CHINA EXPRESS AIRLINES(002928):TURNING PROFITABLE IN 3Q23; RISING OIL PRICES AND FALLING SUBSIDIES COULD WEIGH ON 4Q23
CHINA EXPRESS AIRLINES(002928):TURNING PROFITABLE IN 3Q23; RISING OIL PRICES AND FALLING SUBSIDIES COULD WEIGH ON 4Q23
3Q23 results in line with market expectations
第三季度業績符合市場預期
China Express Airlines announced its 3Q23 results. Revenue rose 90% YoY to Rmb3.85bn in 1-3Q23. Net profit attributable to shareholders was - Rmb697mn (vs. -Rmb1.51bn a year earlier), in line with market expectations.
中國快航公佈了3Q23財報。2013年第一季度至第三季度營收同比增長90%，至38.5億元人民幣。股東應佔淨利潤為-6.97億元人民幣(上年同期為-15.1億元人民幣)，符合市場預期。
In 3Q23, revenue jumped 111% YoY and 40% QoQ to Rmb1.64bn. Net profit attributable to shareholders was Rmb55mn (vs. -Rmb558mn in 3Q22 and -Rmb476mn in 2Q23). We estimate attributable net profit excluding the impact of forex at Rmb37mn (vs. -Rmb406mn in 3Q22 and - Rmb306mn in 2Q23).
2013年第三季度，營收同比增長111%，季度增長40%，達到16.4億元人民幣。股東應佔淨利潤為人民幣5500萬元(22年第三季度為-5.58億元人民幣，23年第二季度為-4.76億元人民幣)。我們估計扣除外匯影響的應佔淨利潤為人民幣3700萬元(22年第三季度為-4.06億元人民幣，23年第二季度為-3.06億元人民幣)。
Operating data recovered as the market entered peak season in 3Q23; revenue per RPK remained flat compared with the same period of 2019. In 3Q23, A available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) recovered to 109% and 106% of the levels in the same period of 2019, up 7ppt and 8ppt QoQ. Passenger load factor (PLF) was 80.1%, down 3ppt from the same period of 2019. In 3Q23, the firm's revenue per RPK (including flight sales to local governments and airports) was Rmb0.63, largely flat from 3Q19, and we project airfares for individual customers may have increased to some extent.
隨著市場在23年第三季度進入旺季，運營數據有所恢復；與2019年同期相比，每RPK收入持平。在23年第三季度，A可用座位公里(ASK)和收入乘客公里(RPK)恢復到2019年同期水準的109%和106%，分別上升了7ppt和8ppt季度。旅客負荷率(PLF)為80.1%，比2019年同期下降3ppt。2013年第三季度，該公司每RPK收入(包括對地方政府和機場的機票銷售)為0.63元人民幣，與19年第三季度基本持平，我們預計個人客戶的機票價格可能有所上漲。
Operating cost per ASK fell sharply. The firm's operating cost per ASK fell 32% YoY and 4% QoQ to Rmb0.45 in 3Q23. Average domestic ex- factory price of aviation kerosene fell 25% YoY but rose 7% QoQ in 3Q23. We think unit non-fuel cost may decline YoY and QoQ as the firm's capacity utilization rate increases.
每份訂單的運營成本大幅下降。2013年第三季度，該公司的每股運營成本同比下降32%，第二季度下降4%，至人民幣0.45元。國內航空煤油平均出廠價格同比下降25%，但第三季度環比上漲7%。我們認為，隨著公司產能利用率的提高，單位非燃料成本可能會同比和季度下降。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
We expect China Express Airlines to suffer a loss (excluding the impact of forex) in 4Q23. Our main assumptions include: 1) The firm's ASK will achieve high-single-digit growth compared with 2019; 2) PLF will be slightly lower than the level in the same period of 2019, and yield of individual customers will increase slightly compared with the same period in 2019; 3) according to the view of the CICC commodity team1, we assume Brent oil price will be US$90/bbl in 4Q23, and unit non-fuel cost will increase slightly from 3Q23; 4) According to the subsidizing plan for the civil aviation development fund2 released by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), we assume the firm recognizes Rmb145mn in subsidies for feeder carriers this year (vs. Rmb175mn last year).
我們預計中國快遞航空在23年第四季度將出現虧損(不包括外匯影響)。我們的主要假設包括：1)與2019年相比，公司的要價將實現個位數的高增長；2)PLF將略低於2019年同期的水準，個人客戶收益率將比2019年同期略有上升；3)根據中金大宗商品團隊1的觀點，我們假設23年第四季度布倫特油價將為90美元/桶，單位非燃料成本將從3Q23略有上升；4)根據民航總局中國發布的民航發展基金補貼計劃2，我們假設該公司今年確認支線航空公司補貼1.45億元人民幣(去年為1.75億元人民幣)。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We lower our 2023 and 2024 net profit forecasts to -Rmb831mn and +Rmb631mn (from -Rmb329mn and +Rmb759mn), mainly because we raised our assumption for Brent oil price, and lowered assumptions for CAAC subsidies for feeder carriers and 2024 capacity growth. We maintain OUTPERFORM rating. The stock is trading at 13.3x 2024e P/E. We cut our target price 16% to Rmb8.7, offering 33% upside and implying 18x 2024e P/E. We suggest watching the firm's capacity recovery and aircraft utilization.
我們將2023年和2024年的淨利潤預期分別下調至-8.31億元人民幣和+6.31億元人民幣(從-3.29億元人民幣和+7.59億元人民幣)，主要是因為我們上調了對布倫特油價的預期，並下調了對中國民航支線航空公司補貼和2024年運力增長的預期。我們維持強於大盤的評級。該股目前的本益比為13.3倍，2024E/E。我們將目標價下調16%，至8.7元人民幣，上漲33%，意味著18倍2024E/E。我們建議關注該公司的產能恢復和飛機利用率。
Risks
風險
Disappointing capacity recovery; visible RMB depreciation against USD; sharp rise in oil prices.
令人失望的產能復甦；人民幣兌美元明顯貶值；油價大幅上漲。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。