CHINA EVERBRIGHT BANK(6818.HK):3Q23 EARNINGS GROWTH LARGELY IN LINE WITH OUR EXPECTATION
CHINA EVERBRIGHT BANK(6818.HK):3Q23 EARNINGS GROWTH LARGELY IN LINE WITH OUR EXPECTATION
China Everbright Bank's (CEB) attributable net profit increased 2.5% YoY in 3Q23 and 3.0% YoY in 9M23, largely in line with our expectation, against 3.3% YoY growth in 1H23. Its net interest income growth remained sluggish in 9M23, which was mainly due to mixed effects of weak growth in interest-earning assets and decrease in NIM. Its net fee and commission income dropped 11.4% YoY in 9M23, against negative growth of 9.4% YoY in 1H23. As of end-September 2023, its loans/deposits increased 5.3%/4.3% from end-2022. CEB's asset quality decreased as NPL ratio increased in 9M23. Looking ahead, we expect CEB to report small growth in net profit in 4Q23 as the bank will continue to provide financial support to the real economy. Valuation remains cheap. Maintain BUY rating.
中国光大银行（CEB）的应占净利润在23年第三季度同比增长2.5％，在9M23年同比增长3.0％，基本符合我们的预期，而23年上半年同比增长3.3％。在9M23，其净利息收入增长仍然缓慢，这主要是由于利息资产增长疲软和NIM下降的喜忧参半的影响。其净费用和佣金收入在9M23年同比下降11.4％，而23年上半年同比负增长9.4％。截至2023年9月底，其贷款/存款比2022年底增加了5.3％/4.3％。随着不良贷款比率在9M23年上升，CEB的资产质量下降了。展望未来，我们预计CEB将在23年第四季度报告净利润略有增长，因为该行将继续为实体经济提供财务支持。估值仍然便宜。维持买入评级。
Key Factors for Rating
评级的关键因素
Asset quality decreased in 9M23. Its NPL ratio reached 1.35% at end- September 2023, higher than 1.3% at end-June 2023 and 1.25% at end- December 2022. Meanwhile, its allowance to NPLs reached 175.65% at end- September 2023, against 188.6% at end-June 2023 and 187.9% at end- December 2022. We expect its NPL ratio to increase to 1.36% in 4Q23.
9M23 的资产质量有所下降。其不良贷款比率在2023年9月底达到1.35％，高于2023年6月底的1.3％和2022年12月底的1.25％。同时，其不良贷款补贴在2023年9月底达到175.65％，而2023年6月底为188.6％，2022年12月底为187.9％。我们预计其不良贷款比率将在23年第四季度提高到1.36％。
Net interest income remained sluggish in 9M23. Its net interest income decreased 4.3% YoY in 9M23, which might be mainly due to the decrease in net interest margin (NIM) and is in line with overall banking sector trend. We expect its NIM to drop 4bps in 3Q23 after declining 19 bps in 1H23. We expect its NIM to drop another 1bps in 2H23.
在9M23，净利息收入仍然低迷。其净利息收入在9M23年同比下降4.3％，这可能主要是由于净利率（NIM）的下降，符合银行业的整体趋势。我们预计，其NIM在23年上半年下降19个基点之后，将在23第三季度下降4个基点。我们预计其净资产净值将在下半年再下降1个基点。
Net fee and commission income decreased in 9M23. Its net fee and commission income decreased 11.4% YoY in 9M23 amid weak investment sentiments. As a result, the proportion of net fee and commission income in total operating income may reach 17.0% in 9M23, against 18.4% in 9M22.
2023年9M的净费用和佣金收入有所下降。由于投资情绪疲软，其净费用和佣金收入在9M23年同比下降11.4％。因此，在9M23，净费用和佣金收入占总营业收入的比例可能达到17.0％，而2022年9M2的比例可能达到18.4％。
Key Risks to Rating
评级的主要风险
The bank might be under strong pressure to provide more support to the real economy if China's economy slows down significantly.
如果中国经济大幅放缓，该银行可能会面临向实体经济提供更多支持的巨大压力。
Valuation
估价
Its H shares are now trading at 0.27x 2023E P/B, which remains quite cheap.
其H股目前的市盈率为2023年度的0.27倍，仍然相当便宜。
We expect its ROAE to reach 9.5% in 2023, lower than sector's average level.
我们预计其投资回报率将在2023年达到9.5％，低于该行业的平均水平。
Its 2023E dividend yield will be around 9.4%. We maintain our target price of HK$3.46, based on about 0.4x 2023E P/B. Maintain BUY rating.
其2023年度的股息收益率将约为9.4％。根据2023年美国东部市盈率的0.4倍左右，我们将目标价维持在3.46港元。维持买入评级。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。