The shipping market is reviving and the ship leasing market is booming: ship leasing transactions have become one of the important financing methods for shipping enterprises in the world. China's ship leasing industry has made achievements in terms of business scale, customer level and business diversity in recent years. With the change of the pattern of the global shipping industry, the integration of industry capital and financial capital of the shipping industry is becoming stronger and stronger, and relying more on professional operating leasing may become a new business growth point of the ship leasing industry. At present, the shipping industry is more active, the global second-hand ship trading market and new shipbuilding market are recovering, the demand for ship products by shipping enterprises continues to be strong, and the leasing industry fully enjoys cyclical dividends.
China ship chartering has the courage to explore innovation and enjoy periodic dividends: the company gives full play to the professional advantages of "understanding ships", grasps the periodic layout, and forms a unique competitive operation mode. In recent years, the company actively undertakes the important task of reform vanguard, adheres to the high proportion dividend policy, and strengthens the governance efficiency through the improvement of risk control system, professional manager reform, equity incentive plan and so on. In the evaluation of "double hundred actions" of state-owned enterprises in 2021, it won the highest evaluation level "benchmark".
The LNG track welcomes new opportunities for development: with the prominent value of natural gas as a clean energy, the global supply and demand increases sharply, the diversification of flows and the flexibility of modes are good for the LNG shipping market. In the short term, the uncertainty of LNG trade affected by geopolitics increases; in the long run, with the successive launch and secondary choice of long-term Association projects, the diversified transport preferences of exporters and the long-term existence of the gap between supply and demand under the superposition of policies, LNG trade is expected to maintain an upward trend. From January to July 2022, a total of 103 LNG carriers were ordered worldwide, breaking an all-time high and an increase of 184% over the same period in 2021. It is expected that LNG ship orders will remain at a high level from 2022 to 2024. New shipbuilding market volume and price flying, the situation that supply falls short of demand will benefit the development of the leasing market.
China ship leasing marine clean energy equipment industry chain layout, gain first-mover advantage: the company ploughed deep into the field of LNG equipment, by the end of June 2022 has 20 clean energy equipment, such as LNG, LPG, super-large gas carrier (VLGC), large floating LNG-FSRU, etc., forming a unique and complete offshore clean energy storage-transport system in the industry, gaining first-mover and cost advantage. At the same time, through the establishment of strategic cooperation with upstream and downstream enterprises, the whole industry chain layout LNG trade chain.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: with the recent improvement in the shipping market, shipowners' demand for enhanced transport capacity has increased significantly; environmental requirements such as "carbon peak, carbon neutralization", desulphurization and denitrification have increased demand for alternative clean energy. Ships' own environmental requirements are constantly improving, and these factors are expected to enable the company's profit level to grow continuously and rapidly. We maintain the company's profit forecast of HK $0.27,0.31 and HK $0.35 respectively from 2022 to 2024, and the current share price corresponds to PB of 0.65X, 0.59X and 0.53X, respectively. Maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the risk of reducing the quality of loans receivable; the risk of interest rate fluctuations; the risk of customer payment default; the risk of foreign exchange rate fluctuations; the risks that may be brought about by the high periodicity of marine enterprises; and the competitive risks of the global leasing industry.