ASIA AROMA(301220):NATURAL FLAVOR LEADER ON THE RISE BACKED BY OVERSEAS EXPANSION AND SYNTHETIC BIOTECH
ASIA AROMA(301220):NATURAL FLAVOR LEADER ON THE RISE BACKED BY OVERSEAS EXPANSION AND SYNTHETIC BIOTECH
Asia Aroma is a leading domestic natural flavor supplier and capitalizes on the rapid development of the industry by continuously expanding its production capacity and upgrading its product mix. Leveraging its strengths in production and R&D, as well as strong brand barriers, the Company has been consistently consolidating its market-leading position while creating further growth upside. Additionally, it has been proactively building a presence in synthetic biotechnologies by utilizing enzymes and fermentation processes to enhance existing product lines, thereby constantly optimizing its profitability. We forecast its 2023E/24E/25E attributable net profit (ANP) to be Rmb120mn/177mn/248mn. Based on the PE and EV/EBITDA valuation methods, we assign a target price of Rmb45 (implying 20x 2024E PE) and initiate coverage with a "BUY" rating.
亞洲芳香是國內領先的天然香料供應商，通過不斷擴大產能和升級產品結構，利用行業的快速發展。憑藉其在生產和研發方面的優勢以及強大的品牌壁壘，該公司一直在不斷鞏固其市場領先地位，同時創造進一步增長的上行空間。此外，它還通過利用酵素和發酵工藝來增強現有的產品線，從而不斷優化其盈利能力，從而積極地在合成生物技術領域建立業務。我們預測其2023E/24E/25E歸屬淨利潤(ANP)為人民幣1.2億元/1.77億元/2.48億元。基於本益比和EV/EBITDA估值方法，我們將目標價定為人民幣45元(意味著2024E本益比)，並以“買入”評級開始承保。
Domestic natural flavor leader posted an ANP CAGR of c.27% over 2016-22.
國內天然香料領頭羊公佈了2016-22年度約27%的ANP復合年增長率。
Asia Aroma is mainly engaged in natural flavors, synthetic flavors and coolants, with an annual flavor output at about 3ktpa. It has been focusing on the industry for more than twenty years and has developed into a domestic leading natural flavor supplier with international significance. As a local natural flavor leader, the Company demonstrates strong growth attributes and has posted sustained rapid earnings growth.
亞洲香料主要經營天然香料、合成香料和冷卻劑，年產香料約3ktpa。二十多年來，專注於該行業，已發展成為國內領先的具有國際意義的天然香料供應商。作為當地天然香料的領先者，該公司表現出強勁的增長屬性，並實現了持續快速的收益增長。
The Flavor and fragrance markets grow steadily to offset cyclical fluctuations, presenting broad prospects for natural flavors.
香精和香水市場穩步增長，以抵消週期性波動，展示了天然香料的廣闊前景。
The consumption of flavors and fragrances is concentrated in the non-discretionary category. According to the data from Grand View Research, a market research and consulting company, food & beverages and household and personal care products accounted for 88% in the downstream market, with the global market size of flavors and fragrances posting a CAGR of c.4% over 2016-2022. In recent years, with the gradual growing of the concepts regarding food safety, green and pollution-free, along with the help of policy promotion, the natural flavor market sees broad growth prospects. As the domestic natural flavor leader, Asia Aroma stands well to fully benefit.
香料和香水的消費集中在非可自由支配的類別。根據市場研究和諮詢公司Grand View Research的數據，食品飲料和家庭及個人護理產品佔下遊市場的88%，2016-2022年全球香料和香水市場規模的年復合增長率為約4%。近年來，隨著食品安全、綠色、無汙染理念的逐步增強，加上政策的推動，天然香精市場看到了廣闊的增長前景。作為國內天然香料的領先者，亞洲香氣將充分受益。
The Thailand project under construction may double the Company's capacity, while synthetic biotech may reduce costs and enhance profits.
正在建設的泰國專案可能會使公司的產能翻一番，而合成生物技術可能會降低成本，提高利潤。
Driven by capacity expansion and technological innovation, Asia Aroma stands well to post growth in both shipments and profits. In terms of capacity expansion, the Company continues to ramp up its flavor production capability through acquisitions, self-construction, and other strategic approaches. By the end of 2021, the actual scale of self-production capacity has tripled compared to 2018. Moreover, the Company's flavor production capability is likely to double if its planned Thailand investment project, as a part of its overseas expansion, reaches full production. In terms of technological innovation, a new era of synthetic biotechnologies beckons in terms of natural flavor preparation.
在產能擴張和技術創新的推動下，亞洲芳香的出貨量和利潤都將實現增長。在產能擴張方面，公司通過收購、自建等戰略途徑，不斷提升香精生產能力。到2021年底，自產能實際規模比2018年翻了兩番。此外，如果作為其海外擴張的一部分，該公司計劃在泰國的投資專案全面投產，該公司的香精生產能力可能會翻一番。在技術創新方面，天然香料製備方面，合成生物技術的新時代正在召喚。
Following the successful industrialization of relevant technologies, we expect the Company to effectively optimize its product gross profit margin (GPM) while leveraging its cost advantages to further expand market share.
隨著相關技術的成功產業化，我們預計公司將有效地優化其產品毛利率(GPM)，同時利用其成本優勢進一步擴大市場份額。
Potential risks: Large fluctuations in raw material prices; environmental issues and workplace safety incidents; international trade frictions; significant fluctuations in exchange rates; slower-than-expected progress of the Thailand project under construction; the release of domestic production capacity not up to expectations; risks associated with new technologies and product development; intensified industry competition; changes in product classification standards.
潛在風險：原材料價格大幅波動；環境問題和工作場所安全事件；國際貿易莫耳擦；匯率大幅波動；泰國在建專案進展慢於預期；國內產能釋放沒有達到預期；新技術和產品開發相關風險；行業競爭加劇；產品分類標準變化。
Investment recommendation: We forecast Asia Aroma's 2023E-25E ANP to be Rmb120mn/177mn/248mn (implying a 2023-25 CAGR of c.44%), equivalent to EPS forecasts of Rmb1.48/2.19/3.06 respectively. Meanwhile, the 2023E-25E CAGR for the ANP of its comparable companies is averaged at c.26% based on Wind consensus estimates. Considering the Company's leading position in natural flavors, coupled with the likely sustained high earnings growth backed by the completion of its Thailand project and the implementation of synthetic biotechnologies, we combine both PE and EV/EBITDA valuation methods and give certain valuation premiums to the Company. We assign 20x 2024E PE (51x 2024E EB/EBITDA) to derive a target price of Rmb45, corresponding to a target market cap of Rmb3.6bn, and initiate coverage with a "BUY" rating.
投資建議：我們預測亞洲Aroma 2023E-25E的淨資產收益率為人民幣1.2億元/1.77億元/2.48億元(意味著2023-25年的復合年增長率為約44%)，相當於每股收益預測分別為1.48元/2.19/3.06元。與此同時，根據Wind Consensus估計，其可比公司的淨資產淨值2023E-25E的CAGR平均為C.26%。考慮到公司在天然香料領域的領先地位，再加上泰國專案的完成和合成生物技術的實施可能帶來持續的高收益增長，我們結合了PE和EV/EBITDA估值方法，並給予公司一定的估值溢價。我們指定20x 2024E本益比(51x 2024E EB/EBITDA)得出45元人民幣的目標價，對應36億元人民幣的目標市值，並以“買入”評級啟動覆蓋。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。