ASIA CUANON TECHNOLOGY(SHANGHAI)(603378):3Q23 PROFIT STABLE; AWAITING DEMAND RECOVERY
ASIA CUANON TECHNOLOGY(SHANGHAI)(603378):3Q23 PROFIT STABLE; AWAITING DEMAND RECOVERY
ASP of engineering coatings fell 12% QoQ (-17% YoY), weighing on revenue growth. 2) The firm continued to adjust its product mix of the thermal insulation segment: In 1-3Q23, revenue from the thermal insulation segment dropped 10% YoY to Rmb489mn (+27%, -14%, and -18% YoY in 1Q23, 2Q23 and 3Q23). Specifically, revenue from decorated insulation panels increased 10% YoY to Rmb305mn in 1-3Q23, and that from thermal insulation materials fell 30% YoY. 3) The waterproofing business maintained rapid growth: In 1-3Q23, revenue from the waterproofing segment jumped 83% YoY to Rmb189mn (+99% YoY in 3Q23).3Q23 results slightly miss our expectations
23 年第 3 季度的業績略低於我們的預期
Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) announced its 1-3Q23 results: Revenue rose 2.4% YoY to Rmb2.39bn, and attributable net profit grew 15.7% YoY to Rmb80.98mn. In 3Q23, revenue fell 1.7% YoY to Rmb902mn and net profit rose 11% YoY to Rmb41.77mn. The results miss our expectations mainly due to lower-than-expected GM.
亞洲冠能科技（上海）公佈其 1-3Q23 業績：收入同比增長2.4％，至人民幣23.9億元，應占淨利潤同比增長15.7％，至8,098萬元人民幣。在23年第三季度，收入同比下降1.7％，至人民幣9.02億元，淨利潤同比增長11％，至4.177億元人民幣。業績未達到我們的預期，這主要是由於通用汽車低於預期。
Continued adjustments in revenue structure. 1) Revenue growth slowed amid falling ASP of engineering coatings: In 1-3Q23, sales volume of coatings grew 11% YoY to 520,000t (+4%, +13% and +12% YoY in 1Q23, 2Q23 and 3Q23), and revenue of the coatings segment rose 1.59% YoY to Rmb1.65bn (-8%, +11% and -2% YoY in 1Q23, 2Q23 and 3Q23).
收入結構的持續調整。1) 在工程塗料銷售價格下降的情況下，收入增長放緩：在 1-3Q23 中，塗料銷量同比增長11％，達到52萬噸（23年第一季度、第二季度和3季度同比增長4％、增長13％和12％），塗料板塊的收入同比增長1.59％，至人民幣16.5億元（1季度、2季度和2％）3Q23)。
ASP of engineering coatings fell 12% QoQ (-17% YoY), weighing on revenue growth. 2) The firm continued to adjust its product mix of the thermal insulation segment: In 1-3Q23, revenue from the thermal insulation segment dropped 10% YoY to Rmb489mn (+27%, -14%, and -18% YoY in 1Q23, 2Q23 and 3Q23). Specifically, revenue from decorated insulation panels increased 10% YoY to Rmb305mn in 1-3Q23, and that from thermal insulation materials fell 30% YoY. 3) The waterproofing business maintained rapid growth: In 1-3Q23, revenue from the waterproofing segment jumped 83% YoY to Rmb189mn (+99% YoY in 3Q23).
工程塗料的ASP同比下降12％（同比下降17％），打壓了收入的增長。2）該公司繼續調整其隔熱板塊的產品組合：在 1-3Q23 中，隔熱板塊的收入同比下降10％，至4.89億元人民幣（23年第一季度、第二季度和23年第三季度同比增長27％、-14％和-18％）。具體而言，1-3Q23 中裝飾隔熱板的收入同比增長10％至人民幣3.05億元，保溫材料收入同比下降30％。3）防水業務保持快速增長：在 1-3Q23，防水板塊的收入同比增長83％，達到人民幣1.89億元（23年第三季度同比增長99％）。
GM under short-term pressure; expense ratio continued to shrink. 1) GM fell QoQ due to falling revenue contribution from and prices of coating products: In 3Q23, GM fell 3.5ppt QoQ (-2.8ppt YoY) to 29.9% due to QoQ decline in prices of high-GM coating products and falling proportion of revenue from such products (revenue contribution from coatings fell 3ppt from 2Q23 to 67% in 3Q23). 2) Efforts to cut expenses continued: In 1- 3Q23, the firm's expenses were reduced rapidly thanks to improved efficiency and a YoY decline in headcount. Selling, R&D, and G&A expenses fell 21%, 13%, and 3.5% YoY in 1-3Q23. Overall expense ratio fell 4ppt YoY to 20.5% in 3Q23 (+2.1ppt QoQ). 3) Operating profit margin fell slightly: The firm's credit impairment loss reached Rmb31mn in 3Q23. Excluding the impact of the impairment loss, operating profit margin dropped 6ppt QoQ to 8.4% in 3Q23. 4) Increased payables bolstered cash flow improvement: In 1-3Q23, net operating cash flow rose Rmb215mn YoY to an inflow of Rmb65.53mn, with cash-to- revenue ratio down 13ppt YoY to 94.9%. Payables grew Rmb408mn in 3Q23 compared with end-2022. 5) High gearing ratio: The firm's debt-to- asset ratio remained stable at 75% and net gearing ratio was 105%
通用汽車面臨短期壓力；支出比率繼續萎縮。1）由於塗料產品的收入貢獻和價格下降，通用汽車環比下降：由於高轉基因塗料產品價格同比下降3.5個百分點（同比下降2.8個百分點），至29.9％，這要歸因於高轉基因塗料產品價格的季度下降以及此類產品的收入比例下降（塗料收入貢獻從第二季度下降3個百分點，至23第三季度的67％）。2) 削減開支的努力仍在繼續：在23年第一至第三季度，由於效率的提高和員工人數同比下降，公司的支出迅速減少。1-3Q23 的銷售、研發和併購支出同比下降21％、13％和3.5％。23年第三季度整體支出比率同比下降4個百分點至20.5％（環比上漲2.1個百分點）。3）營業利潤率略有下降：該公司的信用減值虧損在23年第三季度達到3100萬元人民幣。不包括減值損失的影響，營業利潤率在23年第三季度環比下降6個百分點至8.4％。4）應付賬款的增加促進了現金流的改善：在 1-3Q23 中，淨運營現金流同比增長2.15億元人民幣，流入6,553萬元人民幣，現金收入比率同比下降13個百分點至94.9％。與2022年底相比，Payables在3季度增長了4.08億元人民幣。5) 高資產負債比率：該公司的負債與資產比率穩定在75％，淨負債比率爲105％
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Awaiting demand recovery. At present, the company is still making business adjustments, and it focuses more on operating quality and cash flow. Looking ahead, we believe the firm will continue to improve its operating quality amid pressure on demand from housing completions, and expect it to gradually regain high growth after demand stabilizes.
等待需求恢復。目前，該公司仍在進行業務調整，更多地關注運營質量和現金流。展望未來，我們認爲，在住房竣工帶來的需求壓力下，該公司將繼續提高運營質量，並預計在需求穩定後將逐步恢復高增長。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
Given intensifying competition and credit impairment loss, we lower our 2023 and 2024 net profit forecasts 26% and 25% to Rmb140mn and Rmb226mn. The stock is trading at 27x 2023e and 17x 2024e P/E. Given the firm's low valuation, we only cut our target price 13% to Rmb10.5, implying 33x 2023e and 20x 2024e P/E, offering 19% upside.
鑑於競爭加劇和信用減值損失，我們將2023年和2024年的淨利潤預期下調了26％和25％，至1.4億元人民幣和2.26億元人民幣。該股的交易價格爲2023年的27倍，市盈率爲2024年的17倍。鑑於該公司的低估值，我們僅將目標價下調了13％，至10.5元人民幣，這意味着2023年度的33倍和2024年的市盈率爲20倍，上漲空間爲19％。
Risks
風險
Intensifying competition; sharper-than-expected decline in demand from housing completions.
競爭加劇；住房竣工需求的下降幅度超過預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。