SINOMINE RESOURCE GROUP(002738):BIKITA TRANSPORTS CONCENTRATES TO CHINA;LITHIUM SALT SUPPLY FROM SELF-OWNED MINES INCREASES
SINOMINE RESOURCE GROUP(002738):BIKITA TRANSPORTS CONCENTRATES TO CHINA;LITHIUM SALT SUPPLY FROM SELF-OWNED MINES INCREASES
3Q23 results in line with our expectations
第三季度業績符合我們的預期
Sinomine Resource Group (Sinomine) announced that in 3Q23, revenue dropped 32.4% YoY to Rmb1.4bn (down 8.2% QoQ), and net profit attributable to shareholders declined 22.1% YoY to Rmb568mn (up 39.6% QoQ), in line with our expectations.
國美資源集團(Sinomine)宣佈，23季度營收同比下降32.4%至人民幣14億元(季度環比下降8.2%)，股東應佔淨利潤同比下降22.1%至人民幣5.68億元(季度增長39.6%)，符合我們的預期。
Prices of lithium salt decline; production capacity of self-owned
鋰鹽價格回落；自有產能
mines to gradually increase. Prices of domestic lithium salt declined in 3Q23 after rebounding in 2Q23. The average lithium salt price stayed flat QoQ in 3Q23, but the average price of this product fell sharply YoY in 3Q23. Data from Asian Metal shows that domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices averaged Rmb239,100/t in 3Q23 (down 3% QoQ, down 51% YoY). We think sales volume of self-owned mines continued to increase in 3Q23, given capacity expansion at its Bikita Minerals lithium mine. The firm's cesium and rubidium salt business steadily grew, boosting earnings in 3Q23.
礦山要逐步增加。國內鋰鹽價格在23年第2季度反彈後，在23年第3季度出現下降。鋰鹽的平均價格在2003年第三季度持平，但該產品的平均價格在2003年第三季度同比大幅下降。亞洲金屬網的數據顯示，國內電池級碳酸鋰價格在23季度平均為239,100元/噸(季度環比下降3%，同比下降51%)。我們認為，鑑於Bikita Minerals鋰礦的產能擴張，自有礦的銷售量在23季度繼續增長。該公司的銫和Rb鹽業務穩步增長，提振了23季度的收益。
Trends to watch Shipping spodumene concentrates from the Bikita mine to China; increasing supply from self-owned mines in 2H23. The 2mnt/yr petalite
關注從Bikita礦向中國發運鋰輝石精礦的趨勢；23財年下半年自有礦山的供應增加。2MNT/年的花斑岩
project and the 2mnt/yr spodumene project at the Bikita mine started production in July 2023, increasing the planned production capacity by 0.3mnt/yr for petalite and spodumene concentrates. We note that the firm has shipped 10,000t spodumene concentrate powder produced at the Bikita mine to China in September 2023, so as to provide raw materials for the 35,000t/yr lithium chemical production line1. We think lithium chemical supply from the firm's self-owned mines will increase, given additional production capacity of the Bikita mine in Zimbabwe and that of lithium salt in China. Increased lithium chemical supply will boost sales volume of lithium salt, and help the firm increase the self-sufficiency rate of this product, in our view.
該專案和Bikita礦的2MNT/年鋰輝石專案於2023年7月投產，計劃增加0.3MNT/年的輝石和鋰輝石精礦產能。我們注意到，該公司已於2023年9月向中國發運了比基塔礦生產的10,000噸鋰輝石精礦粉末，為年產35,000噸鋰化工生產線提供原材料1。我們認為，鑑於津巴布韋比基塔礦和中國鋰鹽產能的增加，該公司自有礦山的鋰化學品供應將會增加。在我們看來，鋰化學品供應的增加將提振鋰鹽的銷售量，並有助於公司提高該產品的自給率。
Continuing to increase production capacity of lithium mines; raw materials required by Sinomine's lithium chemical manufacturing business to be all produced by itself. The quarterly report shows that
繼續提高鋰礦產能；中國石油化工股份有限公司鋰化工製造業務所需的原材料全部由自己生產。季度報告顯示，
Jiangxi Dongpeng New Material (a subsidiary) has a lithium salt production capacity of 25,000t/yr. Jiangxi Chunpeng Lithium Industry (a subsidiary) is building a new lithium salt production base with a capacity of 35,000t/yr. It expects the project to reach designed capacity in 4Q23. The total planned lithium salt capacity of the two subsidiaries is 60,000t/yr.
江西東鵬新材料(子公司)鋰鹽生產能力為2.5萬噸/年。江西春鵬鋰業(子公司)正在建設新的年產3.5萬噸鋰鹽生產基地。該公司預計該專案將在23年第四季度達到設計產能。兩家子公司的鋰鹽總規劃產能為6萬噸/年。
After the Bikita capacity expansion project reaches designed capacity, Sinomine's resource production capacity may be able to support its lithium smelting, in our view. In other words, the firm could produce all the raw materials required by its lithium chemicals manufacturing business.
在我們看來，在Bikita產能擴建專案達到設計產能後，Sinomine的資源產能可能能夠支持其鋰冶煉。換句話說，該公司可以生產其鋰化學品製造業務所需的所有原材料。
According to the annoucement, the board of directors has approved the construction of a mineral engineering project with a capacity of 1mnt/yr in the Tanco mine over 2023-2024. Supply from its self-owned mines will increase after the new mine starts production, in our view. In addition, the firm has signed an agreement with Tyranna Resources to fund the development of the Namibe lithium mine and obtain the selling right.
根據公告，董事會已批准在2023-2024年期間在Tanco礦建設一個產能為100萬噸/年的礦物工程專案。在我們看來，在新礦投產後，其自有礦山的供應將會增加。此外，該公司還與Tyranna Resources簽署了一項協定，為納米貝鋰礦的開發提供資金，並獲得銷售權。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We cut our net profit forecasts by 13% to Rmb3.29bn for 2023 and 42% to Rmb2.19bn for 2024, to reflect lower lithium salt prices. The stock is trading at 7.8x 2023e and 11.8x 2024e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating, but cut our target price 15% to Rmb46.62 to reflect lower lithium salt prices. Our TP implies 10.1x 2023e and 15.2x 2024e P/E, offering 29% upside.
我們將2023年的淨利潤預期下調13%至32.9億元人民幣，將2024年的淨利潤預期下調42%至21.9億元人民幣，以反映鋰鹽價格的下跌。該股目前的交易價格為7.8倍2023E和11.8倍2024E本益比。我們維持表現優於大盤的評級，但將目標價下調15%，至46.62元人民幣，以反映鋰鹽價格的下跌。我們的TP意味著10.1x 2023E和15.2x 2024E本益比，提供29%的上行空間。
Risks
風險
Sharper-than-expected declines in lithium prices; delays in transporting concentrates to ports; overseas resource policy risks.
鋰價格降幅超過預期；向港口運輸精礦的延誤；海外資源政策風險。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。