Entering mid-September, the biggest event in the digital world is Apple's annual fall product launch.

Recently, Apple announced that it will hold a press conference at 1 a.m. on September 13, Beijing time. At that time, the new iPhone 15 series and many new products will be presented to everyone.

I believe many coworkers, apart from being concerned about Apple's new products,I'm also concerned about whether the iPhone 15 series will stimulate Apple's stock price in the short to medium term?

Normally, on the eve of the launch of the new iPhone, all kinds of spoilers and small news will take the market by storm. Investors may buy stocks ahead of time, hoping that the new iPhone will drive a wave of rise in stock prices.

Recently, however, it has been impacted by multiple unfavorable news.Apple fell more than 6% in two days from September 6 to 7, and its market value evaporated 190 billion US dollars.However, the company temporarily halted its decline on Friday, and the increase has remained as high as 37% since this year.

Using history as a guide: How did the stock price of the new Apple phone go after it was released?

Although historical data cannot predict the future, it still has some reference value in the financial market.

According to data from the past 13 years, Apple's stock price did not necessarily rise on the day of the press conference, and it fluctuated greatly during the intraday period. For example, on the day of the press conference on September 8, 2022, Apple's stock price rose all the way up in early trading, suddenly dived in midday trading, and finally closed down.

Futu News has compiled Apple's stock price performance at new product launches since 2010. From this, we can see that after Apple releases new iPhones over the years, the stock price usually falls first and then rises.

Normally, in these years when stock prices fall, the new iPhone is accused of lacking innovation, dragging down the stock price. For example, when the iPhone XR was released that year, it was criticized as only an affordable iPhone, leaving fans with no incentive to switch.

According to the chart below, the stock price basically falls on the day of every press conference.Since the introduction of the iPhone 4, more than 70% of Apple's stock price has declined on the day the iPhone was released.

Because after the press conference, market expectations are released, stock prices will fall. There will be various critical voices in the market, such as the price of the new iPhone being too expensive, screen issues, design, etc. Over the past decade, this phenomenon has happened every year. Apple's stock price will also experience a brief decline as a result.

However, in the 60 days after the press conference, there was an increase of 9 times from 13 times, with the highest increase of 20%.Because the market will find that no matter how loud the criticism is, there is still an endless flow of people buying a new iPhone.

If investors see the situation clearly after the press conference and see the opportunity within 60 days, as long as they buy Apple before November, their chances of winning money can be as high as 70%.Moreover, holding shares until the traditional peak sales season in the US, such as December and January, is expected to further stimulate the rise in consumer stocks such as Apple.

Normally, from Halloween to Christmas is the peak consumption season. Investors generally believe that iPhone shipments will benefit from the year-end consumer season. If demand is strong,Stock prices will rise in waves before the year-end market comes.

Is it time to buy an Apple? What do analysts think

This time, the iPhone 15 series was touted by the market as the biggest version upgrade since the iPhone X, which is highly anticipated. However, as Apple's stock price continued to plummet before the press conference, it also sparked a lot of bottom-digging discussions.

According to reports, the recent decline has instead spurred Apple “believers” to buy call options at bargain prices. At the same time, risk-conscious investors are also increasing their demand for options to hedge against further declines in Apple's stock price.

For some analysts,For investors who choose to buy call options at bargain prices, the fall in Apple's stock price contains huge investment opportunities. They can bet on some Apple bullish options that suddenly become cheap, and then cause a wave of rebound at a relatively low cost.

The data as of last Friday showsCurrently, the most actively traded option is the $180 call option due on September 15.These options give investors hope to profit from a temporary rebound above this level. Apple's implied volatility is about 22.09%, and the sell-to-purchase ratio is 0.62. However, judging from the degree of volatility, up to now, the volatility of put options due on September 15 is higher than that of call options, indicating that there are currently more investors betting on falling stock prices.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in the latest report,The upcoming release of the iPhone 15 will drive Apple's stock price up 20% from current levels.In his report, he stated,

This is not only because the new product lineup will offer notable new features, it is expected that the new products will be accompanied by price increases,This pushes Apple into a “mini supercycle.”

Furthermore, with regard to the demand for iPhones in China, analysts pointed out that everyone is too worried, and it is expected that sales volume in China will continue to grow significantly. The bank estimates that in the past 18 months, Apple's market share in the Chinese market has increased by about 300 basis points, while the iPhone 15 will continue to add growth impetus to Apple.

However, Guo Mingyi, the “analyst who knows Apple the most,” wrote an article stating,Shipments of the Huawei Mate60 Pro are expected to increase significantly, which may have an impact on the sales volume of the Apple iPhone 15.

J.P. Morgan Chase abandoned its bullish stance on Apple and lowered Apple's stock price target to 230 US dollars per share (it was raised to 235 US dollars in August). The bank said,

Because expectations for the upcoming release of the new iPhone 15 are low, it is not expected that there will be a significant increase in owners of new models.

Cow friends,

Are you looking forward to this year's Apple press conference?

How will Apple's stock price go next?

Welcome to leave a message to discuss in the comments area~

Editor/Somer