Recently, the listing of China Literature of Tencent has attracted a lot of attention, and Ali enterprises naturally do not want to be lonely. Ant Financial Services Group holds 12.8% of the shares.Qudian Inc(code: QD), will be officially launched in the U. S. stock market tonight.
Qudian Inc will also be the successor.Pleasant loan(YRD),Trust and be rich(XRF), the third Chinese Internet finance company to be listed on US stocks.
So, how will Qudian Inc perform?
Pleasant loans, trustworthy and rich in front of the "charge", how will Qudian Inc interpret it?
First, let's take a look at the recent performance of pleasant loans, trustworthiness and wealth of our peers.
Pleasant loan went public at the end of 2015 and has risen by a staggering 14.5 times so far:
Source: Bloomberg
And believing and being rich easily doubled in less than a month:
Source: Bloomberg
It can be seen that Chinese Internet financial companies listed on US stocksHas been warmly sought after by investors.。
Is it possible for Qudian Inc to copy the strong trend of the two forerunners? We have a simple discussion from the perspective of business model, financial situation and valuation.
Escape from the controversial "campus loan", the performance soared
Qudian Inc launched the operation in 2014, the early name is interest stages, mainly engaged in the "campus loan" business.
As we all know, in the past two years, "campus loan" was repeatedly pushed to the forefront of public opinion. Qudian Inc had to announce in September 2016 that he would gradually withdraw from campus credit and gradually expand to white-collar, blue-collar and other consumer groups.
After the transformation, there has been a substantial improvement in performance.
In the first half of 2017, Qudian Inc's total revenue was 1.833 billion yuan ($270 million), up 393% from the same period last year, while net profit was 973 million yuan ($143 million), up 697% from the same period last year.
In 2016, Qudian Inc's annual revenue was only 1.44 billion yuan (up 509% from a year earlier) and net profit was 576 million yuan (up 347% from a year earlier), compared with a huge loss of 233 million yuan in 2015. Qudian Inc's performance is growing rapidly:
The data changes in the past three years show that Qudian Inc's revenue has grown rapidly and its net profit has quickly changed from loss to profit.
In addition, according to its prospectus, as of the second quarter of 2017, Qudian Inc had 47.9 million registered users, more than 28.9 million monthly active users (MAU) and more than 20 million transactions. The customer turnaround rate is as high as 82.7%, making it the largest online microcredit company in China.
Photo Source: prospectus
Judging from Qudian Inc's performance and the scale of the number of users, he is a large-scale company in the field of Internet lending finance.
Do all lenders make so much money?
Qudian Inc's net profit has increased significantly, in the field of Internet lending and finance.It's not an exception.。
Yiren, known as the "first overseas listed share of China Internet Finance", had a revenue of 2.205 billion yuan and a net profit of 620 million in the first half of 2017, compared with 1.11 billion in 2016 the previous year. The improvement of pleasant loan performance is the most important catalyst for the soaring stock price, although it has risen more than ten times, but the valuation is less than 20 times PE.
In addition, PPDAI, who recently submitted a prospectus in US stocks, his performance is also very good. From 2015 to 2017, total revenue increased from 197 million yuan in 2015 to 1.209 billion yuan in 2016, while net profit increased from a loss of more than 70 million to 500 million. In the first half of 2017, PPDAI's total revenue reached 1.733 billion, more than the sum of the previous two years, and net profit exceeded 1 billion, double that of 2016.
The big logic behind this lucrative phenomenon is:The explosive growth of the industry.
Looking at a related data, according to the forecast of Oliver Wyman, an international consulting firm, the amount of online consumer loans in China will grow from 1.144 trillion yuan in 2016 to 10 trillion in 2021.Compound growth rate as high as 54.3%Meanwhile, by 2021, the number of online consumer loans will reach 256 millionCompound growth rate as high as 28.2%。
Source: Oliver Wyman Research report
Qudian Inc focuses on consumer loans, and its prospects may benefit from the rapid development of the industry.
Oddly enough, Xinerofu, which is still in a state of loss, doubled in less than a month, which may have been affected by the rising share prices of pleasant loans and the explosive growth of the industry.
Backed by the big tree BABA, what are Qudian Inc's "stories"?
Let's move on to the chat shop.
The competition of the Internet is, to some extent, the competition of traffic.
Qudian Inc seems to have discovered this a long time ago, September 2015,Qudian Inc found a new financier-- Ant Financial Services GroupThe latter led the financing of D-round, providing 200 million US dollars to Qudian Inc.
In the PE sector, it is normal for investment institutions to provide growth support services to invested enterprises. Ant Financial Services Group is no exception, its Alipay, sesame credit have cooperated with Qudian Inc, that is, for Qudian Inc opened the super traffic entrance Alipay. In this regard, Qudian Inc also admitted that the "vast majority" of traffic comes from Alipay.
From another point of view, it can also be proved that Ant Financial Services Group had a great influence on Qudian Inc. According to the prospectus, in 2014, before Qudian Inc reached cooperation with Alipay, Qudian Inc's "sales and marketing" expenses accounted for 192% of income, 82% in 2015, and dropped sharply to 12.6% in 2016. Ant Financial Services Group bought a stake in Qudian Inc at the end of 2015, which brought very cheap and huge traffic, resulting in explosive growth.
Futu Information also learned that in terms of ownership structure, founder Luo Min is the largest shareholder, accounting for about 21%, while Ant Financial Services Group's API (Hong Kong) holds 12.8%, is the fifth largest shareholder.
Qudian Inc, is it expensive?
It is worth mentioning that in terms of valuation, according to FutuNiu, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of TTM (the PE corresponding to the net profit of the last 12 months) is 15.7 times. Based on the net profit of 1.24 billion yuan (twice the medium-term profit) and the market capitalization of $3.1 billion in 2017, the PE is about 17 times.
Qudian Inc's current dynamic price-to-earnings ratio TTM is 48 times. But based on a rough 2017 net profit of 1.946 billion yuan (twice the mid-term profit) and a market capitalization of $7.9 billion, PE is about 26.7 times.
By comparison, Qudian Inc seems to be more expensive. However, this is not the case, the reason is that Qudian Inc's profits are growing very fast, while the net profit growth of pleasant loans is also very fast, but the growth rate is slowing. Qudian Inc's net profit in the first half of 2017 rose 697.54 per cent from a year earlier, while pleasant loans were 58 per cent (up 264 per cent in the same period in 2016). For companies with higher growth, the market will naturally give higher valuations. In addition, from another point of view, backing against the big tree BABA also added some color to Qudian Inc.
According to Bloomberg data, Qudian Inc may issue 37.5 million American depositary shares (ADS) at US $24 per share, raising a maximum of US $949 million (the largest US listing of Chinese stocks so far this year). Qudian Inc's market capitalization may reach US $7.9 billion (about RMB 52 billion). (by Phil Newell / Huang Jinlin)
Risk Tip: the speeches of the authors or guests shown above have their own specific positions, and investment decisions need to be based on independent thinking. Futu will try its best but cannot guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the above content, and will not bear any loss or damage caused by any inaccuracy or omission.