Event: the company released its three-quarter report in 2023, with revenue of 1.02 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, + 36.9% year on year, and net profit of 64 million yuan, + 77.6% year on year. Of this total, 23Q3 achieved revenue of 400 million yuan, + 39% year-on-year, and net profit of 32 million yuan, + 2.7 times year-on-year.
Q3 profits further improved, performance has entered an accelerated release cycle. 23Q3 revenue is + 39% year-on-year and + 17.6% month-on-month, which is expected to be better and better for major new energy customers. 23Q3 gross profit margin of 18.1%, year-on-year + 4.16pct, month-on-month + 2.22pct, gross profit margin further improved, the core reason is expected to dilute the fixed cost after mass production climbing. With plenty of orders on hand and M7 orders exceeding expectations from core customers, we judge that profits are expected to continue to improve and performance has entered an accelerated release cycle.
With the reshaping of the seat framework, the third-party suppliers should rise at the right time. The company is a deep strategic cooperation Dongfeng Lear series of local car seat frame leader, mature technology, rich experience in mass production, is a small number of domestic suppliers with the ability to produce front and rear seat frame assembly. In the past, the front seat frame market was mainly self-made by foreign head seat tier1 suppliers, so the seat assembly and front frame market were basically monopolized by the same group of foreign head enterprises. In the era of electric intelligence, the iterative speed of vehicle models accelerates the response of automobile enterprises to parts enterprises, and the inherent supporting relationship is broken. Seat tier1 gradually expands the skeleton assembly in consideration of cost and response efficiency, and the company is expected to seize market share by virtue of strong response and rich experience in technology, mold and mass production.
The quantity and price of the seat skeleton will rise in line with the horizontal extension category, and the performance will break out. Price: the company mainly supports rear seat assembly from 2018 to 2020. the ASP is 335-341yuan. since 2021, the company has won a number of complete seat assembly orders, including Cyrus, Great Wall and BYD, and the bicycle value has increased to 1000-3000 yuan. Quantity: since 2021, the company announced that it has received a total of 9.42 billion yuan for seat skeleton orders, including Huawei Wangjie / BYD / Lantu / XPeng Inc. / Great Wall, which is 12 times the company's 21-year income. The company's performance is expected to burst. The company's new stamping and injection molding products, such as railway container materials, door lock parts, new energy battery packs, copper bars and so on, continue to break through customers and inject new momentum into growth.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the volume and price of the seat skeleton are rising, and new energy customers have made breakthroughs one after another. at the same time, based on the stamping process to enter containers and other new businesses to continue to strengthen the growth potential, the net profit for 23-25 is expected to be 112 million yuan, 235 million yuan and 350 million yuan, respectively, and the growth rate for 23-25 years is 144%, 111% and 49% respectively, corresponding to the previous PE 41.4,19.6,13.2 times to maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning events: demand for new energy vehicles is lower than expected, profits are lower than expected, customer expansion is not as expected, etc.