MOBVISTA INC.(1860.HK):EYES ON UPSIDE FROM ROAS MODE
MOBVISTA INC.(1860.HK):EYES ON UPSIDE FROM ROAS MODE
We expect Mobvista's 2Q23E results to be moderate, with solid profit (estimated at US$6.02mn) but mild rev growth (forecasting rev +14% YoY, vs. previous estimate of +22%). The high interest rate environment limits ads budget from game developers in 1H23E. Looking ahead, we expect stronger momentum in 2H23E (forecasting rev >30% YoY growth), backed by:1) ROAS mode with enhanced algorithm to attract midcore & hardcore game ads budget; and 2) further upside from deeper cooperation with Google. We are positive on its long- term margin improvement, with narrowing loss of Reyun, higher ads efficiency and lower incentives. We keep our earnings forecast unchanged. Maintain BUY with SOTP-based TP at HK$6.3 (1.2x/1.0x FY23/24E P/S, or 58x/40x FY23/24E P/E, with 31% earnings CAGR in FY23-25E).
我們預計 Mobvista 的 2Q23E 業績將溫和，利潤穩健（估計爲602萬美元），但增長溫和（預計同比增長14％，而之前的估計爲+22％）。在 1H23E 中，高利率環境限制了遊戲開發者的廣告預算。展望未來，我們預計 2H23E 的勢頭將更強勁（預測同比增長超過 30%），這得益於：1) ROAS 模式採用增強算法，以吸引中核和硬核遊戲廣告預算；2) 與谷歌的深化合作將進一步帶來上行空間。我們對其長期利潤率的提高持樂觀態度，Reyun的虧損縮小，廣告效率更高，激勵措施降低。我們維持收益預測不變。維持買入，基於SOTP的目標價爲6.3港元（1.2倍/1.0倍的23/24E財年市盈率，或58x/40倍的23/24財年市盈率，FY23-25E 的收益複合年增長率爲31％）。
Expecting solid earnings in 2Q23E despite ads headwinds. After a solid start in 1Q23, we expect 2Q23E rev to accelerate (forecasting rev +14% YoY).The growth should be slightly moderate (vs. previous estimate of +22%), mainly due to: 1) shrinking ads budget from long-tail game developers in challenging macro and high-interest-rate environment, as developers focus more on existing games and in-app purchase monetization; and 2) limited contribution from Google cooperation in early stage. However, we expect bottom line to remain intact at US$6.02mn in 2Q23E (implying adj. NPM at 2.4%), for its higher efficiency and better cost control (e.g. cloud expenses).GPM should improve sequentially to 19.7% in 2Q23E (+0.5ppts QoQ), supported by better targeting and enhanced algorithm.
儘管有廣告不利因素，但預計 2Q23E 的收益將保持穩健。在 23 年第一季度開局穩健之後，我們預計 2Q23E 的增速將加速（預測同比增長 14%）。增長應該略爲溫和（之前的估計爲 +22%），這主要是因爲：1）在充滿挑戰的宏觀和高利率環境中，長尾遊戲開發商的廣告預算萎縮，因爲開發者更多地關注現有遊戲和應用內購買獲利；2）谷歌合作的早期貢獻有限。但是，我們預計 2Q23E 的底線將保持不變，爲602萬美元（暗示調整。NPM 爲2.4％），因爲它具有更高的效率和更好的成本控制（例如雲支出）。在更好的定位和增強的算法的支持下，GPM 在 2Q23E（+0.5ppts QoQ）中應連續提高到 19.7%。
High visibility for 2H23E to accelerate with ROAS mode and cooperation with Google. We expect Mobvista to deliver stronger momentum in 2H23E (forecasting rev >30% YoY growth), boosted by: 1) further upside from deeper cooperation with Google, and 2) algorithm optimization in in-app purchase of ROAS mode to attract rising budget from midcore & hardcore games.Mintegral rev accelerated in Jul, with strong game season. Midcore and hardcore games vertical would continue to climb up, in our view. In terms of margin, we keep full-year forecast unchanged (adj. NM at 2.1% in FY23E). In the long run, Mobvista would benefit from AIGC initiatives (e.g. XMP tools), to optimize ads efficiency with rich formats and stronger analytics capability.
2H23E 的知名度很高，可以通過 ROAS 模式和與谷歌的合作加速。我們預計 Mobvista 將在 2H23E 中提供更強勁的勢頭（預測同比增長超過 30%），這得益於：1）與谷歌更深入的合作將進一步上漲；2）應用內購買 ROAS 模式的算法優化，以吸引中核和硬核遊戲的預算不斷增加。Mintegral 在 7 月份加速增長，遊戲季表現強勁。在我們看來，中核和硬核遊戲垂直行業將繼續攀升。在利潤率方面，我們維持全年預測不變（adj.新墨西哥州在 FY23E 中爲 2.1%）。從長遠來看，Mobvista將受益於AIGC的舉措（例如XMP工具），通過豐富的格式和更強大的分析能力來優化廣告效率。
Maintain BUY. We maintain our financials forecast unchanged, with TP at HK$6.3 (by assigning 30x FY23E P/E to ad-tech biz and 3.3x FY23E P/S to mar-tech biz).
維持買入。我們維持財務預測不變，目標價爲6.3港元（將30倍的 FY23E 市盈率分配給廣告科技業務，將3.3倍的 FY23E 市盈率分配給營銷科技業務）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。