CMGE TECHNOLOGY(302.HK):LOOKING INTO IMPROVING PROFITABILITY IN 2H23E
CMGE TECHNOLOGY(302.HK):LOOKING INTO IMPROVING PROFITABILITY IN 2H23E
CMGE delivered above-industrial rev growth (+25% YoY) and profitability in 1H23.Looking ahead, we expect 2H23E to see rev acceleration and stronger earnings, for: 1) rising contribution from newly launched games in 1H23; 2) several key titles to be launched in 4Q23E; 3) R&D to decline with lower outsourcing cost and manageable S&M. We think pipeline delay has been partially priced in recent stock price, and the delay would be acceptable for fierce competition and high TAC in summer. We trimmed its earnings forecast by 28%-39% in FY23-25E to reflect 2H23E pipeline reschedule. Our DCF-based TP was adjusted to HK$3.2.
CMGE在上半年實現了高於工業化水平（同比增長25％）和盈利能力。展望未來，我們預計 2H23E 的轉速將加速並獲得更強的收益，因爲：1) 23年上半年新推出的遊戲的貢獻增加；2) 幾款關鍵遊戲將在 4Q23E 中推出；3) 研發將隨着較低的外包成本和可控的標準普爾而下降。我們認爲，在最近的股價中，產品線延遲是可以接受的，延遲是可以接受的。夏季競爭激烈，TAC高。我們在 FY23-25E 中將其收益預期下調了28％-39％，以反映 2H23E 管道的重新安排。我們基於差價合約的目標價調整爲3.2港元。
1H23 with above-industrial growth and profitability. Rev +24.6% YoY in 1H23, below our estimates, primarily attributable to resilient legacy games and several new launches, such as Sword and Fairy: Wen Qing , Rakshasa Street: Chosen One , Cultivation Fantasy . Bottom line achieved breakeven with profit of RMB76mn in 1H23 (suggesting adj. NPM at 5%), backed by higher-than-expected other income at RMB70mn and disciplined S&M, partially offset by lower GP and higher R&D expenses. 1H23 GPM declined to 34% from 41% in 1H22, due to 1) higher commission shared by publishing channels; 2) higher amortization of IP royalties on the publishing of IP games (e.g. Ultraman: The Gathering).
2013 年上半年，增長率和盈利能力均高於工業水平。 23年上半年同比增長24.6％，低於我們的預期，這主要歸因於彈性的傳統遊戲和幾款新推出的遊戲，例如《劍與仙女：文青》、《 羅剎街：天選一號》、《培養幻想》。底線在23年上半年實現盈虧平衡，利潤爲人民幣7,600萬元（暗示調整後）NPM爲5％），其他收入高於預期，爲7000萬元人民幣，標準普爾嚴明，但部分被較低的GPM和更高的研發費用所抵消。23年上半年的GPM從22年上半年的41％下降至34％，原因是1）出版渠道分攤的佣金增加；2）IP遊戲出版的IP特許權使用費攤銷增加（例如《奧特曼：聚會》）。
Pipeline delay partially priced in, looking into strong earnings in 2H23E.In 2H23E, two titles would be rescheduled to launch in 4Q23E, including Hoop City 3v3 , and Soul Land: Shrek College . Given fierce competition and high TAC in summer, we view this delay as acceptable. As the blockbuster game, Sword and Fair World has obtained licenses for both mobile and PC versions and several rounds of testing will begin before launch by the end of 2023. With rising contribution from newly launched games in 1H23, we expect 2H23E to see rev acceleration and margin improvement. Mgmt. guided R&D expenses to decline YoY for lower outsourcing cost, and S&M/rev ratio at 10% in 2H23E, attributable to 1) brand effect of IPs, 2) higher user retention with effective operating, and 3) multiple distribution channels to achieve high ROI.
Pipeline 延遲部分定價，考慮到2H23E.In 2H23E 的強勁收益，有兩款遊戲將改期在 4Q23E 上市，包括 Hoop City 3v3 和 Soul Land：Shrek College。鑑於夏季的激烈競爭和高TAC，我們認爲這種延遲是可以接受的。作爲一款轟動一時的遊戲，Sword and Fair World 已獲得移動版和PC版的許可，在2023年底發佈之前將開始幾輪測試。隨着 23 年上半年新推出的遊戲的貢獻不斷增加，我們預計 2H23E 的轉速將加速和利潤率的提高。由於外包成本降低，Mgmt. 指導研發費用同比下降，2H23E 的標準普爾/轉化率爲10％，這歸因於1）IP的品牌效應，2）通過有效的運營提高用戶留存率，以及3）通過多種分銷渠道實現高投資回報率。
Maintain BUY. We trimmed its earnings by 28%-39% in FY23-25E to reflect 2H23E pipeline reschedule. Our DCF-based TP was adjusted to HK$3.2, with multiple rolling over to 15x FY24E P/E. The stock is trading at 10x/7x FY23/24E P/E, with limited downside risk, in our view.
維持買入。我們在 FY23-25E 中將其收益削減了28％-39％，以反映 2H23E 管道的重新安排。我們基於DCF的目標價調整爲3.2港元，多次展期至15倍 FY24E 市盈率。我們認爲，該股的交易價格爲23/24財年市盈率的10倍/7倍，下行風險有限。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。