Main points of investment
In 2023, Q3 achieved a net profit of 73 million yuan, down 168.95% from the previous month, slightly exceeding market expectations. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's revenue was 5.281 billion yuan, down 46.68% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 38 million yuan, down 96.26% from the same period last year; and 41 million yuan was deducted from non-net profit, down 95.86% from the same period last year. In 2023, the revenue of Q3 company was 2.023 billion yuan, down 54.68% from the same period last year, up 61.57% from the previous year; the net profit from home was 73 million yuan, down 78.42% from the same period last year, 168.95% from the previous year, and deducting 76 million yuan from the same period last year, down 77.17% from the same period last year and 171.45% from the previous year. In terms of profitability, 23Q3 gross profit margin was 9.45%, down 1.52pct from the same period last year, up 15.12pct from the same period last year; net profit from home was 3.63%, down 3.99pct from the same period last year, and 12.13pct from the same period last year.
In 2023, Q3 shipments increased by more than 60% month-on-month, and capacity utilization has gradually returned to normal. From the point of view of the shipping side, shipments in the first three quarters exceeded 22000 tons, down about 35% from the same period last year, of which 23Q3 shipped nearly 10,000 tons, an increase of more than 60% compared with Q2, mainly due to the increase in downstream demand, the company's production and sales rebounded, capacity utilization has gradually returned to normal, reached about 70% in September and further increased in October. We expect Q4 shipments to exceed 11000 tons, and annual shipments are expected to reach about 35000 tons. It is about 20% lower than the same period last year.
In 2023, Q3 gross profit margin became positive, and the profit per ton returned to normal. On the profit side, 23Q3's net profit per ton is about 7000 yuan, turning losses into profits, and the profitability has improved obviously, mainly due to the recovery of capacity utilization and the reduction of production costs, as well as the impact of inventory impairment. The average tax price of the company's Q3 is about 230,000 yuan / ton, the month-on-month level is about the same, the gross profit margin is 9.5%, the month-on-month growth 15pct is about 19000 yuan per ton, we expect Q4 profit per ton to be further recovered. The annual profit per ton reached 0.3-0.4 thousand yuan per ton.
Q3 expense rate decreased month-on-month, and inventory level decreased significantly. During the Q3 period in 2023, the cost was 50 million yuan, down 46% from the same period last year, 19% from the previous year, 2.7% from the previous month, and 2.7% from the same period. The management expense rate decreased by 0.8pct compared with the previous month, and the financial expense rate decreased by 1.1% Q3 final inventory of 1.52 billion yuan, down 17% from the beginning of the year, 16% lower than the end of Q2, 50 million yuan of operating cash flow, and 95% lower than the month-on-month ratio.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the company's 23-25 net profit forecast of RMB 53.00 million, compared with the same period last year, which is-89%, 281%, and 33%, corresponding to PE, which is 76x/20x/15x. Considering the imminent release of sodium ion batteries, we maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: sales of electric cars fall short of expectations, and progress of sodium ion batteries falls short of expectations.