Event: the company releases its third quarterly report for 2023
In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's revenue and net profit increased by 11% and 423%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The company's total revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 was 2.58 billion yuan, an increase of 11% over the same period last year, and the net profit was 170 million yuan, up 423% from the same period last year. In a single quarter, 2023Q3 achieved a revenue of 790 million yuan, an increase of 2% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 60 million yuan, an increase of 44.3% over the same period last year.
The performance improved significantly in 2023: the company's profit low has passed, and the product category continues to expand. 1) with the recovery of downstream demand, the company's performance improved significantly in 2023. 22Q4-23Q3's revenue grew by-4%, 12%, 19% and 2% respectively, and net profit from home increased by-89%, 111%, 6834% and 443% respectively, with an obvious improvement trend.
2) in the first three quarters of 2023, the company's gross profit margin was 24.8%, which was higher than the same period last year. We judge that the competition in the industry is slowing down, and the price war is expected to gradually pass; the net profit rate is 6.9%, which is higher than the same period last year. 5.1pct.
In the short term, the company benefits from downstream demand recovery, profit repair, and long-term expansion of high-power and high-end fields. 1) according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing PMI in September was 50.2%, up 0.5pct from the previous month, rising for four consecutive months. Under the economic recovery, the equipment manufacturing industry continues to expand, and the laser industry is expected to continue to benefit.
2) according to the development report of China's laser industry, the market for medium-and low-power fiber lasers below 6kw in 2021 has been basically occupied by domestic manufacturers, with serious competition at low prices, while the localization rate of high-power products is only about 50%.
3) as an enterprise under SASAC, the company continues to increase R & D, accounting for 9.7% of R & D investment in 2022, which is higher than 8% of IPG and Chuangxin. In 2022, the company's sales of high-power products increased by 128% compared with the same period last year, of which 10,000-watt laser sales increased by 35%. The high-power and high-end manufacturing market is expected to become a new driving force for the company's development in the future.
4) the competition pattern of the domestic fiber laser market is tripod. In 2021, the market share of IPG, Ruike and Chuangxin will reach 74%. Under the background of price war, small and medium-sized manufacturers continue to withdraw, and the industry concentration is expected to further increase.
Ruike Laser: the compound growth rate of net profit in the next 3 years is estimated to be 144%. The company's net profit in 2023-2025 is expected to be 2.8,4.2 and 590 million yuan, an increase of 597%, 49% and 40% respectively over the same period last year. CAGR=144%, for 22-25 years is 49, 33 and 23 times. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
1) the price war in the industry continues; 2) the expansion of the high-power and high-end market is not as expected.