AURISCO PHARMA(605116):A NOVEL DRUG SERVICE PLATFORM WITH TRIPLE GROWTH CURVES
AURISCO PHARMA(605116):A NOVEL DRUG SERVICE PLATFORM WITH TRIPLE GROWTH CURVES
Aurisco Pharma is a leading R&D and production platform for small-molecule, polypeptide, and oligonucleotide drugs in China. Starting from active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and intermediates, the Company has gradually expanded into drug preparations, creating a product portfolio covering six major medical fields. The Company boasts leading global market share across its core product categories and has built a diversified product portfolio with high barriers to entry, strong competitiveness, and high growth visibility. We believe that Aurisco Pharma may benefit continuously from increased API demand from generic drugs after the expiration of original drug patents. With new businesses such as preparations and polypeptide/small nucleic acid drugs creating the second and third growth curves, Aurisco Pharma shows high visibility in future earnings growth. To sum up, we give the Company a 2024E target price of Rmb29 and initiate coverage with a "BUY" rating.
奧瑞科製藥是中國領先的小分子、多肽、寡核甘酸藥物研發和生產平臺。該公司從活性藥物成分(原料藥)和中間體開始，逐步擴展到藥物製劑，形成了涵蓋六大醫療領域的產品組合。該公司在其核心產品類別中擁有領先的全球市場份額，並建立了多元化的產品組合，具有較高的進入門檻、強大的競爭力和高增長的可見度。我們相信，在原藥專利到期後，Aurisco Pharma可能會繼續受益於仿製藥原料藥需求的增加。隨著製劑和多肽/小核酸藥物等新業務創造了第二和第三條增長曲線，Aurisco Pharma在未來的收益增長中顯示出很高的可見度。綜上所述，我們給予該公司2024年E目標價人民幣29元，並以“買入”評級開始承保。
A leading R&D and production platform of small-molecule, polypeptide, and small nucleic acid drugs.
領先的小分子、多肽、小核酸藥物研發和生產平臺。
Aurisco Pharma has built a product portfolio covering six medical fields, namely, cardiovascular disease, women's health, respiratory system, anti-tumor, nervous system, and anti-infection. Thanks to its three production bases that have passed the inspections of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the Company's high-quality products are selling well in overseas market, with offshore revenue accounting for 91.3% of its revenue mix in 2022. Moreover, it has a high-quality and stable customer base as well as close partnerships with multiple multinational corporations (MNCs). On Jun 29, 2023, Aurisco Pharma released a prospectus on issuing convertible corporate bonds to non-specific targets, which estimates that the three projects to be funded by the convertible bond offering will contribute an aggregate sales revenue of more than Rmb1.5bn. Superior product selection, process development, and technical capabilities, and outstanding profitability.
Aurisco Pharma建立了涵蓋心血管疾病、女性健康、呼吸系統、抗腫瘤、神經系統和抗感染六個醫療領域的產品組合。得益於其通過美國食品藥品監督管理局(FDA)檢查的三個生產基地，該公司的優質產品在海外市場暢銷，2022年海外收入佔其收入組合的91.3%。此外，它擁有高質量和穩定的客戶基礎，並與多家跨國公司(MNC)建立了密切的合作夥伴關係。2023年6月29日，Aurisco Pharma發佈了面向非特定對象發行可轉換公司債券的招股說明書，其中估計，可轉債發行融資的三個專案將貢獻總計超過15億元人民幣的銷售收入。卓越的產品選擇、工藝開發和技術能力，以及出色的盈利能力。
We believe that Aurisco Pharma's existing core varieties are of high quality and the Company has long been in the top tier by gross profit margin (GPM).
我們相信Aurisco Pharma現有的核心品種是高質量的，公司長期以來一直是毛利率(GPM)最高的公司。
Aurisco Pharma's initial public offering (IPO) and convertible bond prospectuses show that its core varieties have maintained a relatively stable GPM, with some varieties achieving relatively high GPMs in the past six years (eg dydrogesterone/fluticasone propionate API/eplerenone API recorded GPMs of 84.1%/83.5%/67.5% in 1H23). Thanks to the growing sales of high-margin products, Aurisco Pharma has achieved a GPM significantly higher than the industry average. We reckon that the high gross profit stems from the Company's excellent product selection capabilities and testifies its outstanding process development skills and the high barriers of its technology platforms.
Aurisco Pharma的首次公開招股(IPO)和可轉債招股說明書顯示，其核心品種保持了相對穩定的GPM，部分品種在過去六年實現了相對較高的GPM(例如，強力酮/氟替卡鬆丙酸酯原料藥/依普利酮原料藥在23年上半年錄得84.1%/83.5%/67.5%的GPM)。由於高利潤率產品的銷售不斷增長，Aurisco Pharma實現了顯著高於行業平均水準的GPM。我們認為，高毛利源於公司卓越的產品選擇能力，並證明瞭其出色的工藝開發技能和技術平臺的高壁壘。
Second growth curve created by a diversified product portfolio and integrated production of API preparations.
多元化的產品組合和原料藥製劑的一體化生產創造了第二條增長曲線。
Through years of R&D, innovation and technology accumulation in industrialized production, and relying on its six technology platforms, Aurisco Pharma has maintained and improved its high-barrier characteristic API business and proactively built a presence in the field of polypeptide and oligonucleotide drugs. So far, the Company has built a diversified product matrix featuring high barriers, strong competitiveness, and high growth visibility. Aurisco Pharma's core products have been contributing sustained and stable revenues, and some even boast leading shares in the global market. According to its convertible bond prospectus, eplerenone accounted for 36.69% of the global market and abiraterone accounted for 22.89% in 2022. Apart from many API products in the R&D pipeline, the Company has forayed into the field of preparations via dydrogesterone, which boasts API-based advantages, thus creating a second curve of earnings growth. Comprehensive capacity building opens greater headroom for growth.
通過多年來在工業化生產中的研發、創新和技術積累，並依託其六大技術平臺，Aurisco Pharma保持和完善了其高壁壘特色原料藥業務，並主動在多肽和寡核甘酸藥物領域建立了存在。到目前為止，公司已經建立了一個門檻高、競爭力強、增長知名度高的多元化產品矩陣。Aurisco Pharma的核心產品一直在持續穩定地貢獻收入，其中一些甚至在全球市場擁有領先的份額。根據其可轉換債券招股說明書，2022年依普利酮佔全球市場的36.69%，阿位元龍佔22.89%。除了許多正在研發的原料藥產品外，公司還通過擁有原料藥優勢的達卓酮進軍制劑領域，從而創造了第二條收益增長曲線。全面能力建設為增長提供更大淨空空間。
In 2021, Aurisco Pharma established Aurisco Biotech to provide one-stop contract research organization (CRO)/contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) services for the production of oligonucleotide drugs. Aurisco Pharma is also developing several oligonucleotide API products. According to its 1H23 earnings call, Aurisco Pharma's semaglutide API production facilities will be completed in Mar 2024; the new drug application (NDA) for marketing will be completed by the end of 2024, with revenue streams anticipated in 2025. We believe that the Company's semaglutide API production capacity (semi-fermentation method) is at the forefront in China and has a significant cost advantage. After the production capacity is inaugurated, Aurisco Pharma may benefit from the surging demand for semaglutide APIs brought by the marketing and growing sales of semaglutide generic drugs. Potential risks: Industry policy changes and declining drug prices; drug quality control falling short of expectations; slower-than-expected R&D progress; international trade frictions; and disappointing progress in projects financed by fundraising proceeds. Investment recommendation: Aurisco Pharma is a leading R&D and production platform for small-molecule, polypeptide, and oligonucleotide drugs in China. Starting from APIs and intermediates, the Company has gradually expanded into drug preparations, creating a product portfolio covering six major medical fields, namely, respiratory system, cardiovascular diseases, anti-infection, nervous system, anti-tumor, and women's health. Thanks to its outstanding product selection capabilities and leading technical expertise, the Company boasts superior profit margins and has ventured into the fields of oligonucleotides and polypeptides. It has leading global market share across its core product categories and has built a diversified product portfolio with high barriers to entry, strong competitiveness, and high growth visibility. We believe that Aurisco Pharma may benefit continuously from increased API demand due to growing sales of generic drugs after the expiration of original drug patents.
2021年，Aurisco Pharma成立了Aurisco Biotech，為寡核甘酸藥物的生產提供一站式合同研究組織(CRO)/合同開發和製造組織(CDMO)服務。Aurisco Pharma還在開發幾種寡核甘酸原料藥產品。根據其23年上半年的收益電話會議，Aurisco Pharma的Semaglude原料藥生產設施將於2024年3月完工；上市的新藥申請(NDA)將於2024年底完成，預計2025年將產生收入流。我們認為，本公司的半乳糖原料藥產能(半發酵法)在中國處於前列，並具有顯著的成本優勢。在產能投產後，Aurisco Pharma可能會受益於Semagluted仿製藥的營銷和不斷增長的銷售帶來的對Semagluide原料藥的需求激增。潛在風險：行業政策變化和藥品價格下跌；藥品質量控制低於預期；研發進展慢於預期；國際貿易莫耳擦；籌資所得資助的專案進展令人失望。投資建議：奧瑞斯科製藥是中國領先的小分子、多肽、寡核甘酸藥物研發和生產平臺。公司從原料藥和中間體開始，逐步拓展到藥物製劑領域，形成了涵蓋呼吸系統、心血管疾病、抗感染、神經系統、抗腫瘤和女性健康六大醫療領域的產品組合。憑藉其卓越的產品選擇能力和領先的技術專長，該公司擁有卓越的利潤率，並已進軍寡核甘酸和多肽領域。它在其核心產品類別中擁有領先的全球市場份額，並建立了多元化的產品組合，具有高進入門檻、強大的競爭力和高增長可見度。我們相信，由於原藥專利到期後仿製藥銷量的增長，Aurisco Pharma可能會繼續受益於原料藥需求的增加。
With new businesses such as preparations and polypeptide/small nucleic acid drugs creating the second and third growth curves, Aurisco Pharma shows high visibility in future earnings growth. We forecast the 2023E/24E/25E operating revenue to be Rmb1,264mn/1,551mn/1,966mn (up 25.3%/22.8%/26.7% YoY) and attributable net profit to be Rmb225mn/301mn/405mn (up 6.7%/33.7%/34.5% YoY). Based on the average valuation multiple of 34x 2024E PE for comparable companies as well as the impact of the Company's incentive expenses and multiple potential blockbusters in the pipeline, we assign a 2024E TP of Rmb29, implying 52x/39x/29x 2023E/24E/25E PE. We initiate coverage with a "BUY" rating.
隨著製劑和多肽/小核酸藥物等新業務創造了第二和第三條增長曲線，Aurisco Pharma在未來的收益增長中顯示出很高的可見度。我們預測2023E/24E/25E的營業收入為人民幣126400萬元/1551百萬/19.66億元(同比增長25.3%/22.8%/26.7%)，歸屬淨利潤為人民幣2.25億元/3.01億/405百萬元(同比增長6.7%/33.7%/34.5%)。基於可比公司34倍2024E本益比的平均估值倍數，以及公司激勵支出和多個潛在重磅炸彈的影響，我們將2024E本益比定為人民幣29元，即52x/39x/29x 2023E/24E/25E本益比。我們以“買入”評級開始承保。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。