KUNLUN ENERGY(135.HK):INTERIM EARNINGS BEAT;REITERATE BUY WITH HIGHER TARGET PRICE
KUNLUN ENERGY(135.HK):INTERIM EARNINGS BEAT;REITERATE BUY WITH HIGHER TARGET PRICE
The net profit of Kunlun Energy grew 5% YoY to RMB3,222m in 1H23, 9% above our forecast. The strong growth at its natural gas sales segment more than offset the earnings declines at all other segments.We expect the company to show flat earnings in 2H23 on a HoH basis.We raise our 2023-25 earnings forecasts by 10% mainly to reflect the better-than-expected earnings of its LPG sales and natural gas sales segments. Reiterate BUY with target price increased to HK$9.29.
崑崙能源的淨利潤在23年上半年同比增長5％，達到32.22億元人民幣，比我們的預期高出9％。其天然氣銷售板塊的強勁增長足以抵消所有其他細分市場的收益下降。我們預計該公司在23年下半年的收益將持平。我們將2023-25年的收益預期上調了10％，主要是爲了反映其液化石油氣銷售和天然氣銷售板塊的收益好於預期。重申買入，目標價上調至9.29港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
The better-than-expected 1H23 earnings mainly came from the higher-than- expected profit of its LPG sales and natural gas sales segments. The operating profit of its LPG sales segment (down 8% YoY to RMB423m) was 1.7x above our forecast on higher-than-expected price spread. That of its natural gas sales segment was 4% above our forecast on lower-than-expected operating costs.
23年上半年的收益好於預期，主要來自其液化石油氣銷售和天然氣銷售板塊的利潤高於預期。由於價差高於預期，其液化石油氣銷售板塊的營業利潤（同比下降8％，至人民幣4.23億元）比我們的預期高出1.7倍。由於運營成本低於預期，其天然氣銷售板塊的銷售額比我們的預期高出4％。
The operating profit of its natural gas sales segment surged 25% YoY to RMB4.4bn in 1H23 as its retail gas sales volume grew 9% YoY, its dollar margin remained stable (RMB0.495/m3 in 1H23 vs RMB494/m3 in 1H22) and its residential new connections surged 22% YoY.
其天然氣銷售板塊的營業利潤同比增長25％，至44億元人民幣，原因是其零售天然氣銷售量同比增長9％，美元利潤率保持穩定（23年上半年爲0.495元人民幣，上半年爲494元人民幣），住宅新增連接同比增長22％。
Looking ahead, we expect the company to see flat earnings in 2H23 on a HoH basis. Its retail gas should grow at slightly faster pace in 2H23 as the company guides for 10% YoY growth for full-year. The profitability of its LNG processing plants should improve as upstream gas supply increases. All these should be offset by lower output of its E&P segment as the contract of its PSC project in Liaohe Oilfield has expired in February 2023.
展望未來，我們預計該公司在23年下半年的收益將持平。其零售天然氣將在23年下半年以略快的速度增長，因爲該公司預計全年將同比增長10％。隨着上游天然氣供應的增加，其液化天然氣加工廠的盈利能力應該會提高。所有這些都應被其勘探和生產板塊產量的下降所抵消，因爲其遼河油田PSC項目的合同已於2023年2月到期。
We increase our 2023-25 earnings forecasts by 10% mainly as we increase our earnings forecasts for its natural gas sales and LPG sales segments.
我們將2023-25年的收益預期上調了10％，這主要是由於我們提高了對天然氣銷售和液化石油氣銷售領域的收益預期。
We reiterate our BUY call given its low valuations (7.1x 2023E P/E). It gas sales business posted the fastest earnings growth among its peers in 1H23 on strong volume growth. The negative impact from potential decline in new connections in future is also the lowest as we estimate it to account for only 7% of its earnings in 2023.
鑑於其估值較低（2023年市盈率爲7.1倍），我們重申買入看漲期權。由於銷量增長強勁，其天然氣銷售業務在23年上半年公佈了同行中最快的收益增長。未來新連接可能減少的負面影響也最低，因爲我們估計它僅佔其2023年收益的7％。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Further impairment for LNG processing business.
液化天然氣加工業務的進一步減值。
Low profitability of newly acquired city gas projects.
新收購的城市燃氣項目盈利能力低。
Valuation
估價
We raise our DCF valuation from HK$9.19 to HK$10.32, mainly reflecting the increases in our earnings forecasts. Hence, we raise our target price from HK$8.27 to HK$9.29 as we still set our target price at a 10% discount to our DCF valuations. Our new target price is equal to 11.6x 2023E P/E.
我們將DCF估值從9.19港元上調至10.32港元，這主要反映了我們收益預期的上升。因此，我們將目標價從8.27港元上調至9.29港元，因爲我們仍將目標價定爲比DCF估值折扣10％。我們的新目標價格等於2023年市盈率的11.6倍。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。