斯·瓦姆瓦基迪斯表示：“到2024年，我們將看跌美元——我們可能會看到超賣頭寸在年底之前出現回調，但會賣出反彈，使2024年下跌。”
Also Read: Dollar Decline: Stock Market Rally Explains 70% Of Recent US Dollar Downtrend
另請閱讀：美元下跌：股市反彈解釋了近期美元下跌趨勢的70％
Dollar Decoupling
美元脫鉤
In November, as investors' appetite for risk led to major gains in the equity markets, the dollar largely diverged from its usual drivers tied to the economy, geopolitics, and policy. Instead, it became the anti-equity trade.
11月，由於投資者的風險偏好導致股市大幅上漲，美元與經濟、地緣政治和政策相關的通常驅動因素在很大程度上有所不同。相反，它變成了反股權交易。
As the S&P 500 stock index climbed 8.9% during November, the dollar index (DXY) fell 3.1%. During the same period, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), an exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500, gained 9.1%.
標準普爾500指數在11月份上漲8.9％，美元指數（DXY）下跌3.1％。同期，追蹤標準普爾500指數的交易所交易基金SPDR標準普爾500指數ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPY）上漲9.1％。
Among the major currency crosses, the dollar's worst performance during November was against the New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) — down 4.6%. The dollar lost 3.6% versus the British pound (GBP/USD) and was down 2.6% against the euro (EUR/USD).
在主要貨幣交叉盤中，美元在11月份表現最差的是兌新西蘭元（NZD/USD），下跌4.6％。美元兌英鎊（英鎊/美元）下跌3.6％，兌歐元（歐元/美元）下跌2.6％。
The performance of exchange traded funds tracking investment behavior in the dollar also illustrated market sentiment towards the U.S. currency. The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) fell 2.5% during November, while the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (NYSE:UDN) rose 3.3%.
追蹤美元投資行爲的交易所交易基金的表現也說明了市場對美元的情緒。景順數據庫美元指數看漲基金ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：UUP）在11月份下跌2.5％，而景順數據庫美元指數看跌基金（紐約證券交易所代碼：UDN）上漲3.3％。
Treasury Market Rally — Yields Retreat From 5%
美國國債市場反彈—收益率從5％回落
The biggest market driver during the month was rising expectations that the Federal Reserve had ended its cycle of interest rate hikes, after the central bank left its main Fed Funds Rate at 5.25%-5.5% at its September and November policy meetings.
本月最大的市場驅動力是人們對美聯儲結束加息週期的預期不斷提高，此前美聯儲在9月和11月的政策會議上將主要聯邦基金利率維持在5.25％-5.5％。
Expectations of a more dovish Fed at the Dec. 13 meeting were further driven by data that showed inflation becoming more benign. Consumer price data in early November showed the annual headline inflation rate dropping to 3.2%, while the rate as measured by personal consumption expenditures — the Fed's favored measure — fell to 3%. The Fed's target rate is 2%.
數據顯示，通貨膨脹變得更加溫和，這進一步推動了人們對美聯儲在12月13日會議上表現更加鴿派的預期。11月初的消費者物價數據顯示，年度總體通貨膨脹率降至3.2％，而以個人消費支出（美聯儲青睞的衡量標準）衡量的通貨膨脹率降至3％。美聯儲的目標利率爲2％。
Hopes of a more dovish Fed also spurred a rally in the U.S. government bonds market. Prices climbed, driving yields lower from 16-year highs. Having peaked at 5.02% in October, the 10-year Treasury yield was down to 4.32% on Friday.
美聯儲更加鴿派的希望也刺激了美國政府債券市場的上漲。價格攀升，推動收益率從16年高點下降。10年期美國國債收益率在10月份達到5.02％的峯值，週五跌至4.32％。
The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:AGG), an exchange traded fund that tracks the broad U.S. bond market, gained 4.3% during November.
追蹤整個美國債券市場的交易所交易基金iShares Core美國綜合債券ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：AGG）在11月份上漲4.3％。
Now Read: November Rally Sets Treasury Bonds On Track For Best Month In 40 Years
立即閱讀：11月的漲勢使美國國債有望創下40年來最好的月份
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。