The stock of real estate brokerage firm RE/MAX Holdings Inc (NYSE:RMAX), short for Real Estate Maximums, was downgraded to underweight on Nov. 6 by Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).
The investment bank identified the NAR ruling as a key risk.
"NAR ruling increases risk of further litigation and costly settlements," said the note. Housing strategists at Morgan Stanley expect 2024 to present a challenging backdrop to the company. Accordingly, the firm re-adjusted its EBITDA and EPS expectations, leading to a $10.50 drop in their price target.
The RMAX Analyst: Morgan Stanley analyst Ronald Kamdem, CFA had a revised price target of $9 with an Underweight rating. The firm used a 6.5x multiple, representing a 6% discount to CRE brokers (at 6.9x) and a 34% discount to RMAX 5-year historical average.
The stock was earlier rated Equal-weight with a price target of $19.50.
The RMAX Takeaways: Morgan Stanley analysts laid out five risks that could weigh down the stock's multiple:
- The risk of additional litigation and costly settlement
- Earnings risk , given RMAX's direct exposure to broker fees
- Limited ability to return capital to shareholders
- 8% mortgage rate remains an ongoing headwind
- Management transition at a time of ongoing litigation exposes the firm to execution risk
RMAX Price Action: RMAX was trading down 10.19% at $9.70 at publication Tuesday.
11月6日，摩根士丹利NYSE:MS)將房地產經紀公司RE/MAX Holdings公司(NYSE:RMAX)（Real Estate Maximums 的簡稱）的股票評級下調至減持。
該投資銀行將NAR的裁決確定爲關鍵風險。
該報告說：“NAR的裁決增加了進一步訴訟和昂貴和解的風險。”摩根士丹利的住房策略師預計，2024年將爲公司帶來充滿挑戰的背景。因此，該公司重新調整了其息稅折舊攤銷前利潤和每股收益預期，導致其目標股價下跌10.50美元。
RMAX分析師： 摩根士丹利分析師 Ronald Kamdem，CFA 修改後的目標股價爲9美元，評級爲減持。該公司使用了6.5倍的倍數，相當於CRE經紀商的6％折扣（6.9倍），比RMAX的5年曆史平均水平折扣34％。
該股早些時候被評爲同等權重，目標股價爲19.50美元。
RMAX要點： 摩根士丹利分析師列出了五種可能壓低該股倍數的風險：
額外訴訟和昂貴和解的風險
鑑於RMAX直接面臨經紀人費用，收益風險
向股東返還資本的能力有限
8％的抵押貸款利率仍然是一個持續的不利因素
在訴訟持續之際，管理層的過渡使公司面臨執行風險
RMAX 價格走勢： 週二公佈時，RMAX交易價格下跌10.19％，至9.70美元。
