MELCO INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT LTD.(0200.HK):2Q RESULTS IN-LINE; NEW PROPERTY OPENING LEVERED TOWARDS STRONG SUMMER SEASON TRAFFIC
MELCO INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT LTD.(0200.HK):2Q RESULTS IN-LINE; NEW PROPERTY OPENING LEVERED TOWARDS STRONG SUMMER SEASON TRAFFIC
Investment Thesis
投資論文
2Q23 Melco's operating revenue slightly exceeds expectations: Net revenue was
23年第二季度新濠的營業收入略高於預期：淨收入爲
USD947.9m (+32% q-o-q) to 64.5% of 2Q19 level, slightly surpassing the Bloomberg consensus estimate by 3%, and of which non-gaming revenue accounted for 18.9% (+6.8 pct vs 2Q19). Adjusted property EBITDA was USD267.3m (+40% q-o-q) to 59.7% of 2Q19 level, implying 28.2% margin (-2.4pct vs 2Q19 but +1.6pct q-o-q). We see EBITDA margin to continue expanding with continued ramp-up of mass market traffic and rising contribution from higher-margin non-gaming businesses.
9.479億美元（環比增長32％）至2019年第二季度水平的64.5％，略高於彭博社的共識估計的3％，其中非博彩收入佔18.9％（與2019年第二季度相比增長6.8％）。調整後的房地產息稅折舊攤銷前利潤爲2.673億美元（環比增長40％），爲2019年第二季度水平的59.7％，這意味着利潤率爲28.2％（與2019年第二季度相比爲-2.4個百分點，但環比增長1.6個百分點）。我們預計，隨着大衆市場流量的持續增加以及利潤率更高的非博彩業務的貢獻增加，息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率將繼續擴大。
Macau gaming recovery in line with the industry: 1) In Macau, the gross gaming
澳門博彩業的復甦與行業一致：1) 在澳門，博彩總額
revenue (GGR) of three main properties was USD860m in 2Q23 to 62.6% of 2Q19 level, outpacing the 2Q Macau market recovery by 0.6pct. VIP and mass market (including slot machines) GGR was USD177/682m, which were respectively 31.8% and 83.6% of 2Q19 levels, slightly trailing the industry average by 3.3pct/2.4pct (vs 5.8pct/5.5pct in 1Q19).
三家主要物業的收入（GGR）在23年第二季度爲8.6億美元，爲2019年第二季度的62.6％，比第二季度澳門市場的復甦速度高出0.6個百分點。VIP和大衆市場（包括老虎機）的GGR爲177/6.82億美元，分別爲2019年第二季度水平的31.8％和83.6％，略低於行業平均水平3.3個百分點/2.4個百分點（而2019年第一季度爲5.8個百分點/5.5個百分點）。
We believe the faster recovery can be attributed mainly to the gradual ramp-up of Studio City Phase II, which has driven a 1.5pct/1.4pct increase in the company's VIP/mass market share compared to 1Q23. Additionally, with the peak summer season arriving, Melco's market share is expected to further improve with the newly added non-gaming facilities such as the indoor water park. 2) Regarding overseas operations, the GGR of CoD Manila was USD126m to 60.1% of 2Q19 level and the GGR of the Cyprus properties (including CoD Mediterranean and three satellite casinos) was 137.1% of 2Q19 level.
我們認爲，更快的復甦主要歸因於Studio City第二階段的逐步增加，這使該公司的VIP/大衆市場份額與23年第一季度相比增長了1.5個百分點/1.4個百分點。此外，隨着夏季旺季的到來，隨着室內水上樂園等新增加的非博彩設施，新濠的市場份額預計將進一步提高。2）在海外業務方面，CoD Manila的GGR爲2019年第二季度水平的1.26億美元至60.1％，塞浦路斯房產（包括CoD Mediterraneary和三個衛星賭場）的GGR爲2019年第二季度的137.1％。
Sustained ramp-up of Studio City during the peak summer season: 1) In 2Q23, room revenue recovered to 92.7% of 2Q19 level as the occupancy rate of Epic Tower (opened in April) was above 90% while other properties achieved occupancy rates above 80%. With the anticipated opening of W Hotel in September, providing an additional 12.9% (560 rooms) of room capacity, we expect the company's room revenue in 3Q23 to surpass that in 3Q19. 2) We attribute the high growth in entertainment & retail revenue (161% of the 2Q19 levels) was primarily due to the significant contribution from the indoor and outdoor water parks and concerts. The company plans to host 90 concerts over the next three years and will reintroduce the large-scale performance, 'The House of Dancing Water,' which is expected to sustain high growth in the non-gaming business. 3) Opex up from USD2.0m to USD2.4m in 2Q23, and is expected to stabilize at USD2.5m after the opening of W Hotel in 3Q23 (vs USD3.0m in 2019). This 20-25% permanent cost savings can be translated into 200bps margin.
在夏季旺季，Studio City的持續增長：1）在23年第二季度，由於Epic Tower（4月開業）的入住率超過90％，而其他物業的入住率則達到80％以上，客房收入恢復至2019年第二季度的92.7％。W 酒店預計將於9月開業，額外提供12.9％（560間客房）的客房容量，我們預計該公司在2013年第三季度的客房收入將超過2019年第三季度的水平。2）我們將娛樂和零售收入的高增長（佔2019年第二季度水平的161％）歸因於室內和室外水上樂園和音樂會的巨大貢獻。該公司計劃在未來三年內舉辦90場音樂會，並將重新推出大型演出《水舞之屋》，預計該演出將維持非博彩業務的高增長。3) 運營支出從200萬美元增加到23年第二季度的240萬美元，預計在23年第三季度W Hotel開業後將穩定在250萬美元（而2019年爲300萬美元）。這20-25％的永久成本節省可以轉化爲200個基點的利潤。
Earnings Forecast & Rating: We maintain our net revenue forecasts as of HKD32.8/ 38.8/43.4bn for 2023-2025 and our 2023-2025 adjusted property EBITDA forecasts as of HKD9.0/11.7/13.8bn, corresponding to 2023-2025 EV/adjusted property EBITDA of 9x/ 7x/6x. We maintain a 'Buy' rating.
收益預測和評級：我們維持2023-2025年淨收入預測爲32.8港元/38.8/434億港元，維持2023-2025年調整後的房地產息稅折舊攤銷前利潤預測爲9.0/117/138億港元，相當於2023-2025年EV/調整後的房地產息稅折舊攤銷前利潤爲9倍/7x/6倍。我們維持 “買入” 評級。
Risk: Slower-than-expected recovery in Macau's tourism, tighter-than-anticipated mainland visa policies, and diversion of gambling demand to overseas markets.
風險：澳門旅遊業的復甦低於預期，內地簽證政策比預期的要緊，賭博需求轉移到海外市場。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。