Q-TECH(1478.HK):EXPECT BETTER CLIENT DEMAND IN 2H;HIGH-END CCM TO DRIVE ASP/GPM UPSIDE
Q-TECH(1478.HK):EXPECT BETTER CLIENT DEMAND IN 2H;HIGH-END CCM TO DRIVE ASP/GPM UPSIDE
While 1H23 result is slightly below profit warning earlier due to FX/fair value changes, mgmt. guided stronger-than-expected client demand and better shipment mix in 2H23E. Despite slower 1H23 revenue, we are encouraged to see 32M+ CCM mix of 37.1% above guidance (35%+) and non-smartphone CCM shipment (e.g. auto) of 64% YoY (vs guidance 50%+ YoY). Looking forward, we expect 2H shipment/earnings recovery backed by inventory restocking and spec upgrade (OIS/Periscope), improving UTR and alleviating competition. Trading at 9.2x/5.6x FY23/24E P/E, we think the stock is attractive. Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$3.60, based on 10x FY23E P/E.
尽管由于外汇/公允价值的变化，上半年的业绩略低于早些时候的盈利警告，但mgmt. 在 2H23E 中，客户需求强于预期，出货组合也有所改善。尽管上半年收入放缓，但我们感到鼓舞的是，超过3200万的CCM组合比预期高出37.1％（35％以上），非智能手机CCM出货量（例如汽车）同比增长64％（而预期的同比增长50％以上）。展望未来，在库存补货和规格升级（OIS/PerisCope）、改善UTR和缓解竞争的支持下，我们预计下半年出货量/收益将恢复。我们认为该股的交易价格为9.2倍/5.6倍，我们认为该股具有吸引力。维持买入，新目标价为3.60港元，基于 FY23E 市盈率的10倍。
1H23 results slightly below; Higher 32M+ mix and auto CCM the bright spots. 1H revenue decline of 22.8% YoY was 5%/8% below our/consensus estimates, but 32M+ CCM shipment mix increased 8.9ppts/5.3ppts YoY/QoQ to 37.1%, above prior guidance of 35, reflecting Q-Tech's competitiveness in high-end CCM market. As for non-smartphone CCM, shipment climbed 64.3% YoY, above prior guidance (50%+ YoY) thanks to stronger auto CCM (100%+ YoY), better customer base and product mix. GPM declined 1.9ppts YoY to 3.4% due to smartphone weakness, fierce competition, falling UTR and unfavourable FX. NP dropped 86.9% YoY on revenue/GPM decline.
上半年的业绩略低于预期；3200万+的汽车CCM是亮点。上半年收入同比下降22.8％，比我们的共识预期低5％/8％，但超过3200万的CCM出货量同比增长8.9ppts/5.3ppts至37.1％，高于之前的35％，这反映了Q-Tech在高端CCM市场的竞争力。至于非智能手机CCM，出货量同比增长64.3％，高于之前的预期（同比增长50％以上），这要归功于汽车CCM（同比增长100％以上）、更好的客户群和产品组合。由于智能手机疲软、竞争激烈、UTR下降以及外汇不利，GPM同比下降1.9个百分点至3.4％。由于收入/GPM下降，NP同比下降86.9％。
Bullish guidance on 2H23E recovery; better sales mix, spec upgrade, improving UTR and easing competition. We believe the worst is over for Chinese smartphone market and Android smartphone restocking is well under way driven by product launches in 3Q23E. Mgmt. guided better 2H23E shipment than 1H, and revised up FY23E 32M+ CCM shipment mix to 40%+ (vs. prior 35%+). In addition, Q-tech remains positive on spec upgrade on OIS and periscope, driving ASP upside in 2H23E/2024.
2H23E 复苏的看涨指引；更好的销售组合、规格升级、UTR 改善和缓解竞争。我们认为，中国智能手机市场最糟糕的时期已经过去，在 3Q23E 产品发布的推动下，Android 智能手机的补货正在顺利进行。Mgmt. 引导的 2H23E 出货量比 1 月好，并将 FY23E 3200万+ CCM 的出货量组合上调至 40% +（之前为 35% 以上）。此外，Q-tech对OIS和periscope的规格升级仍然持乐观态度，推动ASP在2024年下半年上涨。
Non-smartphone CCM growth to accelerate. Mgmt. guided strong auto CCM growth driven by top NEV customers and domestic Tier-1 customers' product volume production in 2H23E. ARVR products' mass production for major customer Pico is well on track. In addition, we are also positive on IoT products including DJI drone, smart watch and sweeping robots. Overall, we expect non-smartphone CCM shipment to grow 100% YoY in 2H23E.
非智能手机CCM增长将加速。在 2H23E 中，在顶级新能源汽车客户和国内一级客户产品量产的推动下，Mgmt. 推动了汽车 CCM 的强劲增长。ARVR 产品面向主要客户 Pico 的批量生产已步入正轨。此外，我们还对物联网产品持乐观态度，包括大疆无人机、智能手表和扫地机器人。总体而言，我们预计 2H23E 非智能手机 CCM 的出货量将同比增长 100%。
1H23 weakness priced in; Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$3.60. We believe 1H23 weakness has already priced in, and Q-tech is set to benefit from Android inventory restocking and spec upgrade in 2H23E. The stock is currently trading at 9.2x/5.6x FY23/24E P/E (close to 1-sd below 10-year avg. fwd. P/E), which looks attractive. Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$3.60.
定价为23年上半年疲软；维持买入，新目标价为3.60港元。我们认为 1H23 的疲软已经被考虑在内，Q-tech 将受益于 2H23E 中的 Android 库存补货和规格升级。该股目前的交易价格为23/24财年市盈率的9.2倍/5.6倍（比10年期平均市盈率低近1秒）。P/E），看起来很有吸引力。维持买入，新目标价为3.60港元。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。