Event: the company released its Triple report for 2023. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 5.739 billion yuan, year-on-year-11.73%, net profit of 275 million yuan, year-on-year-38.02%, non-return net profit of 244 million yuan, year-on-year-43.58%. Among them, 2023Q3 achieved a revenue of 1.365 billion yuan, compared with the same month-43.99% Mather, 27.37%; realized a net profit of 23 million yuan, and 66.06%, deducted a non-net profit of 8 million yuan,-95.51%, 87.51%, 87.51%, 87.51%, and-3.07/+0.37pct, respectively. The net profit rate of sales is 0.30%, which is the same as that of 8.26/-3.34pct.
Downstream storage shipments declined month-on-month, and industrial and commercial energy storage gradually increased. We estimate that the company's cumulative shipments of energy storage batteries in the first three quarters of 23 years are about 4.5GWh, of which Q3 shipments are about 1GWh, down 33% from a month earlier, mainly due to household storage and portable energy storage customers. in addition, the actual construction progress of the large storage project is less than expected, affecting the company's overall shipments. In terms of sub-structure, the proportion of household storage / large storage / portable energy storage / communication energy storage shipments in the first three quarters of 2023 was 45%, 30%, 20%, 5%, respectively, of which the industrial and commercial energy storage shipments belonging to large storage increased rapidly. Industrial and commercial energy storage has developed rapidly due to the good economy of peak-valley price difference arbitrage. At present, the company is actively expanding industrial and commercial energy storage customers, and we expect the company to ship 400MW in 23 years and 4GWh in 24 years. Considering that the downstream de-storage pressure of 23Q4 is still there, we estimate that the annual energy storage shipment of the company is about 5.8G who is expected to reach more than 10GWh in 24 years.
Asset impairment is a drag on performance, and product gross profit margin remains at a good level. The company's 23Q3 gross profit margin reached 17.73%, slightly higher than the previous month, mainly due to the company's efficient management and operation, good product structure, household storage and portable energy storage, and better industrial and commercial energy storage profits. The company's 23Q3 provides for an impairment loss of 56 million yuan, which is a drag on overall performance. As the price of upstream raw materials tends to stabilize, the company's net interest rate is expected to be repaired gradually. We expect the company's 23Q4 and 24-year gross margin to remain at a good level above 18%.
Investment suggestion: considering the impact of downstream storage of energy storage, we expect the company to achieve a net profit of RMB 355,000,000 in 2023-2025, compared with-43.5%, 59.4% and 33.1% in the same period last year, corresponding to EPS0.71/1.12/1.50 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: energy storage demand is lower than expected; European market demand is lower than expected; industry competition is intensified.