23Q2 accelerates the realization of revenue and profits, maintaining the "buy" rating
Company 23 H1 realized revenue / return net profit / deducted non-return net profit of 5.66 million yuan, compared with the same period last year, + 38.0%, 5.8%, 9.4%, of which the return net profit is basically in line with our expectations (110 million yuan). 23Q2 realized revenue of 364 million yuan, year-on-year + 118.22%, month-on-month + 80.29%, net profit of 77.56 million yuan, year-on-year + 939%, month-on-month + 172%. We maintain the company's 23-25 year return net profit forecast of 223, 322, and 425 million yuan. Considering the rising prosperity of international emerging markets, it is expected to bring new growth momentum for domestic companies. Using PEG valuation method, it is comparable to the company's 23-year Wind consensus expectation average of 0.8x. The company has a higher degree of internationalization and smaller business scale, and is expected to achieve more flexible growth. The 23-25 CAGR is about 39% (comparable average 23%), and the company is given a 23-year 1.0xPEG with a target price of 35.84 yuan (the previous value is 43.29 yuan in current equity) and maintains a "buy" rating.
23Q2 comprehensive gross profit margin increases, overseas income grows high
23H1's gross profit margin is 35.30%, year-on-year-11.2pct, of which 23Q2 is 36.8%, year-on-year + 11.5pct, month-on-month + 4.3pct. From a business point of view, the revenue of 23H1 foundation treatment / pile foundation engineering is 4.6 / 110 million yuan, which is 272% higher than that of the same period last year. From a regional point of view, the domestic / external revenue of 23H1 is RMB 21.0 billion, which is + 29.4% and 64.1% compared with the same period last year. This is mainly due to the gradual transformation of newly signed overseas contracts into revenue over the past 22 years, which led to a substantial increase in overseas income in the first half of the year, accounting for 63.0%, and an increase in 2.5pct compared with the same period last year.
Scale effect led to a decrease in the expense rate during the period, and the 23Q2 homing net interest rate significantly increased the expense rate during the 23H1 company by 14.3%, year-on-year-1.3pct, in which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate increased by 8.43 million yuan compared with the same period last year, mainly due to exchange losses of 1.23 million yuan and exchange gains of 7 million yuan by 22H1. The growth of other expenses is lower than the growth rate of income, realizing the scale effect. The 23H1 net interest rate is from-8.7pct to 18.7% compared with the same period last year, of which the expense rate / net interest rate during the 23Q2 period is 11.9% and 21.3%, year-on-year-6.1/+16.8pct. The net operating cash of 23H1 is 55 million yuan,-86 million yuan compared with the same period last year. We expect that the cost outflow is mainly due to the initial cost of newly signed orders, with a cash-to-cash ratio of 96.3% to 95.6%, year-on-year-20.0/-14.1pct.
The newly signed order of 23H1 is + 29% compared with the same period last year, which is fully in line with the newly signed order of "Belt and Road Initiative" booming market company 23H1, which is 670 million yuan, + 28.9% compared with the same period last year, of which 490 million yuan was signed abroad, accounting for 73%. It mainly won new orders from Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Dubai, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh and other countries and regions. The company deeply ploughed Southeast Asia, accounting for more than 60% of revenue in 2017-2019, accounting for 43% in 22 years, and has undertaken projects such as Singapore Changi Airport, Indonesia Yawan high-speed railway, Malaysia coal-fired power plant and so on. The regional competitiveness of the Middle East market has gradually improved, and it has the strength to compete with well-known international geotechnical engineering companies. It has successively undertaken major projects such as Dubai Clean Coal Power Station, Dubai World Island, Dubai Palm Island, Saudi Tanajib Petrochemical Project, Saudi Jizan Airport, and so on. Income in the Middle East accounted for more than 20% of total revenue many times from 2017 to 2022, and is expected to benefit from the landing of Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" plan in the future.
Risk hint: overseas investment is not as expected, newly signed orders are not as expected, and profit margins are not as expected.