BLUE MOON GROUP(6993.HK):1H23 RESULT MISS;AIMING AT IMPROVED OPERATING PROSPECTS IN 2H23
BLUE MOON GROUP(6993.HK):1H23 RESULT MISS;AIMING AT IMPROVED OPERATING PROSPECTS IN 2H23
Blue Moon reported a net loss of HK$167m, higher than our expected net loss of HK$84m, due to 21% revenue miss and 3.3ppt GP margin miss on additional discounts given certain KA client and reduced sell- in to distributor channels for channel inventory optimisation. This was partially mitigated by operating cost and tax savings and higher-than- expected interest income. However, seeing revenue and net profit reverted to 32% and 60% YoY growth in July, mgmt. remained positive in improving operating prospects in 2H23, coped with step-up in new product launches. We believe uncertainties in both revenue and margin remain high and maintain HOLD.
Blue Moon 報告淨虧損1.67億港元，高於我們預期的淨虧損8400萬港元，這是由於某些KA客戶的額外折扣導致收入虧損21％，GP利潤率下降了3.3個百分點，並減少了向分銷商渠道的銷售渠道以優化渠道庫存。運營成本和稅收節省以及高於預期的利息收入部分緩解了這種情況。但是，由於7月份收入和淨利潤恢復到32％和同比增長60％，MGMT.對23年下半年的經營前景保持樂觀態度，應對新產品發佈的加強。我們認爲，收入和利潤率的不確定性仍然很高，因此維持不變。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
2H23 and 2023 outlook. Despite weak sales in 2Q23 (mainly April/May), mgmt. remained positive on operating prospects in 2H23, the usual sales peak season for the company. Mgmt. indicated that revenue and net profit reverted to 32% and 60% YoY growth in July. Mgmt. believed that channel inventory at distributor channel has reverted to healthy level, underpinning accelerated sell- in in 2H23. Mgmt. aims to drive sales growth on the back of channel expansion (under an O2O model) and new product launches. For instance, it launched its body wash product "Jing Xiang" in July 2023, further enriching its product offerings. It intends to increase the number of distributor to about 2,000 by end-2023, from 1,700 as of end-June 2023. For e-commerce, it tapped into emerging platforms (e.g. Douyin) to capture the rising consumer demands there. Mgmt. expects likely GP margin expansion in 2H23, on softened raw material prices. Besides, deep discounts to certain KA client is no longer a drag for both GP margin and revenue in 2H23. That said, we expect rising operating costs for promoting new products might partially offset the GP margin benefit.
下半年和2023年展望。儘管23年第二季度（主要是4月/5月）銷售疲軟，但mgmt. 對公司通常的銷售旺季——下半年的經營前景仍然樂觀。Mgmt. 表示，7月份收入和淨利潤分別恢復到32％和60％的同比增長。Mgmt. 認爲，分銷商渠道的渠道庫存已恢復到健康水平，這支撐了23年下半年的加速銷售。Mgmt. 的目標是在渠道擴張（O2O模式下）和新產品發佈的支持下推動銷售增長。例如，它於2023年7月推出了沐浴露產品 “Jing Xiang”，進一步豐富了其產品範圍。它打算到2023年底將分銷商數量從截至2023年6月底的1,700家增加到約2,000家。在電子商務方面，它利用新興平台（例如抖音）來捕捉那裏不斷增長的消費者需求。Mgmt.預計，由於原材料價格疲軟，GP利潤率可能會在23年下半年擴大。此外，對某些KA客戶的大幅折扣不再是23下半年GP利潤率和收入的拖累。儘管如此，我們預計推廣新產品的運營成本上漲可能會部分抵消全科醫生的利潤收益。
1H23 results miss. Revenue declined by 23% YoY in 1H23, 21% below our expectation, due to RMB depreciation (c.7%) and weaker-than-expected offline sales. KA channel and distributor channel sales dropped by 59% and 41%, due to deep discounts provided to certain KA account and weak demand from distributor given high channel inventory and tight cash. Online sales recorded 2% YoY decline (or 6.4% growth, ex FX) in 1H23. GP margin expanded by 2.2ppt YoY to 55.2%, thanks to softened raw material prices (ie LDPE and palm oil), offset by deepened discounts to certain KA account. Distribution cost to sales ratio rose 7.8ppt YoY, due to operating deleverage. Admin expense to sales ratio increased by 6.9ppt YoY, due to rising staff cost (on additional hire of R&D staff and wage inflation). As a result, the company recorded an operating loss of HK$422m in 1H23 (with OP margin of -19%), compared with an operating loss of HK$104m in 1H22 (with OP margin of -3.6%).
上半年未有成績。由於人民幣貶值（約0.7％）和線下銷售低於預期，23年上半年收入同比下降23％，比我們的預期低21％。KA渠道和分銷商渠道的銷售額下降了59％和41％，這是由於向某些KA賬戶提供了大幅折扣，以及由於渠道庫存高和現金緊張，分銷商的需求疲軟。23年上半年，在線銷售同比下降2％（不包括外匯，增長6.4％）。GP利潤率同比增長2.2個百分點至55.2％，這要歸功於原材料價格（即低密度聚乙烯和棕櫚油）疲軟，但被某些KA賬戶折扣的擴大所抵消。由於運營去槓桿化，分銷成本與銷售的比率同比增長7.8個百分點。由於員工成本上漲（由於研發人員的額外招聘和工資上漲），管理費用與銷售額的比率同比增長了6.9個百分點。因此，該公司在23年上半年錄得4.22億港元的營業虧損（營業利潤率爲-19％），而22年上半年的營業虧損爲1.04億港元（營業利潤率爲-3.6％）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。