CHINA SUNTIEN(956.HK):MARGINALLY DROP IN GAS TRANSMISSION VOLUME AND STEADY POWER GENERATION
CHINA SUNTIEN(956.HK):MARGINALLY DROP IN GAS TRANSMISSION VOLUME AND STEADY POWER GENERATION
China Suntien 's 1H23 attributable net profit dropped 10.97% YoY to RMB1,439mn and operating cash flows declined by 12.5% YoY. The miss was attributable to: 1) reduced gas transmission volume growth; 2) lower wholesales gas transmission fee; 3) feeble economic recovery; and 4) on-grid tariff fall thanks to rising electricity trading. Mgmt. stays positive in 2H23E with lower gas cost as gas sources diversity and sturdily proceeding with project constructions. Additionally, Suntien's new energy installation will speed up in 2H23 and we predict it can achieve 480MW in 2023. Thus, we lower FY23/24E earnings by 7.2%/3.9% to RMB2,195/2,699mn.
新天23年上半年的應占淨利潤同比下降10.97％，至人民幣14.39億元，運營現金流同比下降12.5％。虧損歸因於：1）天然氣輸送量增長放緩；2）批發天然氣輸送費降低；3）經濟復甦乏力；4）電力交易增加導致上網電價下降。Mgmt. 在 2H23E 中保持樂觀，天然氣成本較低，因爲氣源多樣化，項目建設穩步進行。此外，新天的新能源裝機將在23年下半年加速，我們預計它將在2023年達到480兆瓦。因此，我們將23/24財年的收益降低了7.2％/3.9％，至21.9億元人民幣/26.99億元人民幣。
Maintain BUY with TP trimmed to HK$4.16.
維持買入，目標價下調至4.16港元。
1H23 earnings slightly missed. Suntien's revenue slipped by 1.74% YoY and its net profit dropped by 15.32% YoY. The miss was dragged by: 1) for new energy segment, weaker wind resources lead to missed power generation growth of 1.91% to 7,719GWh; on-grid tariff declined as larger proportion of electricity trading; 2) For gas segment, the total gas transmission volume decreased by 2.9% YoY. In particular, retail gas sales and wholesales gas sales volume squeezed by 6.3% YoY and 4.9% YoY. Additionally, the declined wholesales gas transmission fee dropped from RMB0.223/cbm to RMB0.152/cbm (incl-tax) and relatively high gas cost weighed Suntien's gas segment profit.
23年上半年的收益略有下降。新天收入同比下降1.74％，淨利潤同比下降15.32％。虧損是由以下因素拖累的：1）在新能源領域，風力資源疲軟導致發電量未達到1.91％，至7,719GWh；隨着電力交易比例的增加，上網電價下降；2）天然氣板塊的天然氣輸送總量同比下降了2.9％。特別是，天然氣零售銷售和天然氣批發銷量同比下降6.3％，同比下降4.9％。此外，天然氣批發費下降從0.223元/立方米降至0.152元/立方米人民幣（含稅），相對較高的天然氣成本打壓了新天天然氣板塊的利潤。
2H23 to improve gas transmission volume and speed up new energy installation. Even though 1H23 total gas sales transmission volume dropped year-on-year with higher gas cost, we are optimistic on Suntien's earnings growth in 2H23E due to continuous economic recovery and lower gas cost of gas source diversity. Additionally, the new energy installation progress was slower due to delayed quota approval in 1H23, Suntien's mgmt. states that its new energy installation progress will speed up to reach its target of 450- 500MW in FY23E. We maintained our expectation of its newly installed wind power capacity of 480MW and on grid-tariff of RMB0.446/cbm in 2023.
2H23，以改善天然氣輸送量並加快新能源安裝。儘管由於天然氣成本上漲，2023年上半年天然氣銷售總量同比下降，但由於經濟持續復甦和天然氣來源多樣性的天然氣成本降低，我們對新天在 2H23E 中的收益增長持樂觀態度。此外，由於配額批准延遲到上半年，新天公司管理層表示，其新能源安裝進度將加快，達到 FY23E 中450-500兆瓦的目標。我們維持了對2023年新裝機風力發電容量爲480兆瓦和0.446元人民幣/立方米的電網費用的預期。
The Tangshan LNG project's first phase smoothly involved in operations. Suntien's phase I of the Tangshan LNG Receiving Station project completed first LNG shipment. The projected LNG usage for the project from 2023 to 2025 is estimated to be 400-500/1500-2000/2000/3000 thous tons. As additional phases of the project become operational gradually, significant increases in profitability are anticipated.
唐山液化天然氣項目一期順利投入運營。新天唐山液化天然氣接收站項目一期完成了第一批液化天然氣裝運。據估計，從2023年到2025年，該項目的液化天然氣使用量爲400-500/1500-2000/2000/3000萬噸。隨着項目其他階段的逐步投入運營，預計盈利能力將大幅提高。
Maintain BUY with TP adjusted to HK$4.16. We revise our FY23/24E earnings outlook slightly by -7.2%/-3.9% to RMB2,195/2,699mn respectively on lower-than-expected gas transmission volume and more conservative assumption with 3.3% power generation growth in 23E.
維持買入，目標價調整爲4.16港元。由於天然氣輸送量低於預期，以及更爲保守的假設，23財年發電量增長3.3％，我們將23/24財年的收益前景小幅上調-7.2％/-3.9％，至21.9億元人民幣。
However, we think Suntien is still on track to accelerate earnings growth in FY23E. Our SOTP-based TP is cut from HK$4.57 to HK$4.16 after adjusting FX, reflecting 7.3x forward P/E (lower than 3-year avg.PE of 8.16x).
但是，我們認爲新天仍有望在 FY23E 中加速收益增長。調整外匯後，我們基於SOTP的目標價從4.57港元下調至4.16港元，反映了7.3倍的遠期市盈率（低於3年平均市盈率8.16倍）。
Maintain BUY.
維持買入。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。