ZHONGGU LOGISTICS(603565):3Q23 RESULTS IN LINE; GROSS MARGIN IMPROVES MARKEDLY QOQ
ZHONGGU LOGISTICS(603565):3Q23 RESULTS IN LINE; GROSS MARGIN IMPROVES MARKEDLY QOQ
3Q23 results in line with our expectations
23 年第 3 季度的业绩符合我们的预期
Zhonggu Logistics announced its 3Q23 results: 1-3Q23 revenue fell 14.8% YoY to Rmb9.29bn, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell 45.7% YoY to Rmb1.19bn or Rmb0.57/sh. In 3Q23, revenue was Rmb3.15bn (down 14.2% YoY and up 1.4% QoQ), and attributable net profit was Rmb302mn (down 53.8% YoY and up 8.2% QoQ), in line with our expectations.
中谷物流公布了23年第三季度业绩：1-3Q23 收入同比下降14.8％，至92.9亿元人民币，股东应占净利润同比下降45.7％，至11.9亿元人民币或每股人民币0.57美元。23年第三季度，收入为31.5亿元人民币（同比下降14.2％，环比增长1.4％），应占净利润为人民币3.02亿元（同比下降53.8％，环比增长8.2％），符合我们的预期。
The firm's per-container revenue rose QoQ in 3Q23 despite falling freight rates, and its actual operation improved QoQ. Sector freight
尽管运费下降，但该公司的每集装箱收入在23年第三季度环比增长，其实际运营环比有所改善。区间运费
rates and the firm's freight volume declined QoQ in 3Q23 on weak macro demand. The PDCI freight rate index fell 29.6% YoY and 9.1% QoQ in 3Q23, and container throughput declined 1.9% QoQ to 3.59mn TEU.
由于宏观需求疲软，该公司的运费率和货运量在3季度同比下降。PDCI运费指数在23年第三季度同比下降29.6％，同比下降9.1％，集装箱吞吐量环比下降1.9％，至359万标准箱。
However, the firm's per-container revenue rose 3.4% QoQ, which we think reflects a higher proportion of fee-based container volume and a better business structure. Recurring net profit rose 30.4% QoQ in 3Q23. We think QoQ improvement in actual operations was likely more significant in 3Q23, as the firm's net forex gains rose in 2Q23 due to the appreciation of the US dollar (about Rmb120mn in 1H23 and mainly in 2Q23) while the impact was relatively small in 3Q23.
但是，该公司的每集装箱收入环比增长3.4％，我们认为这反映了收费集装箱量比例的提高和业务结构的改善。23年第三季度的经常性净利润环比增长30.4％。我们认为，由于美元升值（23年上半年约为1.2亿元人民币，主要是第二季度），该公司的净外汇收益在23年第三季度有所上升，而在3季度影响相对较小。
Freight volume grows on the back of large-vessel strategy; per- container cost and gross margin improve thanks to economies of scale and enhanced operating capabilities. In 1-3Q23, the firm's
在大型船舶战略的支持下，货运量增长；由于规模经济和运营能力的增强，每个集装箱的成本和毛利率都有所改善。在 1-3Q23 中，该公司的
weighted average shipping capacity and shipping volume rose 28.5% and 20.3% YoY, as its 89,000t large vessels started operation. In 3Q23, the firm's per-container cost fell 4.2% QoQ, and its gross margin (before taxes and surcharges) rose 6.8ppts from 7.6% in 2Q23 to 14.4%.
随着其89,000吨大型船舶开始运营，加权平均航运能力和出货量同比增长28.5％和20.3％。在23年第三季度，该公司的每集装箱成本环比下降4.2％，其毛利率（税前和附加费）从23年第二季度的7.6％上升至14.4％，增长6.8个百分点。
We attribute the cost improvement to: 1) recognition of discounts on dock charges brought by increased freight volume; 2) improving economies of scale and operating efficiency as large vessels started operation. In 3Q23, the firm's selling and G&A expense ratio fell 0.7ppt QoQ and net profit margin rose 0.6ppt QoQ thanks to effective expense control.
我们将成本提高归因于：1）认识到货运量增加带来的码头费用折扣；2）随着大型船舶开始运营，规模经济和运营效率得到改善。在23年第三季度，由于有效的支出控制，该公司的销售和并购费用比率环比下降0.7个百分点，净利润率环比上升0.6个百分点。
Trends to watch New vessels gradually starting operation; benefiting from the shift from bulk shipping to container shipping in long term. Data from yearbooks for the port industry shows the containerization rate of cargo throughput at ports in China was about 20.5% in 2021, compared with over 50% in developed countries. The proportion was even lower for coal transport at low single digits.
趋势是观察新船逐渐开始运营；从长期来看，从散装运输向集装箱运输的转变中受益。港口业年鉴的数据显示，2021年中国港口货物吞吐量的集装箱化率约为20.5％，而发达国家的这一比例超过50％。煤炭运输的比例甚至更低，仅为个位数。
We believe the market share of container transport may continue to increase, as container shipping is an efficient mode of transportation.
我们认为，集装箱运输的市场份额可能会继续增加，因为集装箱运输是一种有效的运输方式。
Zhonggu leverages its 18 new large vessels to satisfy demand for container shipping of goods previously transported as bulk cargo. We expect containerization to boost its long-term growth.
中谷利用其18艘新的大型船只来满足以前作为散装货物运输的集装箱运输的需求。我们预计集装箱化将促进其长期增长。
Financials and valuation We cut our 2023 and 2024 net profit forecasts 18.9% and 14.1% to
财务和估值我们将2023年和2024年的净利润预期下调了18.9％和14.1％
Rmb1.65bn and Rmb1.87bn. The stock is trading at 11.8x 2023e and
16.5亿元人民币和18.7亿元人民币。该股的交易价格为2023年度的11.8倍，
10.4x 2024e P/E. We maintain OUTPERFORM rating and cut our
2024年期市盈率为10.4倍。我们维持跑赢大盘的评级并下调了我们的评级
target price 8% to Rmb12.5, implying 15.9x 2023e P/E and 14.1x 2024e P/E, offering 35.1% upside.
目标价为8％，至人民币12.5元，这意味着2023年市盈率为15.9倍，市盈率为2024年的14.1倍，上涨空间为35.1％。
Risks
风险
Domestic demand weakens; transport capacity shifting from export market to domestic trade market.
国内需求减弱；运输能力从出口市场转移到国内贸易市场。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。