Guimu's net profit declined 26.68% year over year, and ROE fell 5.81 pct year over year. 1) The company achieved operating income of 27.565 billion yuan in 2022, -7.72% over the same period last year, and achieved net profit of 7.507 billion yuan to the mother, -26.68% year on year.
2) The company achieved ROE of 9.99% in 2022 (falling below 10% for the first time in 19 years), down 5.81 pct from '21, and still 4.68 pct higher than the industry average. As of the end of '22, the equity multiplier was 4.30, down 0.21 from the beginning of the year, and was still significantly higher than the industry average of 3.29. 3) The contribution of brokerage, proprietary, investment banking, interest, and asset management business revenue (excluding other businesses) was 29%, 22%, 29%, 12%, and 7%, respectively. Among them, the share of brokerage firms increased by 3 pct, and the share of self-operated businesses declined by 12 pct.
The leading position in the investment banking business has been stabilized, and the market share of brokerage loans has both increased. 1) The company achieved investment banking revenue of 5.927 billion yuan in '22, +5.24% over the same period last year. The total underwriting scale of corporate stocks and bonds reached 1379.4 billion yuan in '22, -11.05% year-on-year. The market share fell to 11.43% from 12.03% at the end of '21; of these, the IPO underwriting scale reached 55.7 billion yuan, +4.83% year on year, and the market share rose to 10.66%. 2) According to the annual report, the company's annual stock fund trading volume market share reached a record high. We estimate that the brokerage business market share is close to 3.5%, but due to the 17.35% year-on-year decline in revenue from consignment financial products, brokerage revenue fell 4.91% year on year to 5.93 billion yuan. 3) The company's net interest revenue increased 36.57% year-on-year to 2,391 million yuan in '22. The balance of the company's two loans in '22 was 60 billion yuan, with a market share of 3.9%, up 0.24 pct from the beginning of the year.
Proprietary income has been cut in half, and asset management business continues to improve. 1) As of the end of '22, the size of corporate financial investment assets increased 22.9% from the beginning of the year to 258.031 billion yuan, of which the size of fund and stock assets increased 9% and 22% year-on-year to 104.83 and 28.56 billion yuan. In '22, the company achieved self-operated revenue of 4,532 billion yuan, -43.52% over the same period last year. 2) In '22, the company achieved revenue from large asset management business of 1,473 billion yuan, an increase of 5.65% over the previous year. In terms of asset management, the company's asset management scale increased 11.74% from the beginning of the year to 477.4 billion yuan in '22, of which the scale of pooled asset management increased 27% from the beginning of the year to 204.852 billion yuan. In terms of fund management, the scale of public fund management increased 16.92% from the beginning of the year to 5646 billion yuan.
According to the annual report data and indicators such as lowering the return on investment, it is predicted that the company's BVPS for 2023-2025 will be 9.78/10.99/12.48 yuan respectively (the original forecast for 23-24 will be 10.65/12.05 yuan). According to the comparable company valuation method, a 30% premium rate will be maintained, and the company will be given 2.90 xPb in 2023, corresponding to the target price of 28.36 yuan, maintaining the increase in holdings rating.
Risk warning
Systemic risk suppresses non-bank financial services and valuations; there is uncertainty about proprietary investment performance; policies in the securities industry and even capital markets have been tightened beyond expectations.