Brief comment on performance
On October 31, 2023, the company disclosed that its revenue in the first three quarters was 2.891 billion yuan, an increase of 19.81% over the same period last year, the net profit of homing was 994 million yuan, down 34.54% from the same period last year, and the operating income of the company in the third quarter was 869 million yuan, an increase of 33.83% over the same period last year. The net profit is 278 million yuan, down 34.20% from the same period last year.
Both volume and price fell, leading to a decline in performance compared with the previous month. The company achieved potash production of about 414900 tons and sales of about 423600 tons in the third quarter, down 15.5% from the previous quarter. On the one hand, the company's second set of production capacity of 1 million tons was mainly put into production in the fourth quarter, and the overload operation of the existing capacity of 1 million tons needs to be adjusted. On the other hand, second-quarter sales contain a small amount of inventory of unrecognized income in the first quarter, with a relatively high base, so the company's sales volume is more than the previous quarter. At the same time, potash prices declined mainly in the first half of the third quarter. Based on the domestic price of 60% potassium in Qinghai, the average price of potash in the third quarter was about 348 yuan / ton lower than that in the second quarter. The company was mainly in the domestic and Southeast Asian markets, and the price was adjusted somewhat. The overall performance decreased slightly from the previous quarter.
The cost optimization is reflected, and the anti-risk ability is improved. Judging from the profit situation of the single quarter, the overall gross profit margin of the company in the third quarter was 54.67%. Although it was lower than that in the second quarter, it was relatively greatly affected by industry prices. according to the cost per ton in the third quarter, it was lower than that in the second quarter. the company's cost control ability is reflected, and the company's anti-risk ability will be further improved in the future, taking into account factors such as equipment upgrading, scale magnification, and increased automation. Judging from the current price performance, potash prices at home and abroad have basically stabilized, and the overall room for change is expected to be relatively small.
The second 1 million tons of production capacity in the fourth quarter, and the fourth and fifth million tons of production capacity were gradually put on the agenda. The second 1 million tons of production capacity of the company in the fourth quarter is put into production, and the overload operation of the capacity of two million tons is expected to achieve the company's target of equity incentive production and marketing range, when the output in the fourth quarter increases significantly compared with the previous quarter, and the price at this stage is slightly higher than the average price in the third quarter. The company is expected to achieve a significant improvement in performance in the fourth quarter. At present, the company's third one million ton production capacity is already under construction and is expected to be put into production next year, and the fourth and fifth one million ton production capacity will be gradually put on the agenda, superimposed cost optimization to consolidate the competitive foundation, and the company has a good growth space in the long run.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
It is predicted that the return net profit of the company from 2023 to 2025 is 15.94,23.13 and 2.98 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS is 1.72,2.49,3.21 yuan per share respectively. The current price of the company's stock corresponds to the PE valuation of 17,11,9 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
Projects under construction fall short of expectations, potash product prices fall sharply, and there is a risk of overseas political changes.