GUANGDONG PROVINCIAL EXPRESSWAY DEV'T(000429):3Q23 RESULTS IN LINE; HIGH DIVIDEND OFFERS INVESTMENT VALUE
GUANGDONG PROVINCIAL EXPRESSWAY DEV'T(000429):3Q23 RESULTS IN LINE; HIGH DIVIDEND OFFERS INVESTMENT VALUE
3Q23 results in line with our forecast
23 年第 3 季度的業績符合我們的預測
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development (GPED) announced its 3Q23 results: Revenue rose 9.5% YoY (after retrospective adjustment) and 13.6% QoQ to Rmb1.35bn. Net profit attributable to shareholders rose 12.8% YoY (after retrospective adjustment) to Rmb471mn, in line with our expectations.
廣東省高速公路發展（GPED）公佈了23年第三季度業績：收入同比增長9.5％（經回顧性調整），同比增長13.6％，至13.5億元人民幣。歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比增長12.8％（經追溯調整），至4.71億元人民幣，符合我們的預期。
In 1-3Q23, revenue rose 12.2% YoY (after retroactive adjustment) to Rmb3.69bn, and attributable net profit grew 13.9% YoY to Rmb1.36bn (after retrospective adjustment). GPED made Rmb68.79mn of provisions for impairment of management and maintenance expenses it incurred for Guangfo Expressway.
在 1-3Q23 中，收入同比增長12.2％（經追溯調整）至36.9億元人民幣，應占淨利潤同比增長13.9％至13.6億元人民幣（經追溯調整）。GPED爲廣佛高速公路產生的管理和維護費用減值準備了6,879萬元人民幣。
Trends to watch Vehicle traffic grows rapidly in summer peak season; earnings grow
趨勢是夏季旺季車輛交通量迅速增長；收益增長
at double digits. The firm's core road assets are located in the Pearl River Delta region, with a high proportion of buses. In 3Q23, the firm's revenue and earnings recorded double-digit YoY growth thanks to the summer peak season.
以兩位數表示。該公司的核心道路資產位於珠江三角洲地區，公交車比例很高。由於夏季旺季，該公司的收入和收益在23年第三季度實現了兩位數的同比增長。
Data from Transport Planning and Research Institute (TPRI), Ministry of Transport shows that China's vehicle traffic on expressways grew 16%, 25%, and 26% YoY in July, August, and September, with passenger vehicle traffic recovering notably (up 22%, 34%, and 38% YoY). Rapid traffic growth in 3Q23 drove double-digit earnings growth of the firm.
來自交通運輸部交通規劃研究所（TPRI）的數據顯示，7月、8月和9月，中國高速公路上的車輛交通量同比增長16％、25％和26％，客運量顯著恢復（同比增長22％、34％和38％）。23 年第 3 季度的快速流量增長推動了公司的兩位數收益增長。
Plans to increase investment in reconstruction and expansion project of Guangdong-Zhaoqing Expressway to sustain core business.
計劃增加對粵肇高速公路改擴建項目的投資，以維持核心業務。
According to corporate filings, the firm plans to increase its investment in Zhaoqing Yuezhao Highway Co., Ltd. (Yuezhao) for the reconstruction and expansion project of the Yuejing Hengjiang-Ma'an section of the G80 Guangzhou-Kunming Expressway. The firm will bear the capital contribution of Rmb0.8bn according to the 25% share ratio of Yuezhao.
公司文件顯示，該公司計劃增加對肇慶樂照公路有限公司（越照）的投資，用於G80廣昆高速公路悅景橫江-馬安段的重建和擴建項目。根據悅兆25％的股權比例，該公司將承擔80億元人民幣的出資。
The internal rate of return (IRR) of the capital is 5.23%, higher than the current long-term loan interest rate of 4.2%. We think this project may be profitable.
資本的內部收益率（IRR）爲5.23％，高於當前4.2％的長期貸款利率。我們認爲這個項目可能有利可圖。
We believe the firm continues to expand its expressway business. In addition to the Yuezhao project, the reconstruction and expansion project of Guangzhu section of Jingzhu Expressway (core road asset), Jiangzhong Expressway (Jingzhu Expressway), and Shenzhen Huiyan Expressway (in which it holds stakes) are also progressing. We expect the toll collection period of the firm's road assets to be extended, ensuring steady growth of toll revenue in the long term.
我們相信該公司將繼續擴大其高速公路業務。除越照項目外，京珠高速公路廣珠段（核心道路資產）、江中高速公路（京珠高速公路）和深圳惠延高速公路（其持有股份）的重建和擴建項目也在進行中。我們預計，公司道路資產的收費期限將延長，從而確保通行費收入的長期穩定增長。
Dividend payout ratio leading the industry; strong defensive value.
股息支付率領先行業；強大的防禦價值。
According to the firm's announcement on shareholder return plan for the next three years (2021-2023), its dividend payout ratio for 2021-2023 should be no less than 70%, one of the highest among listed expressway companies. Based on current prices, we expect the firm's dividend yields to be 6.7% and 7.1% for 2023 and 2024, offering strong defensive value.
根據該公司關於未來三年（2021-2023）股東回報計劃的公告，其2021-2023年的股息支付率應不低於70％，是上市高速公路公司中最高的之一。根據目前的價格，我們預計該公司在2023年和2024年的股息收益率分別爲6.7％和7.1％，具有強大的防禦價值。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We maintain our 2023 and 2024 earnings forecasts. A-shares are trading at 10.4x 2023e and 9.8x 2024e P/E.We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating. Given visible earnings growth and rising market recognition of high- dividend names, we raise our target price 8.8% to Rmb9.6, implying 12.0x 2023e P/E and 11.3x 2024e P/E, offering 15.0% upside.
我們維持對2023年和2024年的收益預測。A股的市盈率爲2023年的10.4倍，市盈率爲2024年的9.8倍。我們維持跑贏大盤的評級。鑑於可見的收益增長以及市場對高股息公司的認可度不斷提高，我們將目標價上調8.8％，至人民幣9.6元，這意味着2023年市盈率爲12.0倍，2024年市盈率爲11.3倍，上漲空間爲15.0％。
Risks
風險
Slower-than-expected economic growth and/or progress of reconstruction and expansion projects.
經濟增長和/或重建和擴建項目的進展低於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。