MICROPORT CARDIOFLOW MEDTECH(2160.HK):1H23 RESULTS INLINE;MAINTAINING GUIDANCE OF 4 000+ IMPLANTS IN 2023
MICROPORT CARDIOFLOW MEDTECH(2160.HK):1H23 RESULTS INLINE;MAINTAINING GUIDANCE OF 4 000+ IMPLANTS IN 2023
In 1H23, CardioFlow recorded a revenue of RMB176m, up 41.4% YoY, with total implantation volume up 49.7% YoY to 1,999 (including 1,923 in China vs. 1,200 from Peijia Medical and c.2,400 from Venus Medical (BOCIe)), in line with BOCIe. GPM further improved and operational expenses ratio continued to optimise. The management maintained its guidance of 4,000+ implants unchanged. CardioFlow continues to expand its hospital coverage to 505 centres, with strong implantation growth in top 20 centres (+56.0%) and non-top-100 centers (+55.2%), leveraging MicroPort's distribution channel and Feiyan Scheme. We revise down our TP to HK$2.2 and maintain HOLD.
23年上半年，CardioFlow錄得1.76億元人民幣的收入，同比增長41.4％，總植入量同比增長49.7％，達到1,999例（包括中國1,923例，培佳醫療的1,200例，金星醫療（BoCiE）的約2400例），與BocIe持平。GPM 進一步改善，運營費用比率繼續優化。管理層維持了對4,000多種植入物的指導方針，保持不變。利用MicroPort的分銷渠道和飛燕計劃，CardioFlow繼續將其醫院覆蓋範圍擴大到505箇中心，排名前20的中心（+56.0％）和非前100名的中心（+55.2％）的植入量強勁增長。我們將目標價下調至2.2港元並維持持有。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
1H23 results in line: in 1H23, CardioFlow recorded a revenue of RMB176m, up 41.4% YoY, in line with BOCIe. Overseas revenue grew by 243.1% YoY to RMB6.29m. GPM further improved by 2.4ppts to 66.1% thanks to its strengthened bargaining power, domestic sourcing, improved production yield rate and manufacturing efficiency. RnD and administrative expense ratio decreased by 1.7ppts and 11.0ppts to 62.1% and 16.2%, respectively while distribution cost expense ratio (49.2%) remained flat, summing up its operational expenses to revenue ratio optimised by 12.5ppts to 127.4% in 1H 2023. Attributable net loss widened from RMB122m in 1H22 to RMB179m, partially due to fair value loss of financial instrument and share loss from its equity-accounted investees. As of 1H23, CardioFlow has cash balance of RMB2.0bn.
上半年業績一致：23年上半年，CardioFlow錄得1.76億元人民幣的收入，同比增長41.4％，與BoCie持平。海外收入同比增長243.1％，至人民幣629萬元。GPM進一步提高了2.4個百分點至66.1％，這要歸功於其議價能力的增強、國內採購、生產收益率和製造效率的提高。RnD和管理費用比率分別下降了1.7個百分點和11.0個百分點至62.1％和16.2％，而分銷成本支出比率（49.2％）保持平穩，總而言之，其運營費用與收入的比率在2023年上半年優化了12.5個百分點至127.4％。應占淨虧損從22年上半年的人民幣1.22億元擴大至1.79億元人民幣，部分原因是金融工具的公允價值虧損和股票會計投資者的股票虧損。截至23年上半年，CardioFlow的現金餘額爲20億元人民幣。
Management guidance: although July and August are the off season to TAVR industry, monthly implantation volume in July was higher than average monthly implants in 1H23. However, the management did see the implantation slowdown in August. Considering uncertainty impacts from ongoing anti-graft campaign in China but the low base in 2H22, CardioFlow expects industry implantation volume to grow at 40%-50% in 2023. The management maintained its guidance of 4,000+ implants this year unchanged. In terms of ex-factory price, the management expects single- digit price reduction per year. The management expects GPM continue to climb to 68%, and operational expenses ratio continue to decrease in 2H23. Besides, CardioFlow expects to turn positive by YE25 or 1H26. Regarding to revenue from overseas markets, the management expects its VitaFlow Liberty to receive CE mark in 4Q23, with revenue from overseas markets accounting for 10% of total revenue in 2024, respectively. As a recap, the management expects c.1,000 implants in overseas market in 2024.
管理層指導：儘管7月和8月是TAVR行業的淡季，但7月份的月植入量高於23年上半年的平均月植入量。但是，管理層確實在8月份看到了植入放緩。考慮到中國正在進行的反貪運動的不確定性影響，但下半年基數較低，CardioFlow預計，2023年行業植入量將以40％-50％的速度增長。管理層維持了今年對4,000多例植入物的指導方針不變。就出廠價格而言，管理層預計價格每年將降幅爲個位數。管理層預計，GPM將繼續攀升至68％，運營費用比率將在23年下半年繼續下降。此外，CardioFlow預計將在25年或26年上半年轉爲正值。關於海外市場的收入，管理層預計其VitaFlow Liberty將在23年第四季度獲得CE標誌，來自海外市場的收入將分別佔2024年總收入的10％。回顧一下，管理層預計，到2024年，海外市場將有大約1,000個植入物。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
(i) Better/worse-than-expected sales ramp-up of TAVR products; (ii) faster/slower-than-expected R&D progress, and (3) fiercer competition TAVR industry.
(i) TAVR產品的銷售增長好於/低於預期；（ii）研發進展更快/低於預期，以及（3）TAVR行業競爭更加激烈。
Valuation
估價
Post results, we fine-tune our 2023-25 revenue, lower 24-25E gross margin and improve operating margin as the company dedicate to optimized its operational efficiency. Updated CNY/HKD FX rate to 1.12, and derive 12-month TP of HK$2.2 (WACC: 11.1% and terminal growth: 3.0% unchanged). Maintain HOLD.
業績公佈後，我們對2023-25年的收入進行了微調，降低了24-25E的毛利率，並提高了營業利潤率，因爲該公司致力於優化其運營效率。人民幣兌港元匯率更新至1.12，並得出12個月目標價爲2.2港元（WACC：11.1%，終端漲幅：3.0% 不變）。保持 HOLD。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。