Event: On October 24,2023, the company released the third quarterly report of 2023. During the reporting period, the company realized revenue of 878 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of-23.46%, net profit of 312 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of-37.21%, net profit of 61 million yuan deducted from non-parent, with a year-on-year growth of-78.24%; In the third quarter, the revenue was 271 million yuan,-9.69%/-11.15% year-on-year/month-on-month, and the net profit was 29 million yuan,-77.61%/-82.42% year-on-year/month-on-month.
Photovoltaic thermal field rebound dawn gradually appears, lithium thermal field relay growth. Since the second half of last year, the photovoltaic thermal field has entered the rapid downward channel. By the end of the third quarter of this year, the overall price has fallen below 300,000 yuan/ton. Considering that the thermal field is sold in the form of long-term association or bidding, the settlement price has futures attribute, and the sharp drop of price begins to be gradually reflected to the statement end. The gross profit rate of the company in the third quarter is 26.77%, with a year-on-year/month-on-month decrease of 16.91/10.27 pct. The profit level of the product is the lowest point in history since listing. The current price has been difficult to support the company's high proportion of R & D investment, and may even touch the production cost line of second-tier and third-tier manufacturers. The leader and the industry as a whole have strong price increase demands. In combination with the current bidding and long-term cooperation market quotation negotiation changes, we expect that the price of photovoltaic thermal field is expected to rebound by the end of this year. The difficult downward moment of the industry may pass, and the profit of the company's products is expected to stabilize gradually in a reasonable level interval.
Under the industry trend, the company actively explores the application of hot field products in other fields. At present, the hot field of lithium battery cathode is expected to achieve industrial breakthrough from 0 to 1. Compared with traditional graphite, carbon-carbon thermal field has obvious advantages in service life, unit output and unit weight, especially driven by more mature technology and gradually decreasing cost, we believe that carbon-carbon substitution for graphite is also expected to occur in the field of lithium battery cathode, and due to certain convergence between photovoltaic thermal field and lithium thermal field in production equipment and technology, the rise of demand for lithium thermal field will also tighten the supply of photovoltaic thermal field, and the overall boom of the industry is expected to rise. As a leader in the industry, the company has successfully developed lithium electric thermal field products such as saggers, crucibles, box plates and columns. The annual output of 100,000 tons of carbon powder preparation integrated demonstration line for lithium battery anode materials Phase I project has entered the production capacity climbing stage, which is expected to be the first to hold positions and enjoy dividends.
Downstream models were first released, carbon ceramic brake discs accelerated landing. On October 9, Haoplatinum, a high-end brand owned by GAC Ai 'an, released Haoplatinum SSR, an electric super sports car equipped with domestic carbon ceramic brake disc, becoming the first mass production project of carbon ceramic brake disc of Jinbo shares. The boarding of high-end models indicates that the domestic carbon ceramic brake disc has been qualified for import replacement, and under the continuous cost reduction and efficiency improvement of domestic manufacturers, the carbon ceramic brake disc is expected to be gradually lowered to more models, and it is expected to become the first year of the domestic carbon ceramic brake disc industry next year. The company has a complete carbon ceramic brake disc production line core technology and supporting capacity, and has developed carbon with more than 10 new energy vehicle enterprises. The R & D and trial production of ceramic brake discs, based on the technical and market advantages in their respective materials and application fields, jointly promoted the R & D of disc body connectors (joints) and fasteners products to meet the needs of carbon/ceramic brake discs, reached a deep strategic partnership, integrated supply chain, actively responded to downstream customer needs, and accelerated product scale.
Investment advice: Based on the price reduction impact of the main business photovoltaic thermal field, the profit forecast is lowered. It is estimated that the company's operating income from 2023 to 2025 will be 1.633 billion yuan, 3.75 billion yuan and 5.027 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the mother will be 529 million yuan, 832 million yuan and 1.129 billion yuan respectively,-4.0%,+57.4% and +35.6% year-on-year, corresponding to EPS of 3.8, 5.98 and 8.11 respectively. The PE multiples corresponding to the current stock price are 22X, 14X and 10X respectively, maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Risk tips: capacity expansion is not as expected; industry competition is intensified; downstream demand is not as expected; raw material price fluctuation risk and so on.