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万宝盛华(02180.HK):人力资源优质标的 低估值稳增长凸显投资价值

國盛證券 ·  Nov 6, 2019 00:00  · Researches

  The company is a leading human resources service provider with outstanding flexible employment development. The company was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2019. The major shareholders are MAN Group (36.87%) /CITIC Industrial Fund (35.42%). In 2016-18, the company's revenue CAGR was 24% to $2.49 billion, and adjusted net profit CAGR of 36% to $113 million, achieving rapid growth. By business, 19H1 flexible employment/headhunter/RPO/other revenue accounted for 87%/10%/1%/2%, up 35%/8%/1%/9% year on year, gross profit accounted for 48%/42%/5%/5%/5%, gross margin was 11.4%/91.9%/90.2%/45.4%, and flexible employment development was outstanding. The company's leverage effect is gradually showing, and there is plenty of capital on hand, which is expected to help accelerate the release of performance. The main leverage effect of the company comes from the expansion of the management radius of its own employees. Currently, the number of its own employees: expatriate employees is around 1:100, which is expected to be comparable to the 1:200 level of international peers or even higher in the future. The adjusted net profit/gross profit (service fee revenue) of the 2019 H1 company increased 2.7% to 18.9% year on year, and the leverage effect is gradually showing. Furthermore, the company currently has more than 900 million dollars and is quite abundant, providing a guarantee for business expansion. The overall space of the human services industry is large and scattered, but flexible employment is a better track. The growth rate and concentration are higher, and the Matthew effect and scale effect are remarkable, providing fertile ground for leaders to accelerate expansion. In 2014-18, the scale of China's human resources solutions (headhunting+flexible employment+RPO) increased by 24% to 162.8 billion. It is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of around 20% in the future, while CR5 is only 4.8%, and the market is still scattered. Flexible employment is a better racetrack compared to headhunters: the 60 billion scale of flexible employment is still lower than the 100 billion headhunters, but flexible employment can maintain a compound growth of 20%-30% and has anti-cyclical properties; furthermore, flexible employment is used frequently by major clients, can easily form customer stickiness and Matthew effects, and focus on team orientation, and can easily form standardization and scale effects. Therefore, leaders with first-mover scale advantages and financial strength will accelerate their own expansion and increase industry concentration. The CR5 for flexible employment is 9.3% higher than the overall level. The company's flexible employment continues to grow at a high rate and will build a digital platform. In 2016-18, revenue from flexible employment increased by 24% to $2.124 billion, and the number of employees benefiting from flexibility increased by 14% to 31,000 and their wages and service fees increased; during the same period, gross profit, that is, service fees increased by 26% to $255 million, and gross profit margin increased by 0.3 pct to 12.0%. Flexible employment is expected to continue to grow at a high rate along with the increase in the share of professional jobs with higher wages and mark-up rates in mainland regions with stronger growth. 2019H1 revenue increased 35% year over year, showing an accelerated growth trend. In the future, it will build a digital platform to increase long-tail small B revenue, expand the size of the C-side talent pool, improve operational efficiency, and expand the contribution of flexible utilization of industrial performance. The future strategy All in Flexible Employment will seize growth opportunities through internal and external integration. For existing resources, the more than 20,000 customers accumulated by headhunters are used to channel flexible employment; headhunting teams are encouraged to carry out flexible employment. All of the HK$524 million raised for the IPO will be used for flexible employment, expansion of endogenous business and doubling the number of own employees within 2 years, while seeking mergers and acquisitions opportunities and technology upgrades. Profit forecast and investment recommendations: The company's adjusted net profit for 19-21 is estimated to be 1.31/1.59/200 million, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.6%/21.3%/26.2%, respectively, corresponding to PE 13/11/9 times. Considering the company's net profit compound growth rate of 24% in 19-21 and continued steady growth in performance, plus the company's cash assets are close to 1 billion dollars and the margin of safety is obvious, we conservatively believe that the company's reasonable market value in 19/20 was RMB 26.32 billion, and the target price in 2019 was HK$14.1, corresponding to PE 20 times, covering 20 times for the first time, giving it a “buy” rating. Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuations, risks associated with political factors, intense market competition, risk of interruption in the use of trademarks and intellectual property rights, risk of excessive reliance on major customers, risk of strategy execution falling short of expectations.

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