Source: Finance Association

The four new iPhone 15 series phones officially went on sale today. Whether it's offline physical stores or online channels, Apple's new products still show their “top notch” strength. However, compared to previous years, the popularity of new Apple products has declined somewhat this year.

The premium situation for new products has always been used by the market to evaluate the popularity of demand for new Apple models. Outside the Apple directly-managed store in Shenzhen's Yitian Holiday Plaza that the reporter actually investigated, the second-hand delivery price of the “scalper” on site was far lower than in previous years. At the same time, judging from the official website channel and waiting time, it took up to 4 weeks for the Pro model to arrive this year, while on the first day the iPhone 14 went on sale, the order time for both the Pro and ProMax models was 6-7 weeks.

Many organizations had anticipated that the sales volume of the 15 series would far exceed the 14 series, but currently, some organizations have lowered their expectations for the 15 series. Liu Yushi, a senior analyst at CINNO Research, said that the expected decline in sales of the Apple 15 series is related to three factors: the lack of actual product upgrades compared to the previous generation, the macroeconomic downturn, and the impact of new Huawei models.

The scene was hot, but several models were destroyed

According to reports, on the 15th when the iPhone 15 series was scheduled to open, within 10 minutes of going on sale, Apple's official website crashed for a while. The official flagship store of the Tmall Apple Store. Within 1 minute of opening, the first batch of iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max was sold out.

Offline physical stores are still hot. At 10 a.m. on the 22nd, the Apple flagship store at Shenzhen Yitian Holiday Plaza was still crowded. Many people experienced the new machine on site. Staff on site wore speakers to introduce the product situation to the guests.

Field staff said that as in previous years, the full 15 series is currently out of stock, and on-site reservations are not supported.

According to Apple's official website, when ordering currently, the ProMax model with the longest waiting time will arrive from November 14 to November 21 this year, with a waiting period of more than 50 days; the Pro model will arrive from October 24 to 30; some colors of the iPhone 15 basic model with the shortest waiting period can be picked up on September 24.

However, there were no tens of meter long lines at the site this year as in previous years. It can be seen that Apple's popularity declined somewhat on the first day of sale.

The decline in popularity is also reflected in the second-hand sales price of “scalpers.” Several “scalpers” that the reporter inquired for a quote at around 11:00 all said that the basic model, Pro model, and some ProMax models are currently no longer being received. The 15 ProMax 256 premium price requested by the reporter ranged from 200-500 yuan.

“If you have it in stock, hurry up and sell it; the Pro is already broken. If it's PM256, I'm adding 300 yuan here. One price per hour can be added to 700 yuan early in the morning; if you wait until the afternoon, the 300 yuan won't be enough.” A scalper said.

The reporter then consulted a number of mobile phone merchants in Huaqiangbei, saying that there may be a slight premium for recycling the iPhone 15 PM and Pro models at the original price, and that the recycling price of the basic model is lower than the selling price. In terms of spot prices, all models in the 15 basic series are already lower than the official sales price. The spot prices of the Pro and PM models range from 300-1,500 yuan to the original price; the new Huawei models still maintain a high premium. The spot price of the Mate 60 Pro version exceeds 9,000 yuan, an increase of over 2,000 yuan from the original price.

Demand weakened, and the 15 series was overlooked by many agencies

The iPhone series has always been Apple's “fist product.”

In recent years, the upgrade of the iPhone series has been dubbed by netizens as “squeezing toothpaste,” yet mobile phones still make the most money for Apple. According to Apple's financial report for the third fiscal quarter, although sales volume for the new quarter was relatively low, Apple's revenue from iPhones for the quarter was still 39.669 billion US dollars, accounting for about 48% of total revenue.

In terms of the high-end mobile phone market, after Huawei's mobile phone business was affected, Apple had no rival. According to CINNO Research data, in the first half of 2023, sales of high-end smart phones over 5,000 yuan in the Chinese smartphone market accounted for 23%, of which Apple accounted for 75%.

Before September, most organizations were optimistic about the sales of new Apple devices. In June of this year, Barclays analysts predicted that the iPhone 15 series would be expected to bring a new round of “supercycle” to Apple, with shipments expected to reach 89 million units during the year. Compared to 78 million units in the same period of the 2022 iPhone 14 series, the iPhone 15 series shipments will set a new record.

But now, that optimistic expectation has changed.

“We predict that the sales volume of Apple phones in the Chinese smart phone market may reach 45.5 million units in 2023, a slight decrease of 2% from the previous year. Among them, Apple's latest generation iPhone 15 series models may have sales volume of around 10 million units in 2023. Compared with the previous iPhone 14 series sales performance for the same period, a decrease of 22%, a decrease of about 2.9 million units.” Liu Yushi told reporters.

Furthermore, many investment banks, including UBS and Mizuho, have indicated that they are weakening the prospects of the iPhone 15, drastically reducing the expected number of new Apple devices to be shipped, by more than 10 million units. The total global shipment volume of the iPhone 15 is expected to be between 70 million and 80 million units.

The decline in the consumer electronics macro environment and the return of new Huawei devices are jointly impacting the sales volume of new Apple devices.

IDC's latest estimate for global smartphone shipments in 2023 will be 1.15 billion units, down 4.7% from the previous year and a record low in ten years. Guo Mingyi, a well-known mobile phone analyst and analyst, said that demand for the Huawei Mate 60 Pro has been strong since it went on sale on August 29, and the H2 shipping plan for 23 years has increased by about 20% to 5.5 million to 6 million units. According to this market trend, the cumulative shipment volume of the Mate 60 Pro 12 months after sale is expected to reach at least 12 million units.

“In the high-end market, Apple's monopoly position will remain this year and next, but in a market with a price range of 600-800 US dollars, Apple's share is likely to continue to decline due to competition from Huawei and other Chinese manufacturers.” Counterpoint senior analyst Ivan Lam further stated.

If mobile phone sales really fall short of expectations, the impact on “fruit chains” may be reflected in next year's Q1 results. “Considering competition and uncertainty in the Chinese market, Apple will adjust its 2024 Q1 production plan based on October or November sales.” Ivan Lam Road.

In the secondary market, many companies with high market capitalization are important suppliers to Apple. These include foundries Fulian Industries (601138.SH) and Lixun Precision (002475.SZ), screen supplier BOE A (000725.SZ), acoustics supplier Goertek (002241.SZ), structural parts supplier Lansi Technology (300433.SZ), and Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing (002600.SZ), PCB supplier Peng Ding Holdings (002938.SZ), battery supplier Desai Battery (000049.SZ), etc.

Editor/jayden